Following India’s missile, drone and air strikes on Pakistani cities between May 6–10, 2025—which killed 36 civilians and damaged critical infrastructure including mosques and the Neelum-Jhelum Dam—Pakistan turned to its most steadfast ally, China.
As tensions escalate, China’s role as a nuclear power and regional influencer becomes increasingly vital for Pakistan’s defence and diplomatic backing.
The China-Pakistan alliance, rooted in over seven decades of strategic cooperation, has remained resilient through multiple conflicts.
From supplying arms during the 1965 war to offering strong diplomatic backing in 1971, China has consistently supported Pakistan.
Although it remained neutral during the 1999 Kargil conflict, Beijing urged de-escalation, reaffirming its strategic ties with Islamabad.
China also backed Pakistan post its 1998 nuclear tests and has continually emphasized restraint while maintaining robust military and economic ties—most notably through the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through Gilgit-Baltistan.
In global forums like the UN, SCO and BRICS+, China has defended Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir and criticized India’s unilateral moves, especially the 2019 revocation of Articles 370 and 35A.
In the light of India’s recent aggressive and uncalled-for actions, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a strong statement on May 8, 2025, urging India to “exercise restraint and cease all provocative actions against the territorial sovereignty of Pakistan.
” Spokesperson Wang Wenbin emphasized that “regional peace cannot be ensured by unilateral military actions and a disregard for international law.”
China’s UN Ambassador Zhang Jun has reportedly initiated quiet diplomacy among United Nations Security Council (UNSC) members to convene a closed-door emergency session focused on the security situation in South Asia.
Leading Chinese academics, such as Prof.
Lan Jianxue from the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), have published op-eds in Chinese state media condemning India’s airstrikes as “reckless provocations that risk destabilizing the entire region.
” These sentiments are echoed in official think tanks like the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), which have called for a multilateral investigation into India’s actions under the Geneva Conventions and the Rome Statute.
Pakistan has several legal avenues to seek justice and China can be a crucial diplomatic and legal ally in each of these:
1.United Nations Security Council (UNSC)- As a permanent member with veto power, China can advocate for emergency sessions, block any attempts by India to suppress debate and propose resolutions condemning India’s actions under Chapters VI and VII of the UN Charter.
2.International Court of Justice (ICJ) – While China is not a party in the disputes between India and Pakistan at the ICJ, it can support Pakistan by submitting amicus curiae briefs, lobbying other states to join Pakistan’s legal efforts and encouraging ICJ judges to examine India’s actions in relation to the Geneva Conventions, the ENMOD Convention and environmental law.
3.International Criminal Court (ICC) – Although neither Pakistan nor India is a member of the ICC, Pakistan can accept the Court’s jurisdiction on an ad hoc basis in the light of the present situation by lodging a Declaration under article 12(3) of the Statute.
China, despite not being an ICC member itself, can aid Pakistan by providing documentation, satellite evidence and international legal expertise to establish a war crimes dossier.
4.Bilateral and Multilateral Pressure – China can use platforms such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to diplomatically isolate India or encourage regional countries to support de-escalation efforts.
Reinitiate confidence-building measures (CBMs) like ceasefire monitoring at the LoC and mutual hotline communication.
The ongoing confrontation between India and Pakistan should be analyzed using Herman Kahn’s Escalation Ladder, a model introduced in his 1965 book “On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios.
” This ladder consists of 44 rungs that represent escalating levels of severity, ranging from diplomatic tensions to full-scale thermonuclear war.
According to Kahn’s framework, the current situation can be categorized between two specific rungs, Rung 15 (Provocative Breaking Off of Diplomatic Relations), Rung 20 (Intense Conventional War, but not Total War).
The use of drones, missile strikes on civilian areas, destruction of infrastructure and loss of fighter jets indicate that this is a military confrontation with strategic implications.
However, it has not yet escalated into a full conventional war or general mobilization (beyond Rung 25).
Importantly, no nuclear threats have been issued formally, so we remain well below the nuclear thresholds (Rung 30 and above).
In accordance with escalation theory and diplomatic norms, Pakistan should adopt a phased de-escalation strategy, ideally with assistance from China: In Phase I (Legal and Diplomatic Mobilization), Pakistan should present detailed dossiers to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) documenting Indian violations of Articles 2(4), 51 of the UN Charter, Article 56 of Additional Protocol I, and Article 8 of the Rome Statute.
Initiate a media and diplomatic campaign with support from China to apply pressure through the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), ASEAN, and the European Union (EU).
Demand an international fact-finding mission to investigate civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
In Phase II (Military Containment with Deterrence), strengthen border defenses, and air defence while staying ready for full mobilization and activation of the civil defence system and rear area security mechanism, without launching new offensives.
Issue a joint China-Pakistan statement affirming regional peace and warning against further aggression.
Maintain a state of high alert without crossing the nuclear threshold to preserve control over escalation.
In Phase III (Strategic Dialogue and Third-Party Mediation), With China’s mediation, propose the revival of Track II diplomacy and backchannel negotiations, possibly facilitated by neutral states such as Norway or the UAE.
Reinitiate confidence-building measures (CBMs), including ceasefire monitoring along the Line of Control (LoC) and mutual hotline communication.
As India adopts an aggressive stance grounded in nationalist narratives, China’s support will be crucial for stabilizing the region.
This situation is not merely about retaliation; it is also about reaffirming the importance of international law, maintaining regional balance, and recognizing the rights of smaller nations to defend their sovereignty.
With China’s backing, Pakistan can assert both its moral position and strategic advantage in seeking justice without provoking a war that could engulf the subcontinent.
—The writer is a International Law expert with a rich experience in negotiation, mediation and Alternate Dispute Resolution.
