Climate change and national security
DESPITE clear evidences of climate change and environmental degradation,still there exist misperceptions among a vast majority of Pakistani masses whether there is a climate change.
Indeed, there are three realities about the climate change. The first reality is that, climate change is taking place for the past many decades and it is accelerating with the passage of time.
Two, climate change is mainly caused by human beings though there are many natural causes, boosting this process and environmental degradation. Three, the climate change threatens the national security as a threat multiplier.
In a way, the climate change is related to national security of any state and states like Pakistan are more vulnerable from this perspective.
As per the assessment of the security community from across the globe, the extreme weather conditions have more and direct impact on national security of states.
The national security is an all-encompassing concept including food security, human security, security of water sources, border security and all other aspects of the state security.
Apart the rapidly changing patterns of climate are severely damaging critical military bases, diverting and critically undermining significant national defence resources too.
Analysing its impacts, the climate change is an “accelerant of instability” that affects issues like food, water and energy security.
In fact, it is the major driver of the internal displacement and cross-border migration of the people, a domain of national security. The displacements and migrations are caused by food and water security, which are mainly caused by climate change.
The national security planning is about managing the risks in first phase and ending it all together in subsequent phases. Indeed, the risks of climate change are real and growing with each passing day.
As experienced in the past, risk management is something that militaries do well as compared to other organizations of a state. In Pakistan, the military have helping in this field at the time of floods or any natural calamities.
Indeed, security community of Pakistan has advance contingency planning to tackle the risks associated with climate change. The process needs to be extended to all relevant government departments.
The internal displacements of the masses owing to floods, droughts and other situations, taken place in the past has created demographic issues and increase in the urbanization of main cities.
It is worth mentioning that, out of these displaced people over 70% preferred to settle in the cities rather opting to go back to their ancestral places.
This was mainly because of two factors; one, destruction caused to their houses and farmlands and two, they got jobs and businesses in the main cities. This factor further caused and causing demographic and ethnic problems in major cities.
The Global Climate Risk Index-2020 has placed Pakistan 5th on the list of countries vulnerable to climate change.
The three regions of Pakistan; Thar desert, southern Punjab and southwestern Balochistan are more vulnerable because they totally depend on agriculture and herding, which depend on weather, and weather is marred by climate change.
A recent World Bank report predicted that Pakistan is expected to experience a decline in living standards across its territory by 2050 under both climate sensitive and carbon intensive scenarios.
These poor living standards may lead to poverty, disease, and increase in the crime rate. Such conditions exacerbated by climate change may provide an ideal breeding ground for organized crime, militancy dissident movements, terrorism and violent political uprisings.
The significant aspect of the climate change is that, it is fuelling conflicts based on ethnic and provincial factors. In Pakistan there is growing tensions between provinces over the resource allocation, inequalities especially over the distribution of water from Indus Water System.
The accusations and counter accusations have put Pakistan into a dilemma. The process in turn gave way to provincial and ethnic rivalries. A conflicting situation and likelihood of chaotic environment will impede the political stability and economic progress of Pakistan.
As a way forward, there is to create an awareness campaign about the climate change and environmental degradation all over Pakistan.
In this regard there are some of the suggestions the Government of Pakistan should ponder upon. First, there is a need to give a compulsory coverage of the subject of climate change and its implication in national curricula of all educational institutions.
Two, Government must initiate a national debate over the climate change and its wider implications on the national security while involving the, elected representatives, officials, institutions, organizations and masses for taking necessary remedial measures.
The most important aspects is to develop the national strategies at three levels: short term, medium term and long-term. The short-term strategy should cater for immediate measures to stop further upturn in environmental degradation and climate change or to minimize its impact.
Through medium term strategy, all stakeholders should be taken on board for attainment of two objectives; a gradual stoppage of manmade and artificial causes to climate change and preservation of the vulnerable regions through nation-wide remedial measures.
The long-term strategy should aim at introducing a constitutional package for the formulation of national policies on all issues for national preservation and constitutional safeguards against any attempt to cause environmental degradation and causing a climate change.
Besides, the federal and provincial governments should develop a consensus to formulate long-term security and developments policies on emerging issues like; massive urbanization, demographic changes through displacements, agricultural development with minimum resources, resource allocation and reducing rivalries and conflicts having their origin in provincialism ethnicity.
In all eventualities the risks caused by climate change and compounded by socio-political and socio-economic factors are seriously imperilling the national security of Pakistan which needs serious attention sooner than later.
In fact, Pakistan has already reached to an extreme level of vulnerabilities from the perspective of climate change.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
