Iqbal Khan
AFGHANISTAN’S election result came at a criti
cal time as the United States is showing more
interest in negotiating a peace settlement with the Taliban to end a war. On December 24, the Russian presidential envoy Zamir Kabulov revealed that Moscow has been invited to the signing ceremony of the Afghan peace agreement, which can be expected in the New Year. Russia is urging that the agreement be signed expeditiously. Preliminary results put President Ashraf Ghani in place to secure a second term. According to Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) Ghani had won a slim 50.64 per cent majority in the September 28, 2019 poll. The final tally would come after the complaints have been reviewed. Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah is a distant second with 39.52 per cent.
If Ghani’s vote percentage holds following the complaints’ investigations, it is sufficient to avoid a run-off. Various candidates, particularly Abdullah, have alleged fraud. Observers and candidates have blasted the IEC over its handling of the count and its repeated disregard of the electoral calendar. Preliminary results originally due on 19 October were repeatedly delayed for what the IEC said were technical issues. On 22 December, Ashraf Ghani welcomed the result and said the country was now on the right path towards prosperity and development. “With the announcement, we are moving now from darkness to light and from uncertainty to a bright future”. Ghani told a jubilant crowd. Abdullah’s Office said in a statement that he did not accept the preliminary results and that the Commission had failed to tackle election fraud. The situation echoes 2014, when both Ghani and Abdullah alleged massive fraud by the other, forcing the United States to broker an awkward power-sharing arrangement that made Ghani President and Abdullah his Chief Executive leading to a dysfunctional government.
The election was touted to be the fairest in Afghanistan’s evolving democracy. But allegations of vote stuffing, illegal balloting and other fraud came almost as soon as the polls had closed. Nearly one million of the initial 2.7 million votes were purged owing to irregularities, meaning the election saw by far the lowest turnout of any Afghan poll. Ultimately, only 1.8 million votes were counted, a tiny number given Afghanistan’s estimated population of 37 million and a total of 9.6 million registered voters. MK Bhadrakumar in his recent article “Afghan peace process annoys Modi government” states that Modi government’s approach to the transition in Afghanistan bears an uncanny resemblance to the situation 30 years ago, in end 1989.“A great power that intervened in Afghanistan was retreating after a bloody conflict that lasted a decade and was washing its hands off its client state; the puppet regime in Kabul was hanging over the abyss; anarchy was let loose in the country; the enemy was at the gates. With an eye on Pakistan, Delhi considered it a matter of realpolitik to offer a lifeline to the Najibullah regime. That was the context in which the then PM Rajiv Gandhi made his famous phone call to the beleaguered Afghan President Najibullah, inviting him to visit India. [And] “In a strikingly similar context, PM Modi made a phone call on 24 December to the incumbent Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to come to India, his second home”. There was conceivably no reason for the Indian establishment to go overboard at this premature stage when it seems likely that there might even be a runoff election for the presidency in Afghanistan”. It is incomprehensible why Delhi should get so excited. Even Ghani’s original mentors, the Americans, exercise restraint. The US Ambassador in Kabul John Bass tweeted on 22 Dec:“We note the release of preliminary results and thank the IEC commissioners and staff for their dedicated, patriotic service to the Afghan people and the Islamic Republic. It’s important for all Afghans to remember: these results are preliminary. Many steps remain before final election results are certified, to ensure the Afghan people have confidence in the results.” Delhi’s excitement over Ghani’s ‘victory’ can only be seen as a put-on show to cover up the profound embarrassment of the Indian security cars who are inebriated by the ‘great game’ that India has been shunted out to the dog house.
As in 1989, an Afghan settlement is being worked out by the international community, and as at that time 30 years ago, India has been excluded from the negotiations. The US, China, Russia and Pakistan are in the driving seat. A peace agreement is all but ready for signature. In appreciation of Islamabad’s help to negotiate the peace agreement, Washington announced on 23 December soon after the famous 2+2 US-Indian meeting of Foreign and Defence Ministers — that the US is allowing Pakistan to rejoin a military training programme following a two-year suspension. Decision “reflects an easing of previously tense relations between the two countries.” However, in the regional context, the US said on 05 December that it supported continued Indian involvement in Afghanistan, even as President Donald Trump looks to withdraw troops.
Reuters has reported that there was no letup in militancy in Afghanistan. Afghan forces are suffering record casualties with Afghan and US officials warning that the toll is not sustainable. As Afghan security forces casualties mounted during 2019, the government pulled back from hundreds of checkpoints in isolated areas that acted as a magnet for Taliban attacks. By the close of 2019, tens of thousands of Afghan civilians, members of the security forces and 2,400 US military personnel have been killed in fighting since 2001. While peace agreement may be in the offing but ground realities indicate that peace in Afghanistan is still a far cry.
—The writer is a freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
