Abdul Shakoor Shah
THE end of cold war pushed smaller South Asian Nations back from the US radar. The US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement proved that the US is not trying to figure out the South Asian Nations as a scrappy region with contradictory interests, but the US is engraving a new model for South Asia under India supremacy. The sole purpose of the US-Indian ties is to control Chinese influence in the region which will result in fiasco. The US-Indian recent agreement regarding information exchange has created anxiety in the region. The agreement will imbalance power in South Asia which is neither in the interests of the US nor India. The US inclination towards India has created a geopolitical and socio-economical gulf in the region. The US is overlooking the two major South Asian factors by inclining toward India. Firstly, the Indian neighbors have never been on good terms with it.
Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka, including Bhutan, never entirely acknowledge Indian supremacy and most likely never will due to historical, economic and political reasons. Secondly, India is utterly unable to convince or compel these countries to live under Indian umbrella due to geopolitical, socio-economical and military limitations. These two factors are favoring Chinese which may generate a tricky situation for the US. The US tactic of underpinning these states through Indo-Pacific strategy is very exigent. The US stance on Chinese investment in the region for China’s sake is not reasonable. Indian neighbors are prone to China rather than the US. They might have learnt from the US-Pakistan long fractional relations. One of main purposes of Indian planning for the 1971 war against Pakistan was to split the country into two parts for hankering after its ambition for its South Asian supremacy. India made Bangladesh for the fulfillment of her desire which proved a nightmare later on. On realization of failure, the relationship with Bangladesh took a topsy-turvy turn. Indian establishment cynically aspired to move on by tempering the geopolitical and socio-economical conditions of the neighbors.
The Hindu psychology of bullying the smaller ones mixed up with the rest of the factors compelled the south Asian states to move to China on Indian expense. Instead of social, economical, geographical and regional webs, India has cut a sorry figure both in terms of progress and relations with its neighbor. India has fallen to the bottom due to its imperialistic policies toward both the groups namely the BBIN (Bhutan-Bangladesh-India Nepal) or the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative of Multi-sectoral and Economic Cooperation). In the traditional regional Bloc SAARC, an initiative taken by smaller nations, India hindered it. Significantly, India’s archrival Pakistan being a member of SAARC, the forum remained dysfunctional. While comparing China with the rest of the South Asian states, it is gluing any nation, small or large, into China-led organizations. It is a crystal clear indication that China-lead sub-regional block is pleasing for smaller neighbors of India. India is trying its utmost to forestall the setting by engaging with China under the US umbrella which is going to end in smoke sooner or later. The US and India both are coming closer with the sole aim of stopping China. But the US seems unaware of the reality that the Indian neighbours are disinclined to their plans.
Modi’s Hinduism has pushed the neighbors further away from the margin of any support. The door is wide open for China, Pakistan, Iran and the rest of the South Asian states to step forward and make a new block in South Asia. India is incapable to avert such block. Communist blocks in South Asia are daring enough by Chinese propinquity. India is welcoming the US in the region to reshape regional supremacy after the USSR. It is the fact that no state either big or small can ever tap its feet with the Hindu mindset for the long run. The Indian dreams of international relations with powerful countries to reassert its imperialistic domination will add fuel to the fire for its neighbor. They will be left with no alternative than allying China. It is need of the hour to formulate a new plurilateral model for South Asia through regional structural change. The model must include all states’ mutual interests by involving regional and extra-regional powers. It is the utmost requirement of the times to build sub-regional muscles through negotiation and cooperation among the large and small South Asian States. China can easily assemble NBSM (Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives) because they neither share Kashmir Issue nor have nuclear bombs. This block comprises 215 million populations spreading from Himalayas to the Indian Ocean via the Bay of Bengal.
NBSM is linked with China either through optical fiber or Chinese satellite systems. Their telecommunication system is chiefly based on Chinese technology. NBSM is going to be a beneficiary of China’s 5G technology sooner or later. It is transformational in the sense that India’s geographical ascendancy will not be the sole principal factor shaping the region. The Modi’s Hindu State internally and externally is posing a serious threat to regional stability and peace contrary to its potential role in South Asia. The Indian military high ups have left no stone unturned in pushing the nation to war zone. The Hindu fanatics have shrunk the communities to four walls which is cutting India knee deep internally. The US must reshape its Indo-Pacific strategy by involving the main regional blocks to ensure the protection of its interests in the region. The US strategy for intra-regional cooperation and inter-regional activity will be helpful. The US and India must join hands in solving the long standing Kashmir issue and by strengthening neighbors, it will not only solve Indian security concerns but can also hinder Chinese involvement in the region.
—The writer is a contributing columnist, based in Lahore.
