RELIGION, land, language, race, oil, and an oppression of memories–convolved in centuries and turned into a multivariable calculus–the Middle East. It is complex, volatile and unpredictable. Hitting a progressive balance between these variables has been the most intricate diplomatic challenge for the last one hundred years. On Sept 15, 2021, the USA brokered three treaties envisaging intercultural dialogue between Abrahamic religions, inter-state peace, normalization and constructive diplomatic relations between Israel, Bahrain and the UAE. These agreements led to substantive negotiations on bilateral issues in addition to direct flights, tourism, corporate and academic engagements. Moreover, the groundbreaking, China-led, KSA-Iran truce and resumption of diplomatic relations in 2023 unveiled the long-awaited dawn of regional detoxification and de-securitization. The agreement was expected to have positive impacts on the geopolitics of Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Pakistan as well. Unfortunately, the scary outbreak of the Gaza-Israel conflict on October 7 has again clouded the wave of diplomatic normalization with divisive narratives based on ethical relativism and selective outrage all over the world. Why has the Middle East remained the most active strategic chessboard for centuries? Three important reasons—geographical: 1) it bridges world continents, oceans, cultures and trade routes; 2) ideological: the Middle East hosts Jerusalem that resonates with the hearts of 2 38 Billion Christian, 1.91 Billion Muslims and 15.3 million Jews; 3) It is Earth’s oil station having 67% of the OPEC total reserves that are 80.4% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
During the 16th and 17th centuries, the Ottoman Empire was extended from Hungary to Yemen with a sundry display of religions, cultures and languages. The Ottoman Middle East was an impediment for the emerging British traders to capitalize the lucrative markets located around the coastline of the Indian Ocean. Until the advent of the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire had lost its administrative muscle when the British set the hegemon’s interests in the Middle East. The British increased its sphere of influence first by signing the General Maritime Treaty with the UAE in 1820, followed by capturing the port of Aden in South Yemen in 1839, then signing a Protectorate Treaty with Bahrain in 1861, and eventually capturing Egypt in 1882. The British practically took over the control of this whole area including the Suez Canal opening its access to the Asian markets. British infiltration threatened the internally crumbling Ottomans—one of the major reasons why the Ottoman Empire participated in World War-1 in favour of Germany. To rally the Jewish support from the USA against Central Powers, to place a pro-British settlement around Suez Canal to safeguard the future British access to India, on November 2, 1917, British declared support for the establishment of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine where Palestinian Arab natives made up more than 90pc of the population —The Balfour Declaration. Later, The League of Nations decided to place Palestine under the administration of Great Britain as the Mandatory Power under the Mandates System adopted by the League.
The World War ended with the defeat of Central Powers–Germany, Ottomans and Austria-Hungary. The Treaty of Versailles was signed in 1919 to impose peace terms and penalties on Germans followed by the Treaty of Sevres next year imposing peace terms on Ottomans. The later retrograde was even harsher as it implemented the abstract of the secret Sykes-Picot understanding of 1915. The nationalist Kamal Ata Turk retaliated and fought a war with allies. In 1923 the Allied Forces signed The Treaty of Lausanne with Ata Turk and modern Turkey was formed. These secret deals, declarations and treaties together crafted the modern Middle East States out of the Ottoman carcass by slicing the victory cake between the French, Russian and English spheres of influence. Many ground realities were ignored. The unique centuries old ethnic identity of Kurd was distributed into Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkiye. The whole area still faces a social division due to the Kurd identity movement. Mosel, Basra and Baghdad with contrasting demographics were merged together as Iraq. Mosel had a Kurdish majority, Baghdad had Sunni Arabs, whereas Basra was inhabited by Shia Arabs. The separation of Kuwait from Iraq seeded Kuwait-Iraq war later fought in 1990. Lebanon was declared a separate state under French control. Lebanon at that time had 80 percent Christians and 20 percent Muslims. The Christian Maronites demanded an expanded autonomous state. The colonials expanded Lebanon to the coastal strip that included Tyre, Sidon and Beirut. But the expansion also reshaped the population make-up which caused communal frictions between Christians and Muslims. Damascus, Aleppo and Deir Ezzor with religious and ethnic fault lines of Sunni, Shia, Kurd, Turk and Syrian were forcefully combined and made Syria. The hasty demarcation of Syria is among the important undercurrents that led to the bloody Syrian conflict started in 2011 and lasted 12 years. The ethnic unrest in the Antakya region stressed Turkey-Syria relations. Moreover, the main water supply of Syria and Iraq comes from Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The origins of both rivers were demarcated in the Armenian Highland of northeastern Turkiye. Turkiye built dams on these rivers for irrigation and hydroelectricity. These water installations are strongly disputed by the downstream riparian states of Iraq and Syria to protect their wetland ecosystems of waterways, rivers, marshes, reedbeds and islands. Tigris-Euphrates river system is a source of life for eastern Anatolia, Syria and Iraq, before finally dropping into the Arabian Gulf. The colonial carve-up was inorganic and unsustainable—contradictory to the cultural, ethnic and ideological aspirations of the local populations. France got Lebanon and Syria, while Palestine, Jordan and the two southern provinces of Iraq – Baghdad and al-Basra went to Britain. The post-World War-1 uncivil and unscientific handling of the Middle East has been haunting the strategic and social tranquility of this region for decades–mainly due to five reasons:
1) On the top of everything, Palestine-Israel conflict that has consumed tens of thousands of human lives and millions were displaced.
2) A procrastinated mistrust in general public against the West.
3) The geographical disputes that have been standing at the core of violent conflicts for more than 100 years.
4) Mistrust against the West together with a sense of deprivation improvised an ecosystem of fear ideal to nurture the retrogressive non-state movements advocating pan-Islamism in the age of steam engines, print and telegraphy. These movements idealized a revised social construct based on supranational Muslim identity that emerged in multiple interrelated processes of colonial and cultural subjugation by European powers and the resistance against them. Muslim Brotherhood, Hizb-ut-Tahrir and their derivatives like Hamas are classic examples.
5) Nasserism in Egypt and Baathism in Iraq and Syria—based on a single nationalism covering the entire Arab world. For three years, Egypt and Syria, despite being on different continents, actually tried it, by merging into the United Arab Republic; the experiment disintegrated after a 1961 coup in Damascus. Even the Islamic State seeks to undo the old borders. After sweeping across Syria and Iraq in 2014, Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced, “This blessed advance will not stop until we hit the last nail in the coffin of the Sykes-Picot conspiracy.
6) Launched a century of oil proxy wars.
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—The author is a regular columnist and researcher. He teaches public policy at National Defence University Islamabad.
