China-India-Pakistan complex geopolitical tangle

“Sometimes nothing happens in decades, but sometimes decades happen within weeks.”

WE are passing through a similar geostrategic spectrum. One thing is evident—both diplomacy and military power are essential to win, as Kissinger asserted. Over the last three decades, not only Pakistan but the entire world has undergone a sea change in social, economic, political and technological domains. Fast-track scientific inventions have impacted every sphere of life and Pakistan is no exception. Past truths are being questioned. Socioeconomic development has enabled humans to reinvent their lives. Values too have undergone a questionable change. This shift in lifestyle has also impacted warfare, a phenomenon ingrained in human nature. While the basic principles of war remain, the battlefield has shifted from distant frontlines to urban settlements. Drones and advanced missile technologies have transformed the nature of war, with immense potential to destroy military and civil infrastructure, inflicting widespread human suffering. The internet now beams war into homes like cinema, turning suffering into a spectacle of entertainment.

Religion and state remained interlinked in Europe until the 15th century. In the 18th century, following the decline of the Ottoman Empire, the Muslim world, including Türkiye, witnessed the disintegration of power centres. This led to the emergence of nation-states and the rise of socialist thought in Russia, China and other countries. However, socialism remained a taboo in capitalist nations. In the subcontinent, liberalism gained ground among both Muslim and non-Muslim communities. The dynamic of religion continues to influence Pakistan’s polity. The root issue lies in a governance structure still rooted in feudalism. The lack of education is exploited by both politicians and religious seminaries, reducing voters to mere cannon fodder. Ethnic, religious, sectarian and economic fault lines are manipulated not only by domestic actors but also by external adversaries. The emergence of AI and cyber technology has introduced a new set of challenges and tools for influence.

Liberalism accused religion of hindering technological and social progress. Under British rule, Hindu communities quickly embraced liberalism as a tool for advancement, adapting their faith, which assimilates various modes of worship, to modernity. Conversely, Muslim religious classes resisted change. Muslims bore the brunt of the aftermath of the 1857 War of Independence, being former rulers. Today, Pakistani youth are caught between modernism and conservatism, generating immense psychological stress. In British India, Muslims were among the most exploited communities. Allama Iqbal identified the internal conflict within Muslim youth and used his poetry to awaken political consciousness among Indian Muslims. The Central Indian provinces were centres of education and governance, while the south and north were underdeveloped. The northwest—now Pakistan—remained steeped in tribalism and feudalism. Traditional customs, rawiat, are still enforced by tribal Sardars and baradari leaders. For justice, the common man still turns to the Sardar or Jirga, while the Mullah remains a spiritual guide. This undermines the state’s authority, as social, political, ethnic and economic fault lines persist across generations.

Three generations of Pakistanis have experienced vastly different social, political, technological and economic environments, yet deep-rooted issues remain unresolved. More than half the population is under 40. Today’s youth face internal conflicts not only regarding religion but also in navigating the socio-political landscape shaped by the digital age. With smartphones in hand, they are well-informed about global, regional and internal affairs. The days of blind allegiance are over. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s ruling elite still operate with a 20th-century mindset, treating the masses as exploitable voting machines. Yet, a vast cohort of young, informed voters is emerging as a potential engine of social revolution. Social media has enlightened them about strategic realities, global opportunities and domestic challenges. The flow of information, now at their fingertips, is reshaping generational perspectives and priorities.

Neglecting this rising generation would be a grave mistake. Across the border, India has embraced Hindutva, leading to a decline in secularism and the erosion of tolerance for other communities. This ideology has deeply influenced the Indian youth, prompting social experts like Ajai Shukla to warn of societal regression. Hindutva’s ripple effects extend to Pakistan, reinforcing animosity through Modi-led policies and deepening regional hostilities. Meanwhile, in the northeast, China has emerged as an economic superpower and is rapidly growing militarily. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), along with China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and defence cooperation, has significantly altered the strategic and conventional balance in South Asia. Pakistan’s growing influence in the Middle East and its collaboration with Türkiye in defence matters have added further leverage. True prosperity in South Asia depends on a trilateral peace among China, India and Pakistan.

On the global stage, Pakistan holds immense potential due to its strategic location, abundant natural resources and vibrant youth. Over the past three decades, the global geopolitical landscape has been divided between the Global South under BRICS and the Global North led by the USA. China promotes a shared vision of collective security and indivisible responsibility, while the Global North often relies on coercion and force. Over the last seventy years, Pakistan has experienced both war and peace—sometimes central to global strategies, at other times sidelined. Technological advancements have driven demand for rare earth minerals essential for defence and commercial electronics. Pakistan possesses significant reserves of these minerals in Balochistan, FATA and Gilgit-Baltistan—a treasure that few countries have. This explains the heightened interest of global powers and the proxy wars that seek to destabilize the country.

Following Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad and Operation Bunyan-ul-Marsous, Pakistan’s geopolitical stature has improved both regionally and globally. To maintain and enhance this status, the country must redefine its political structure, ensure economic integration through consistent policies, strengthen its manufacturing capabilities and invest in education, science and technology. Cyber and AI revolutions have reshaped global dynamics in both war and peace, presenting new challenges. With a stable economic and political environment, backed by the combat-tested sixth-largest army in the world, Pakistan remains a strong and strategically significant nation—one that cannot be ignored or conventionally defeated.

—The author is a Brigadier Retired, a decorated officer with 32 years of active combat experience, 30 years in corporate sector as MD/COO. A column writer, Researcher and TV analyst.

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