IN recent years, India has started feeling big and has become quite assertive after getting the US/western powers’ lavish economic/military and diplomatic support as part of the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy of containing China. Now, the US-India relations are bound by some important agreements signed, like the civil nuclear deal, an agreement of strategic partnership, support for the UNSC veto membership, MoU on cyber-security cooperation, elevation of India to a major defence partner status and an agreement on Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA).
Both have also signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) to share sensitive geospatial data to boost the accuracy of Indian drones and cruise missiles and agreements on the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (ICET), to fast-track joint production in air combat and land mobility systems; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, munition, the undersea domain, cooperation in space, artificial intelligence and the cutting-edge technology.
As an ally of the US, India has become more offensive in using state terrorism to crush freedom struggles in the IIOJ&K, Indian Punjab and Manipur State and its Muslim and Christian minorities, thinking that the US/EU will not object to its illegal actions/HR violations. BJP/Modi Government has already divided the IIOJ&K into two union territories to absorb the State into India, in total violation of the UNSC resolutions. Also, the Indian Army Chief has threatened to capture AJ&K, if ordered. India is also sponsoring terrorism against Pakistan more boldly.
Moreover, the Indian Government has displayed an increasing level of confidence to the extent that it has also started using state terrorism to advance its domestic/foreign policy objectives in the western countries to eliminate/kill some of its expatriate citizens residing there. For example, as per media reports, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada stated in his address to Canada’s Parliament that “agents of the Government of India” had carried out the assassination of a Sikh community leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia in June 2023. He said, “Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty”.
Moments later, the Canadian Minister for Foreign Affairs Office announced it was expelling Indian diplomat Pavan Kumar Rai, identified by them as the head of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India’s foreign intelligence agency, in Canada. The aforementioned allegation was made by the Canadian PM, after sharing the evidence with the Indian PM, Mr. Modi, seeking India’s cooperation in further investigation. On the event, Canada’s western allies have responded as follows.
According to CNN, the US Ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, said in an interview, “I am confirming that there was shared intelligence among Five Eyes partners that helped lead Canada to making the statements that the prime minister made”. According to the BBC News, dated 19 September 2023, the White House said the US was “deeply concerned” about the allegations of the murder, saying it was “critical that Canada’s investigation proceed and the perpetrators be brought to justice”.
The UK Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, told the BBC, he had spoken to Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly about the allegations and the UK took “very seriously the things that Canada is saying”. A spokesperson for Australia’s Foreign Ministry said, “Canberra was ‘deeply concerned’ by the allegations, and had conveyed her concerns at senior levels in India.”
Instead of cooperating with Canada for further investigation, as per media reports, India released a strongly-worded statement, calling Trudeau’s statement as “absurd and motivated”. India has also expelled a senior Canadian diplomat in retaliation and has ordered the expulsion of an additional 41 Canadian diplomats.
India has done such a harmful act of getting the Sikh leader killed in Canada, that the US/its western allies’ varied response to the incident relating to their NATO ally Canada and Indo-Pacific ally India, might create differences among them. In fact, due to this incident, there are already signs of fissures among them, because so far they are hesitant to make a joint statement, as demanded by Canada.
Moreover, as per the BBC, if firm proof was established, western powers would have to make a choice between backing Ottawa or New Delhi, a choice between supporting the principle of the rule of law or the hard necessity of realpolitik. In future as well, even for the UK and Australia, that have large Sikh communities, there is always the potential for a diplomatic row like this.
India is displaying this rude behaviour probably because, after becoming a part of the USA’s Indo-Pacific strategy, it thought that it could now blackmail all the western powers. Hence, India has become too overconfident, rather an arrogant upcoming major power, which has started showing eyes even to the Five Eyes.
As India has already defied to vote in favour of the resolutions brought up by the US/its allies against Russia on Ukraine crisis at the UNGA/UNSC forums, when the time comes, it will also not act as a bulwark to contain China, as both are members of SCO and BRICS, and India has long disputed border and heavy trade volume with China. In fact, India is getting the western support only to become a major power and to enable it to negotiate its border dispute with China, on a parity basis.
In view of the above discussion, it can be concluded that after becoming a major power, India will become an arrogant and uncontrollable country, even while dealing with the US/western countries, and hence will become a source of creating fissures among them, as is happening over the murder of the Sikh community leader in Canada. Therefore, the US/western powers need to be careful in further empowering/arming India.
In the above context, the US/western powers should also start providing economic and conventional military support to Pakistan to ensure a sort of balance of power in the region to avoid a nuclear confrontation, to avoid India’s total hegemony and discourage it from using/supporting terrorism. Moreover, a strong Pakistan will directly serve the US/western powers’ interest by keeping Afghanistan engaged and providing land access to Central Asia.
—The writer is also a former Research Fellow of IPRI and Senior Research Fellow of SVI Islamabad.
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