WHILE travelling last week on a long flight from the USA to the UAE, I had a chance to meet a young beautiful Ukrainian lady and I thought to exchange views with her about the war in her country. I was amazed at the depth of knowledge she possessed and facts and figures and other relevant data she had on her tips about the ongoing war, now running in second year. I owe much of the information you will read in the lines below, to her. It surely was rare a combination of beauty and intelligence, with which this young lady was endowed.
The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted both the country and global markets, particularly the food supply. Ukraine, historically a major grain exporter, fed 400 million people worldwide in 2021. However, for the first five months of the war, Ukraine could not export its grain via the Black Sea, its primary shipping route. This disruption has worsened a global hunger crisis, particularly affecting countries in the Middle East and Africa that were already grappling with hunger due to conflict and climate change. The reliance on Ukrainian grain in these regions exacerbated the situation, making the existing hunger crises even more severe.
East Africa is experiencing one of the worst droughts in recent decades, triggered by six consecutive six below-average rainy seasons, alongside the disruption in food supply caused by the war in Ukraine. Across the region, 22 million people don’t have access to sufficient food and 1.5 million children are at a risk of life-threatening malnutrition. Decades of conflict and climate change have, over time, made the region uniquely vulnerable and dangerously reliant on imported grains—with approximately 80% of East Africa’s imported from Russia and Ukraine.
In the Middle East, the war in Ukraine has sent prices of wheat and fuel spiralling. Syrian refugees are among the hardest hit, as many do not have the incomes to cover the dramatically increased cost of living. Recently, the country has also been devastated by a powerful earthquake of 7.8 scale. In Central America, prices for staple foods like white maize are well above the five-year average. Together with climate change and ongoing insecurity, nearly 13 million people across the region face growing hunger, with Russia withdrawing from the agreement. If a full blockade is reinstated, 80 percent of grain imported from the region to the African continent could be halted, which risks holding global food security at ransom.
Back in July, the UN-brokered grain deal paved the way for Ukraine to resume its exports—a crucial step in providing relief to a growing global hunger crisis. However, the grain deal expired on July 7, with Russia withdrawing from the agreement. If a full blockade is reinstated, 80 percent of grain imported from the region to the African continent could be halted, which risks holding global food security at ransom. It was clear from the start that Putin’s war in Ukraine would cause Global Economic disorder. Its economic impacts may be insignificant next to the suffering and loss of life on the battlefields. But they do present critical challenges that leaders must resolve to limit yet more suffering through poverty, food shortages and the cost of living crisis.
For the people of Ukraine, incomes have plummeted. Poverty in the country soared from 5.5% of the population to 24.2% in 2022, according to the World Bank. The war has thus pushed 7.1 million more people into poverty, undoing 15 years of progress. Further, Ukraine is now one of the most food-insecure countries in the world, despite being one of the world’s biggest exporters of crops, such as maize, barley and wheat, before the war. The UN World Food Programme estimates that one in three Ukrainian households is food-insecure, rising to one in two in some areas of the east and south.
Ukraine’s rising deprivation is, in part, due to job losses following Russia’s destruction of infrastructure such as ports and manufacturing plants. It is also a result of a slow-down, or cessation, of economic activity including agriculture. Deaths among household earners also add to the deprivation. In August 2023, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 26,717 civilian casualties in the country: 9,511 killed and 17,206 injured since the conflict started.
The war has forced has forced about six million Ukrainians to flee Ukraine representing around 15% of Ukraine’s pre-war population, they leave a large hole in its national workforce. Even after the war is over, this exodus is likely to cause a serious shortage of workers. But forced migration can offer an economic lifeline to many affected by war. It not only provides essential shelter and safety, but also gives children the chance to resume education and invest in a brighter future. The same may be true for adults from Ukraine, who will probably want to learn the language of their new home country and train in new skills to make the most of their new environment.
Ukraine’s economic outlook is uncertain and depends on how long the war lasts. But recovery is possible. What’s more, Ukraine has already proved its resilience. In March 2022, 79% of businesses in the country were idle or on the brink of shutdown. By the end of the year, this figure had fallen to just 32% – which is remarkable given the scale of the destruction. Similarly, Ukraine has avoided bureaucratic failure with most public services remaining accessible. This is largely due to a high level of digitalisation since the Covid-19 pandemic. But successful recovery will take unprecedented efforts and creativity from government. Going forward, Ukraine’s leaders must strive to achieve all of the structural changes that other European countries have been going through for years, but in much less time. These include implementing low-carbon production, improving the energy intensity of the economy and using advances in information technologies and fine tech to improve government services.
—The writer is Former Civil Servant and Consultant (ILO) & International Organisation for Migration.
