ONE can read a lot or read a little into the recent visit of PM Shahbaz and FM Asim Munir to the USA, and particularly their reception at the White House.
Let us look at what has gone well and what are some of the foreseeable challenges. Before getting into the pros and cons, let us first consider what has changed Trump’s stance about Pakistan. From my perspective, Trump’s relationships are defined by his personality. He appreciates strength and he likes winners and Pakistan gained his respect in May after the 100 hour war. Furthermore, Pakistan played to his ego and endeared itself to him when it nominated him for the Nobel Peace prize. No use to discuss the merits or ridiculousness of the nomination, but in hindsight, it was a brilliant move if Pakistan wanted Trump on their side.
During the recent USA visit, there are many things that went well for Pakistan. First, the symbolism of closeness and high level access was notable. It showed warming ties and a chance of a long term, non-transactional relationship emerging. Army Chief, being in the delegation, also pointed to the acceptance of the US to the role of the military in Pakistan as equal partners to the civilian government. Overall, the visit allowed Pakistan to project diplomatic relevance. Pakistan’s public praise of Trump’s role in the de-escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan in May will also perhaps win sympathy and leverage in the long term.
Second, there seems to be trade and economic momentum building up in the relationship. In July there was a trade agreement aimed at developing oil reserves and lowering tariffs. There were talks about investments in oil, precious metals, agricultural, mining and tech etc. The trade/economic angle gives the visit more substance than mere photo shoots and political postures.
Third, there is increased role of the US in regional issues – such as involvement in the Kashmir issue or facilitating the ceasefire in May. Conversely, Pakistan is increasingly using platforms like the UNGA to raise its concerns on Kashmir, Palestine and regional security and projecting itself as an active player in Muslim and Mideast issues. It is clear that the US is recalibrating its stance in South Asia and engaging more with Pakistan, especially as its tensions increase with India over myriad issues and its desire to counter China’s increasing influence in South Asia.
Beyond the above itemization in the “went well” category, let us look at some of the uncertainties and downsides. First, it is critical to understand that much of the warming in the relationship is tied to Trump – Pakistan supporting his narrative of mediation and kowtowing to his priorities. US politics is very volatile and too much attachment to Trump can be counterproductive. There is high likelihood that the House will go to the Democrats in the midterms and Trump will end up being a lame duck president. And Trump himself is unpredictable and can change his stance on people and issues at a drop of a dime.
Second, the visit can be criticized as widely symbolic and lacking any concrete deliverables. There has been no public statement or guarantees of large scale investment, debt relief, or security commitments. The meeting was close-door and what was discussed inside is not public knowledge hence there is ambiguity in expectations or follow-up actions.
Third, Pakistan has to balance its other relationships and regional dynamics. It has to tread carefully not to undermine its regional partners like China, Saudi Arabia and its neighbours. Traditionally, Pakistan has a tendency to choose between “us versus them” and getting too attached to one over another. Too much closeness with the US could be harmful to Pakistan’s interests lest it causes China and Saudi Arabia to pull back. For one, China, Saudi Arabia and the world at large has issue with Israel over the Gaza war, with the US being Israel’s sole major supporter. What would be Pakistan’s stance vis-a-vie Israel should Trump apply pressure on Pakistan? Pakistan needs to be tread carefully, maintain a balance and make decisions based on its national interest.
It is undeniable that a host of occurrences in the past year has changed Pakistan’s image in the world. It has gained added importance and recognition on the world stage. It has coined formal and informal defence alliances with China and Saudi Arabia. It has opened new doors regionally, particularly with its lost half namely, Bangladesh. Pakistan may be at the cusp of something bigger but we should not lose sight of our national priorities and give in to false illusions. Someone asked me the other day “what do you think of Trump calling PM and FM Munir ‘Great guys’”. I responded “if history is any gauge, Trump can tomorrow claim that he doesn’t even know them if that suits his purpose”.
Pakistan and US have been in a “tactical romance” based on transactional partnerships for decades. There have been many phases to the partnership with each phase showing romance when Washington needed Islamabad for a tactical reason (Cold War, Afghan jihad, War on Terror, etc). When the need faded, the US distanced itself, leaving Pakistan feeling betrayed. Pakistan now has an opportunity to take the relationship beyond a tactical alliance to a strategic alliance, so let us keep our focus on this.
—The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government and a sector development specialist. He is a member of the APP Think Tank and Pakistan’s Buddhist Heritage Promotion Ambassador for GTPL, a company under SIFC.
