Right from the beginning of modern human civilization, from the Ancient Greek walled cities to the Great Roman Empire, from the Pharaohs of Ancient Egypt to the Persian state and last but not the least, from the French Revolution to the Sub-Continent War of Independence, security has remained one of the main attributes of socio-economic development, the well-being of common people and political stability in the world.
Security promotes peace and stability which drives economic sustainability and diversity. Unfortunately, our own land has been entrapped in chaos, borrowing notions of regional as well as world peace, and has suffered huge collateral damage in terms of economic loss, destruction of infrastructure, loss of human capital, and notably, the indigenization of radicalization and terrorism in our society, ruining the spirit of peaceful coexistence, tolerance, and ethnic diversity. Resultantly, sanctuaries, sponsorships, and secret alignments of regional and global forces of evil have succeeded in sowing seeds of disorder, disharmony, and religious disorientation in the country. This self-claimed strategy has achieved nothing but a huge brain drain and a drug-addicted society and system.
Pak-Sino diplomatic ties and bilateral relations remained a strategic balance in the region mitigating spells of hegemony and imperialism. However, with the passage of time ambiguous foreign policy’s engagements, unwise national security narratives, imprudent economic policies, inconsistent political conditions and, most importantly, rise to personalized models of governance achieved no goods for the country and its people remained disconnected and disassociated with the state and system.
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) rescued the country from economic stagnation, energy deficits, broken infrastructure intercity and interprovincial and regional isolation and its Phase-I transformed its socio-economic development and pace. Nevertheless, delayed payments, political volatility and security woes in Pakistan seem to have caused Chinese leadership to believe that their all-weather friend needs a significant structural reform therapy and policy overhaul to qualify for the Phase-II. Thus without a holistic and comprehensive policy shift, Islamabad should keep its expectations from Beijing low.
Pakistan’s constant volatile security environment and increasing militant attacks targeting Chinese workers has now irked the Communist Party of China (CPC) and its leadership. Critical analysis reveals that terrorist attacks in Pakistan surged by 73 percent and the total number of casualties increased by 138 percent after Kabul Fall in August 2021. The two provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan witnessed a surge in attacks by 92 percent and 81 percent in the last 22 months which should be a wake-call for the policy-makers and security-masters.
After the March 24 attack that assassinated five Chinese nationals in the Shangla district of KP, the Prime Minister and military establishment individually assured Chinese officials of the safety and security of their citizens. The recent Pak-Sino joint statement, issued by Pakistan’s Foreign Office, also emphasizes this point.
The Taliban’s support to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) is discrediting our sincere efforts of the Chinese safety and security and CPEC projects in the country. Despite Beijing’s effort to improve relations with the interim set-up of Taliban little has improved so far. Now TTP, MB and ISKP and the Indian RAW axis are damaging the country’s economy, society and system falling to attract inflows of FDIs.
The incumbent government has now announced operation “Azm-e-Istehkam” to eradicate terrorism from the country, which is confronted with opposition, especially from PTI, JUI-F and some regional parties of Balochistan. Muslim League (N), Muslim League (Q) and many religious parties have supported this operation, which augurs well. Hopefully, political divisions will be overcome and national consensus will prevail, launching a joint effort to combat terrorists and terrorism in the country.
The country experienced a severe balance-of-payment crisis from 2017 to 2023; the COVID-19 pandemic badly affected the macro-economy and mired CPEC projects and Pakistan suffered from one of the worst floods in recent history in 2022. The country’s political leadership had already over-promised, so payments to Chinese power producers (IPPs) were delayed. In the last three years, Chinese IPPs frequently registered complaints over delayed payments. Unfortunately, since the CPEC project began, the Chinese officials and business community have dealt with four governments in Pakistan all mired in protests, agitation and uncertainty.
Political instability has besieged economic growth and created impassable social and provincial divisions. Personal glorification and gratification badly ruined social fabrics and nationalistic political narration. Bad governance, corruption, political infighting for provincial influence, elitist model of development, rise to cronies, formation of cartels, judicial and public dispute around Pakistan’s own qualms over CPEC, including concern that economic benefits are not accruing for Pakistanis or locals especially in Balochistan and KPK created irritants. Continued political instability and bureaucratic incompetence has stalled progress on CPEC infrastructure investment and projects. Frequent change and music chair in the CPEC Authority conveyed an undesirable message to the Chinese side.
In summary, somehow Pakistan has miserably failed to cash in on the CPEC Phase-I achievements and moved to industrialisation phase, for which work had to start on establishing special economic zones. Because of the US-China economic and industrial battle the Chinese industry shifted to other countries in the region.
Pakistan entered into unending political instability in 2016 due to which Chinese confidence for investing in Pakistan was shaken gravely. The investment that was once expected to rise to US$62-92 billion tapered at around US$26 billion.
There is no concrete roadmap or timeline for the up-gradation of the CPEC, qualitative industrialization, digitalization, green technologies (Hydrogen Power generation), lithium batteries, EVs and persuasion of open new corridors for growth and livelihood, innovation and the green economy. Even high tech and hybrid agriculture cooperation has not yet been achieved.
Emerging geopolitics, particularly the US-China competition, is making the country’s choices narrowed to strike a delicate balance in its ties with the US and China. IMF conditions and financial woes of the country are gradually pushing the country towards the west zone and the US’s ‘China containment policy’ through trade tariffs, investment curbs and export controls as well as advising allies and friends to avoid Chinese investment are acting like double swords leaving no diplomatic maneuvering for the policy-makers.
The security of Chinese personnel working on CPEC projects in Pakistan must be reassured. Comprehensive military operation against TTP, MB and BLA is need of the hour. Both countries have decided to “enhance counterterrorism cooperation”. Pakistani authorities would be well advised to mobilize the support of local people by addressing their grievances and making them a partner in countering this menace.
Stabilization of domestic politics, comprehensive development plan, inclusion of a third country in CPEC domain/transnational investors, expedition of the SEZs and last but not the least an early solution to the IPP puzzle. Thus the Charter of Economy is the way forward. Channelization of domestic banking deposits to gear-up delayed projects of the CPEC, hybrid security arrangements, zero-tolerance for militancy and extremism, normalcy in relations with neighboring states should be initiated as soon as possible.
The incumbent government must redirect its resources to constructive sectors and achieve missing political stability to persuade China to remake investments in the country. Bureaucratic model of “make-shift arrangements” and rented approach must be realigned through the supremacy of SIFC in the country. National narrative about CPEC is badly missing in the media which must be reformed.
