THE 2024 US Elections is considered to be one of the closest and most dramatic electoral cycles in the nation’s history with Trump and Harris being neck to neck in crucial battleground states including Pennsylvania, Michigan and several on the Sun Belt were seen to be hotly contested. Ultimately, Trump emerged victorious, securing around 295 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 required to win the presidency. Though this portrays a significant national divide, nevertheless, this election could be termed as the most consequential in terms of US Foreign Policy and Global Market. Hence referring to it as the inception of a new world order would be most fitting.
The elections came at a critical juncture given that the global setup raises questions at Washington’s decision making, role and diplomacy against the Israeli onslaught on Gaza and Lebanon which could possibly entangle Iran into the conflict and thus leading towards a widespread regional conflict. Moreover, Russia’s conflict with Ukraine could get a further boost considering the reports of North Korean troops being pledged and sent to aid the Russians, tensions with China in South China Sea, sanctions, EVs and the continuing Sudanese civil war marks this election as an important event in the great scheme of affairs.
As Trump has emerged as a clear victor his highly nationalist policy of ‘America First’ or “Americanism, not globalism” raises serious concerns among American allies. This has been, previously, lambasted by international allies evident by the fact that the recent turmoil going into the elections resulted in NATO countries calling Washington “an unpredictable ally” and reiterated that the Alliance’s future plans must be safeguarded against any potential disruptions from the Trump Administration or should be “Trump Proofed”. However, it should be noted that this anti-Trump approach of the NATO countries is attributed to hardball tactics employed by the current president to force NATO nations to meet their military spending targets two percent of their GDP and due to the fact that Trump has time and time again questioned the very existence and need of NATO as an organization.
Though, many of the European countries and diplomats have shown dissatisfaction from the poor foreign policy management by the Biden Administration, failing to secure ceasefire between Israel and Hamas or putting an end to the Ukraine conflict, despite this they had already displayed their apprehension against a possible Trump’s victory as it could instill further instability in the global politics. Now as Trump has emerged as the absolute victor it poses serious questions regarding the future of EU-US relations. The EU preferred a Harris presidency as it meant the preservation of the current status quo, continuation of a cordial working relationship between the EU and the US, joint collaboration for achieving a Ukrainian victory and a potential ease in the overall pressure over Europe that Trump in office would bring thus weakening the Atlantic Alliance and further emboldening Putin’s Russia.
While it is true that Trump prioritizing “Americanism” over “Globalism” does frustrate most of the allies but it should be noted that though his policies may be heavily America centric but it is the need of the hour considering high levels of inflation, great recession levels and unaffordable housing that America is hindered with while the Biden Administration kept providing hefty military and financial aid to Israel and Ukraine.
This has made people disenfranchise from the Democrats and aided Trump in his significant victory. Furthermore, his last term in the office was full of geopolitical tensions but no major armed conflict had begun during his run which was highly appreciated by all the lovers of peace and stability across the globe.
The bilateral normalization agreements or the Abraham Accords between Israel, considered an elephant in the room in the Middle East, with United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco regarded as a significant diplomatic breakthrough which he has already pledged to expand. However, the normalization agreement is nothing but a blatant disregard of Palestinian interests and a paid lip service in regard to the Palestinian question, therefore its expansion would not bring any peace in the Middle East. The Middle East doesn’t seem to be moving towards peace anytime soon, as Trump had pledged his allegiance to Israel in the war against peace in the Middle East. He has further stated that his Administration will give Netanyahu a free hand to do what he deems fit which would only add onto the 43000 dead Palestinians. Iran would also be in the line of fire during the presidency of Trump.
Moreover, Trump has promised an end to the war with a swift Israeli victory further evidencing his strong endorsement of the Israeli Policy. This makes it crystal clear that America has lost the moral high ground and there has been irreparable damage to its credibility as the global peace maker. Ukraine’s future also rested upon the US elections. The Kremlin had its bet on Trump to be the winning horse as he expressed his dissatisfaction with the hefty military and financial support to Ukraine and promised to turn off the tap and force the sides to the table should he be re-elected. Kremlin’s ready to negotiate but only if Ukraine withdraws its troops from the front and renounces any possible membership in NATO, thereby rendering the country vulnerable in the future.
In summary, Trump has overcome all electoral hurdles and litigation snags to once again capture the US presidency creating history in its national and political realm. As expected, Trump’s presidency would face tough issues pertaining to existing issues of Iran, Taiwan, South China Sea, Russia & Ukraine and Israel- Palestine. However, keeping his last tenure in mind he would prefer to reduce increasing escalations. Moreover, emerging global fight against climate change, energy & food security, economic protectionism and financial cooperation may also be triggered thus having serious impacts on his presidency.
In Pakistan, PTI supporters are hoping against all hopes to benefit from Trump’s presidency, however, only time will tell. The bilateral relations with China would again not be pleasant, widening further the set of mutual expectations and level of cooperation. Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Philippine, ASEAN, AUKUS, QUAD, Australia, India, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would be again middle corridors of diplomacy, connectivity and economic cooperation in the days to come.
—The writer is the Centre for Pak-China Corridor of Knowledge.
