US failure in Afghanistan and consequences for Pakistan
AMERICA’S longest war has ended after twenty years of blood and sweat, thousands of American lives, billions of dollars spent and the final result was a total collapse of Afghanistan.
Shame humiliation and utter defeat at the hands of a rag tag group of poorly armed Afghan militants called Taliban.
Causes and reasons for the defeat of the world’s biggest super power will continue to be discussed and debated for a long time but the fact is that the United States has nobody to blame but itself for this catastrophic disaster and the subsequent consequences for Pakistan and the region.
Many politicians and analysts in Pakistan have expressed joy and great jubilation at the unexpected but spectacular victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Pakistani religious parties and many hard liners have always lent support to the extremist religious factions in the country and abroad especially the Afghan Taliban.
Taliban supporters in Pakistan have now achieved what they hoped and wished for but by and large the people of Pakistan will regret this Taliban victory in the times to come.
There are no two opinions about the fact that this Taliban victory will leave Pakistan extremely vulnerable domestically and may result in complete isolation in the world community of civilized nations especially the western democracies.
The end of the American adventure in Afghanistan will also be a turning point in US-Pakistan relationship. It will be a delicate balancing act between the wishes of the US and Pakistan’s own national interests.
The Taliban may not listen to Pakistan after their establishment of the Islamic Emirate and pride in their moment of triumph and this could very well find Pakistan caught between an uncontrollable Taliban and the demands of the international community to make them behave in a more humane and democratic way.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister has already declared that the Taliban have “Broken the Shackles of Slavery” and the Foreign Minister has announced a general amnesty for the Pakistani Taliban that has been rather rudely and arrogantly rejected by the TTP.
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will have a disastrous effect on our domestic peace and security.
Pakistani society is already divided on sectarian lines and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan will embolden and encourage Islamic radicals in the country.
Pakistani Taliban and other religious extremists may again start attacking targets in Pakistan.
Civil war in Afghanistan will certainly damage the already weakened economy and Pakistan may have to deal with a flood of refugees.
The present Pakistani leadership view the Taliban as an important partner in our competition with the arch enemy India and the Taliban government in Afghanistan as strategic depth and strategic assets for Pakistan.
Pakistan is playing a very risky and dangerous game by supporting the Taliban and trying to stay in the good graces of the world community at the same time.
Pakistani security experts have always expressed the desire and need to have a pro-Pakistan government.
In Afghanistan because of the perception that India will make Afghanistan a launching pad for their nefarious activities to break up Pakistan and this fear is based on the fact that Afghanistan has always laid claim to parts of KP and Baluchistan and it did not accept the British-drawn Durand Line until today.
The Taliban victory in Afghanistan will certainly impede the efforts of the Pakistan government to control religious extremism and bigotry in the country.
In view of the well-known Taliban hardline and obscurantist ideology it would be unrealistic to expect them to respect human rights or the rights of women.
Pakistan has facilitated the deal between the Taliban and the Americans but it now appears that it will be blamed for the Taliban refusal to behave in accordance with the demands and wishes of the civilized world community.
The present hope of the Pakistani establishment is that a regional coalition of Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran, that is if the Taliban keep their promise to respect Shia rights in Afghanistan, will support the Taliban and expect them to fight other terrorist and extremist groups like the ISIS or DAESH and to ensure that the Taliban themselves do not back or shelter international religious extremism including the efforts of the TTP to instigate a Islamist revolt in Pakistan for the imposition of the Shariah laws.
So far there has been no indication that the Taliban have made any effort to rope in the hard core elements of the TTP, most of them are under the protection of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Pakistan has already seen a spike in the TTP activities in the country and some audacious attacks on the security agencies in the Tribal Areas.
The answer to Pakistan’s worries, perhaps, lies in the reply of a Taliban Commander Muhammad Mustafa on 15th August 2021, the day of the fall of Kabul “One day the Mujahideen will have victory and Islamic law will come not just to Afghanistan, but all over the world. We are not in a hurry. We believe it will come one day. Jihad will not end until that day.”
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
