China-India rivalry in global politics
THE relationship between India and China is indeed complex and has been a topic of much discussion and analysis over the past decade. Both countries are rising powers with regional and global ambitions and their emergence has significant implications on the strategic order of South Asian region and international politics. The rivalry gained traction among scholars and decision makers in the last 60 years due to the legacy of hostilities between the two countries, especially the border skirmishes and war of 1962. Both countries engaged themselves in territorial disputes like divergent political ideologies, differing views on Tibet, nuclear non-proliferation policies and other bilateral issues but in vain.
The rise to power of China and India has been seen by some as a new “great game” in the making. This term refers to the competition for power and influence between imperial powers in Central Asia during the 19th and early 20th centuries. In the current context, it suggests that China and India are engaged in a struggle for dominance in Asia and beyond. The rivalry is based on a number of factors. Economic globalization has played a significant role as both countries have benefited from increased economic growth and are competing for resources such as hydrocarbons and metals. In addition, as rising powers, both countries have developed a sense of entitlement and are more protective of their assets, including water resources. This has contributed to the complexity of their relationship and the difficulty of resolving longstanding issues.
The strategies of China and India in dealing with each other have been influenced by their relative power and status. China, as the larger and more powerful of the two, has sometimes been seen as being “bossy” or assertive in its dealings with India. India, for its part, has sought to balance China’s power through alliances with other countries and by investing in its own military capabilities. Despite efforts at border negotiations, confidence-building measures and official dialogue, relationship between China and India remain strained on a number of issues. These include the border dispute, Pakistan’s actions, the status of Tibet and India’s admission to various international institutions. Bilateral trade and investment have also been a source of tension, as China has been seen to benefit disproportionately from these arrangements.
The factors that militate against unregulated competition between China and India include the risk of conflict, the potential for destabilizing alliances with other countries and the need for cooperation on global issues such as climate change and humanitarian intervention. As both countries continue to rise in power and influence, it will be important for them to find ways to manage their differences and avoid escalating tension.
The China-Indian rivalry has increasingly taken on a maritime dimension, both countries have deployed their naval capabilities in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and Western Pacific. India is particularly concerned about China’s expanding blue-water naval capabilities, including submarines and its access to ports in the region. Meanwhile, China is wary of India’s growing role in the Western Pacific and its perceived alignment with the US-led containment scheme which allows it to leverage on its partners’ blue-water assets. In 2014, Chinese naval ships sailed through Lombok Strait, marking first time a new route was charted from South China Sea to IOR and conducted a drill. War remains a remote prospect,
Despite the fact that the seas are an ambiguous, international medium, the patterns of naval buildup and deployments have not necessarily shaped mutual perceptions between China and India as pure security seekers. Rather, the rivalry has its roots in unresolved terrestrial political problems, notably the land boundary dispute, over which a brief war was fought in 1962. Despite numerous talks, including the Special Representative talks, no headway has been made in resolving this dispute. The Border Defence Cooperation Agreement was instituted in 2013. While these measures have maintained stability, they have not eliminated the recurrence of incidents along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The rivalry of both countries in the Asia-Pacific region have a variety of economic, political and security implications.
The May 2020 border skirmishes and subsequent tension have further inflamed public opinion in India and led to measures such as the banning of Chinese mobile apps and closer ties with Quad partners. The future trajectory of the Sino-Indian rivalry remains uncertain, but it is clear that the rivalry will continue to shape the dynamics of the region for the foreseeable future. This competition for influence has resulted in a number of challenges and opportunities for the South Asian countries. On the one hand, they have been able to leverage the economic growth of China and India for their own development, but on other hand, they have been drawn into strategic competition between the two powers.
China has been expanding its economic and diplomatic engagement with South Asian countries through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to build infrastructure and deepen economic integration across the region. India, for its part, has sought to counter China’s influence in the region through a range of diplomatic and economic initiatives. As two of the world’s most populous nations, their actions can have a significant impact on global politics, economics and security. The China-Indian relationship can also have implications for global issues such as climate change, trade and humanitarian intervention. Therefore, it is crucial for policymakers and scholars to continue to engage in dialogue and analysis to prevent any escalation of tension and promote stability and cooperation in the region.
—The writer is freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
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