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China’s nuclear threat theory: A reality check

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Despite economic and financial meetings and open communication channels, the U.S. political rhetoric against China continues unabated, reflecting double standards in efforts to establish sustainable ties between the two economic superpowers. In a recent development, according to a New York Times report, US President Joe Biden has ordered US forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea. It sounds as if the US President is instructing the military to brace for doomsday. This indicates that the US is not yet ready to abandon its military misadventures.

Interestingly revelations that in March, the US president approved a highly classified nuclear strategy plan named “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” which for the first time reoriented the US’ deterrent strategy to focus on the so-called threat posed by China’s rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal. The Pentagon believes China’s stockpiles will rival the size and diversity of the US’ and Russia’s over the next decade. But frankly speaking it has no comparison, relevance and objectivity. Critical analysis ironically reveals that US’ security is built on the insecurity of other countries. Apparently the US desires to maintain its hegemonic status and ensures its absolute superiority in power, with nuclear weapons being a crucial tool in maintaining its global dominance. So this new nuclear strategy plan is an excuse for expanding its nuclear arsenal and sustaining its military hegemony.

Many published reports and research papers clearly indicate that China and the US have fundamentally different narratives and perceptions of the strategic role of nuclear weapons. China’s nuclear strategy is self-defense and is committed to the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. Moreover, China does not engage in any nuclear arms race with any other country and keeps its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for its own national security. The notion of establishing an offensive nuclear hegemony or pursuing the so-called goal of rivalling the nuclear arsenal size of the US does not align with China’s strategic logic. Thus China’s development of nuclear weapons is aimed at avoiding threats from other nuclear-armed states.

Additionally, China’s nuclear development follows its own set pace, including a measured increase in the quantity and quality of its nuclear arsenal, which will not be persuaded by the US’ interference. Therefore due to rapidly emerging geopolitical and geostrategic scenarios in Asia Pacific, South Sea China, Middle East and around the globe, it is a necessary measure for China to safeguard its national security and territorial integrity which seems to be a legitimate act of self-defense. Many international watchdogs and security organizations indicate that in recent years, the US has invested heavily to miniaturize nuclear weapons, lowering the threshold of their use in real-combat, and used nuclear weapons as a bait to hijack its allies and partners. Actually the proliferation of nuclear risks has become a bitter reality.

It is better for the US policy makers to be unrestrained from the Cold War mentality, recognize that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, thus it should reduce the role of nuclear weapons in national and collective security policies, and take concrete actions to promote global strategic stability, instead of doing the opposite. Therefore, the US should stop or discontinue its smearing and hyping up against China and try to build bridges of mutual trust with China through dialogue and sincerity which is the way forward to secure peace, stability and harmony in the region and globe alike. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning termed the US China nuclear threat as a convenient pretext to shirk its obligation of nuclear disarmament, expand its own nuclear arsenal, and seek absolute strategic predominance.

It seems that the US Government and policymakers have acknowledged the growing threat posed by China’s nuclear arsenal, with broad support from lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Pranay Vaddi, a key official on arms control at the White House’s National Security Council, confirmed that the US has shifted its strategic focus toward China and other nuclear-armed nations, highlighting a “new and dangerous era” marked by evolving proliferation risks and rapid technological changes. In response, the US is pursuing a more than $1 trillion modernization of its nuclear triad, including new intercontinental ballistic missiles, bombers and submarines. However, programs like the Sentinel missiles, B-21 Raider and Columbia-class submarines are facing escalating costs and technical challenges.

In summary, the size of China’s nuclear arsenal is not on the same level with the US. China follows a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons and always keeps its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required by national security. We have no intention to engage in any form of arms race with others. On the contrary, the US possesses the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world. Even so, it prefers a first-use nuclear deterrence policy, and has invested heavily to upgrade its nuclear triad and blatantly devised nuclear deterrence strategies against others. It is the US who is the primary source of nuclear threat and strategic risks in the world. The document vividly reflects the US hysteria against China propelling for nuclear conflict, which is extremely dangerous.

Definitely, the US hype surrounding China’s nuclear arsenal serves as a calculated tactic to justify and bolster its own nuclear weapons program for political manoeuvring and strategic objectives. Chinese policymakers have consistently urged the US to cease nuclear partnerships, avoid “extended deterrence” arrangements, withdraw nuclear weapons deployed overseas and halt the development of a global missile defence system. At international forums, including the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs, China has emphasized the need for nuclear-weapon states to adopt a no-first-use policy as an effective measure to reduce strategic risks. Both countries should focus on fulfilling their responsibilities for nuclear disarmament by significantly reducing their arsenals and creating conditions for broader global disarmament process. Last but not the least, both countries should promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and stop hyping China’s Nuclear Threat.

—The writer is President, Pak-China Corridor of Knowledge, Executive Director, CSAIS, regional expert: China, CPEC & BRI.

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