Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) represents a huge, contiguous landmass stretching from the Volga River to the Indo-Gangetic Plain, enveloping 80 percent of Eurasia and home to 40 percent of the world population. Unlike other Eurasia-centered organizations like BRICS, SCO forms a single geographical entity, displaying huge market capitalization, neighboring cultures, industrial growth and human and natural resources. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) corridors in South and Central Asia have accelerated SCO’s economic integration.
However, security and terrorism dominate the agenda due to the region’s complex geo-strategic landscape, shaped by shared borders, Cold War legacies, NATO’s Afghan intervention, extremist non-state actors, rivalries between China, India and Pakistan, water security concerns and the fragile ecosystems of the Himalayas, Pamirs, Hindu Kush and Karakoram regions.
China and Russia have played pivotal roles in shaping SCO’s security agenda, building on the foundation laid by the Shanghai Five mechanism – initially comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The inclusion of India, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus has expanded the SCO’s influence area to South Asia, the Middle East, and Belarusian Ridge–the eastern border of the European Union. The integration of diverse perspectives, multi-layered conceptions of national security, and redefining terrorism and extremism according to each member state’s national interests have introduced significant challenges and complicated SCO’s strategic dialogue. The operational complexity in broadening dimensions and paradigms for counter-terrorism cooperation poses substantial tests for SCO, as converging disparate views into a unified cooperative agenda demands highly robust, adaptable institutions capable of navigating intricate security dynamics.
While realizing the importance and complexity of this geostrategic outlook, the SCO has devised various mechanisms of security cooperation. Key initiatives include the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), established in 2001, and the SCO’s Counter-Terrorism Convention (2009) and Agreement on Cooperation in Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism (2001). Regular joint military exercises, such as “Peace Mission” and “Border Control,” enhance interoperability and trust. The SCO’s Border Security Agreement (2015) strengthens cooperation on border management. Additionally, the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group promotes regional stability and cooperation on counter-terrorism efforts.
The SC0’s economic potentiality, as outlined in its Economic Development Strategy until 2030, is directly linked with its security deliverables. This strategy aims to foster economic cooperation, trade and investment among member states through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the smooth execution of this plan hinges on addressing pressing security concerns. China, the primary economic driver, is wary of Islamic militancy spreading to its Xinjiang province, where Uyghur separatists have historical ties with regional extremist groups. China is also concerned about the safety of its citizens and BRI investments in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Afghanistan, Islamic State (IS) threats loom large, while in Pakistan, Baluch separatists and Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) pose risks. TTP is an offshoot of the Afghan Taliban operating in Pakistan. Pakistan accuses India and Afghanistan for supporting BLA and TTP respectively. India, in turn, blames Pakistan for fueling Kashmir separatist movements and Sikh uprisings in eastern Punjab. Moreover, The Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), established in 2015, has expanded its reach, attacking Russian interests, including the 2022 concert hall bombing that killed 137 civilians. ISIS-K’s presence in Afghanistan has heightened concerns for Russia, already grappling with Muslim unrest in the North Caucasus Mountains. The Taliban’s swift takeover of Kabul has emboldened militant groups operating in Central Asia and Pakistan, providing hideouts and logistical support. Afghanistan’s instability has transformed it into a hub for militant organizations, with the Taliban struggling to control groups pursuing similar ideologies. These groups have coordinated networks and receive support from local populations and target neighboring countries, including Pakistan, Russia and China. Central Asian nations, including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, also face security concerns from militant groups like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) and Hizb ut-Tahrir.
Apart from non-state militant actors, state-level tensions and geographical disputes add another layer in the SCO’s strategic landscape. India-China border disputes and competition for regional influence, along with India-Pakistan tensions over Kashmir, contribute to regional instability. Central Asian states, formerly part of the Soviet Union, have demonstrated diplomatic vigilance in recent years, resolving internal border disputes and fostering a conducive environment for business growth, infrastructure development and regional cooperation. Nevertheless, after Ukraine-Russia war on their western frontier and China-Taiwan escalation on their East, these states navigate a delicate balance in maintaining a certain level of neutrality to safeguard their national interests amidst the intensified rivalry between Russia-China and the West. Their historical ties with Russia, China’s growing influence, their proximity to Afghanistan and Iran, and their security and economic partnerships with Europe sensitize their geopolitical maneuvers. Moreover, vague border demarcations within, although diminished, still simmer, particularly in the Fergana Valley and Pamir Mountains, where ethnic tensions linger, and Amu Darya Basin water reserve issue and Caspian Sea oil and gas disputes add to regional complexities. Melting glaciers in the Pamir and Tian Shan mountains threaten water supplies, and climate change impacts agricultural productivity and food security for the growing population. Addressing these interconnected issues – border disputes, water management, ethnic tensions, resource competition, climate change and great power rivalry – is vital for Central Asia’s sustainable development and SCO economic cooperation.
The prosperity in the SCO region is the catalyst for Asia’s economic prosperity, crucial for achieving the Eurasian vision championed by China and Russia. The SCO collectively represents approximately one-fourth of global GDP. However, unlocking this potential depends on member states’ willingness to develop harmonized policy frameworks for regional peace and stability. To achieve this, SCO member states require advanced platforms for synchronized interstate engagement, facilitating conceptual, cultural and diplomatic dialogue – encompassing formal, informal and cultural diplomacy channels – and seamless information and intelligence sharing for military operations, alongside strategic alignment and operational synergy between stakeholders on all levels.
—The Author is a columnist and member of UNFCCC global team. He taught Public Policy in the National Defence University of Pakistan)
