Kanwar Muhammad Dilshad
THE Chinese and Russian presence in Iran is the geopolitical address of this agreement. Under this, China will obtain military concessions in Iran, which overlooks the Persian Gulf, the main oil region. Iran has signed with China mainly, and with Russia, on a secondary basis, a giant agreement in the full meaning of the word, estimated at 400 billion dollars, which is Chinese investment and military support in Iran in exchange for hydrocarbons, which extends for 25 years. The agreement marks a new geopolitical era in the world, especially in the entire East region, not just the Middle East. According to the outlines that have surfaced so far about this agreement, China has invested 400 billion dollars in various sectors such as infrastructure, from motorways and railways related to trains, including express and air navigation, the modernization of the marine merchant fleet and the telecommunications sector, then huge investment will go to the oil and gas sector. In return, China will obtain concessions in the field of gas and oil and the payment will be made in the national currency of each country. Moreover, Iran will permit China to have a military presence in the country with the Russians.
The agreement, which will be ratified by Parliaments of the two countries to enter into force, is a real surprise for the world for two reasons. The first is the huge Chinese investment, which amounts to 400 billion dollars over 25 years, at a rate of 16 billion dollars annually. It is not possible to find an investment of this magnitude. The second reason is reflected in the huge geopolitical consequences of this agreement. Iran suffers from a severe US embargo, crippling its economic capabilities and preventing its development. Despite its reliance on itself to achieve a quantum leap in the agricultural sector, the pharmaceutical industry and some other industries, these efforts remain limited in the light of their needs for rapid technological development in communications as well as transportation, as the development of the country cannot be made without solid infrastructure in the field of transportation nationally and internationally. Waiting for impressive results, which will be positively reflected on Iran due to the Chinese progress in various fields, especially communications and transportation. It is a pioneer in the field of communications technology, including the fifth generation, and a pioneer in building highways, railways and airports. Therefore, the face of Iran may change within a decade if the agreement starts to be implemented starting next year. Its structures will be similar to China, Western countries, or South Korea. There is a strong Chinese ambition in this field to make Iran a symbol of its success in international cooperation and an example that other countries might set in signing agreements with China. At the same time, China may consume all of Iran’s energy production from oil and gas, and thus will relieve Iran of betting a lot on the international market and bypassing US sanctions. China will guarantee itself energy away from international political volatility and US manoeuvres.
The Chinese and Russian presence in Iran remains the geopolitical address of this agreement. Under the agreement, China will obtain military concessions in Iran, which overlooks the Persian Gulf, the main oil region. On the one hand, no one will now be able to attack Iran militarily because of Russian and Chinese interests. This presence will translate into strengthening the capability of the Iranian Army with the latest weapons, including the Russian anti-air defence system and the S-400 missiles. At the same time, the Chinese and Russians will have facilitation access to the Arabian Gulf and consequently the entire Middle East. This fact is more important, thanks to the land extension, that is, the roads that will link China and Iran through Pakistan, a situation similar to the roads that link the eastern and western American coast from it, but this time it is based on the so-called Silk Road, which is structuring global trade now and in the future. Iran is gaining more strength for Chinese ambitions by virtue of Iran having 15 common border points between the navy and the land. Iran shares the land borders with Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey and Turkmenistan, while it shares the maritime borders with Russia and Kazakhstan in the Caspian Sea and with all the Arab Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and the Sultanate of Oman. In turn, China shares 15 land and sea borders with Russia which means that this agreement affects geopolitically dozens of Asian countries and Russia. In the exercise of this agreement, the three countries held military manoeuvres last December in the waters of the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, and they were a surprise to the West, but without their understanding of the true dimensions of these manoeuvres, which are currently translated into a huge geopolitical agreement.
Perhaps one of the prominent headlines of this agreement is the adoption of national currencies between Beijing and Tehran in addition to Russia, and even Pakistan may enter this dynamic, thanks to its presence between China and Iran, and it will be an important link in commercial and investment activity. And Iran will finally get rid of the hegemony of the dollar which stands as a Sword of Damocles at its head and prevents its development due to the difficulty of acquiring what it needs from the international market as a result of the US sanctions. In turn, China will have made strides in fixing its currency, the Yuan, in world trade to hit the dollar’s hegemony. One of the conditions that China claims to the world is to make its currency a major instead of the dollar or a peer in global trade. This agreement strikes the interests of the West in depth and even financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Thanks to the agreement, the Iranian market has become closed to international investments, including European ones, and thus the Europeans lose a promising market for investment. All deals go to China. Other countries will bet on the Chinese model because it will exempt them from requesting loans from the international financial institutions that are controlled by the West. They may pay in their national currencies and natural resources and escape the cumbersome conditions and benefits that hinder their development. This strategic agreement means the end of major US and Israeli manoeuvres, which they have been planning for decades to weaken the Iranian regime in order to topple it, and the last episode was Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement overseen by the United Nations and European countries as well as China and Russia. Now the result is counterproductive, thanks to China, which is military and commercial power, unlike Russia, which has only military and commercially weak power. This agreement, insofar as it protects Iran and strikes Washington’s plans for this country, gives China the qualitative leap towards its transformation into a true superpower. It is an extraordinary link in the course of the “Chinese era”.
—The writer is former Federal Secretary Election Commission of Pakistan and currently Chairman National Democratic Foundation.
