ISLAMABAD – Near-normal to above-normal monsoon rains are expected in Pakistan during August 2025, with maximum departure over northeastern Punjab and southeastern Sindh.
Last month, Pakistan received above-normal rainfall. Monsoon started in the last week of June, with the first spell of the season extending into July and bringing widespread rains to the northern and eastern regions.
Subsequently, around four additional rainfall spells of light to heavy intensity occurred, including a few isolated episodes of very heavy rainfall that triggered severe urban and flash flooding, particularly in the northern and eastern areas. Temperatures remained near normal to slightly below normal across much of the country; however, Gilgit-Baltistan experienced above-normal temperatures.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to transition into a negative phase towards the end of the month. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has already shifted to a negative phase and is likely to remain negative throughout the month of August.
Under these conditions, there is the likelihood of near-normal to above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country. Northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, southeastern Sindh and parts of Balochistan are likely to receive above normal rainfall. Rest of the country is likely to receive nearly normal rainfall during August 2025.
Monthly Temperature Outlook: Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal over mountainous regions in the northern and western parts of the country. The plain areas of eastern Punjab and eastern Sindh, which remain under the influence of monsoon rains, are expected to experience near-normal to slightly below-normal temperature during August 2025.
Impacts: Isolated and localized extreme rainfall events can trigger flash flooding in mountainous areas of Punjab, Kashmir, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and urban flooding with chances of inundation in big metropolitan areas of Punjab and Sindh.
Rainfall will replenish water reservoirs and groundwater resources. Above normal temperatures in mountainous areas of upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir may accelerate ice/glaciers melt, increasing inflow in upper Indus and Kabul Rivers, along with chances of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Intermittent hot and dry conditions between rainfall spells may lead to heat stress in the country’s plains.
Occasional strong winds, windstorms, and hailstorms may affect the seasonal crops and public property. Dengue outbreak due to stagnant water is likely in inundated areas.
