REPORTS have started appearing mostly in Urdu newspapers indicating that our government has decided to reinitiate negotiations with the terrorist outfit TTP. According to these reports, the negotiations will be part of the national dialogue aimed at eliminating terrorism and extremism under Operation Azm-i-Istehkam. Approximately 30% of the efforts will involve military or kinetic actions, while 70% will focus on dialogue and other measures. For the past two years, state institutions have consistently conveyed that they could not consider negotiating with the TTP or Baloch insurgents. I sincerely hope that the state has not reviewed its policy of not talking to terrorists of all hue.
It has now been proved beyond doubt that the TTP is a proxy of the Afghan Taliban. To verify this fact, one has to only go through the 15th UN monitoring team report on ISIL (Daesh) Al-Qaeda/Taliban. Estimating its strength at 6000 – 6500 fighters, the report claims that TTP is the largest militant/terrorist group in Afghanistan that enjoys the freedom to operate under the full view of the Afghan Taliban regime. The report notes that TTP continues to operate at its maximum level to conduct military operations against Pakistan, at times using Afghan manpower. The TTP has intensified its attacks against Pakistan, increasing from 573 in 2021 to 715 in 2022 and 1,210 in 2023, the trend continuing into 2024.
The report validates many of the claims made by Pakistani authorities, including the Bisham bombing that resulted in the death of five Chinese engineers. This incident is specifically mentioned in the report. It also confirms Pakistan’s concerns that NATO-calibre weapons, particularly night vision capabilities, have been provided to the TTP by the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban acquired these high-tech weapons after NATO forces withdrew from Afghanistan.
The report further questions the Afghan Taliban’s willingness to address the TTP threat to Pakistan. Due to their religious and ideological affinity, the Afghan Taliban are not only turning a blind eye to the TTP’s operations against Pakistan but are also providing them with NATO-grade weapons, manpower and training facilities. Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) assists the TTP in conducting terrorist attacks within Pakistan. Al-Qaeda cells in several Afghan provinces also train TTP fighters along with local cadres. This training has enabled the TTP to carry out high-profile attacks against targets in Pakistan.
Another important but worrisome fact pointed out in the report is about the presence of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in Afghanistan. Despite Taliban’s claim of success against ISK, about 4000 – 6000 fighters of the group are said to be present in Afghanistan. The fighters are threatening not only Pakistan but the whole region up to Russia. The report concludes that the Afghan Taliban’s counter terrorism capabilities are deficient to meet the nature of the threat.
In spite of the ground realities corroborated in detail by the UN report, if Pakistan initiates a dialogue with the TTP, it would be a significant blow to the country. As it is clear beyond any doubt that the TTP is a proxy of the Afghan Taliban, any negotiation with it will give legitimacy to a terrorist organization. The TTP would look at this as a major success and as a sign of Pakistan’s weakness. The TTP will not disarm or surrender. The dialogue would certainly be a gain for the terrorists.
After the Afghan Taliban took control of the government in Afghanistan, the confidence level of the TTP also skyrocketed. Their aim is now to establish a government in Pakistan similar to that of Afghanistan, led by the TTP and based on Shariah law. The TTP plans to start by setting up their government in the recently merged tribal regions. Consequently, one of their persistent demands is to annul the merger of these regions with KP. The people of the ex-tribal regions are overwhelmingly opposed to any TTP rule and are, in fact, against the government’s talks with the TTP. Their massive public protests have pressured institutions to halt dialogue with the TTP.
This is despite the fact that the common people in the tribal areas are dissatisfied with the federal government, as promises to integrate these areas have not been fulfilled. Talks with TTP, would also mean that our government is again getting ensnared in the trap laid by the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban want their ideological brothers in arms to succeed in Pakistan. If talks are held with TTP, it will also demonstrate that Pakistan’s threat perception is not accurate, and that in its naïveté it is holding talks with an enemy that has brought it whole sole destruction. If Pakistan has to negotiate with anybody, it should be the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Pakistan must once again initiate a comprehensive dialogue with the Taliban regime so that it can help neutralize the TTP. If there is a sincere effort to relocate TTP members and their families from the bordering areas deep inside Afghanistan, Pakistan should help with such a UN initiative. Pakistan should provide further support to disarm and mainstream TTP fighters in Afghan society.
If the Taliban refuse to respond positively, Pakistan must address the terrorist threat with full force while maintaining transparency. Neighbouring and regional countries affected by militant groups in Afghanistan should join this fight. Meanwhile, a meaningful dialogue should be initiated with the people of merged districts and Balochistan. Respect and emergency development projects should be introduced in partnership with local communities. Genuine development projects benefiting the common man will help diminish the appeal of Baloch separatists. As this column is being sent, news arrives that a terrorist attack on Bannu Cantonment was repulsed by our armed forces, with ten troops martyred. The attackers were reportedly from the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group based in Afghanistan.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP.
