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Russia-Ukraine war’s impact on global food

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WAR and fertile land rarely coexist, yet war-torn Ukraine holds the key to feeding millions worldwide. As a major producer of wheat, corn and barley, Ukraine’s rich soil has earned it the nickname “Europe’s breadbasket.” However, Russia’s invasion has thrown the global food system into chaos, raising fears of food weaponization and a potential hunger crisis. Before the war, Ukraine supplied a staggering 20pc of the world’s traded crops, helping stabilize global food prices. In particular, prior to Russian invasion, Ukraine supplied around 10pc of global wheat exports, 14pc of corn exports, and nearly half of the world’s sunflower oil exports.

According to the United Nations figures, the lives of about 400 million people around the world depend on Ukrainian food exports and over 40 countries, including many in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, rely heavily on Ukrainian wheat to meet their food needs. From 2016 to 2021, they received 92pc of Ukrainian wheat. Countries like Egypt and Lebanon are particularly vulnerable due to their high dependency on grain imports from Ukraine.

During 2022, Ukraine’s grain and crop exports dropped drastically due to the war. Blockade of Black Sea ports, attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure and grain storage facilities, blocking the transportation routes by Russia were major factors strangling exports in 2022 and later. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported a 20pc increase in the global food price index following the disruption of Ukrainian grain exports. China and Pakistan, major importers of Ukrainian crops, have also been significantly impacted by the disruption in grain exports.

A glimmer of hope emerged in July 2022 with a landmark grain deal brokered by the UN and Türkiye. This agreement ensured safe passage for Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea for almost a year. Despite the limited effectiveness of the grain deal, Ukraine demonstrated remarkable determination. Through innovative solutions, it resumed exports via land corridors also known as the EU Solidarity Lanes and alternative sea routes outside Russian control. This has provided much-needed relief, with global food prices stabilizing gradually. However, the future remains precarious. If Russia regains control over Ukrainian resources, food could once again become a political weapon. The World Bank has warned that soaring food prices could push millions into extreme poverty, to destabilize economies, particularly in import-reliant countries. The poorest and the most vulnerable would suffer the most, facing hunger and malnutrition.

Despite the grain deal and the risk of exacerbating the global food crisis, Russia continues to impede Ukrainian exports, jeopardizing the fragile progress. In a bold move, Ukraine launched a series of military strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, destroying a significant number of warships. This action has demonstrably improved the safety of cargo vessels carrying Ukrainian foodstuff, contributing to the increase in grain exports. Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s food security goes far beyond obstructing exports. Disturbing reports allege large-scale grain theft from Ukrainian territories under Russian occupation. These stolen resources are then funnelled into the international market, enriching Russia at the expense of the Ukrainian people and further destabilizing the global food system. The international community must take a strong stance against this blatant theft of Ukrainian wheat and hold Russia accountable.

The upcoming Global Summit on Peace in Ukraine scheduled for June 15-16, 2024 in Switzerland offers a unique opportunity to solidify progress on food security. Food security is one of the ten pillars of the Peace Formula of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It clearly states: “The matter of food security must be de-weaponized. Any actions that negatively impact food production and supply generate global risks.” It calls for safeguarding free and safe navigation in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, prolongation and unimpeded implementation of Black Sea Grain Initiative, as well as Ukraine’s humanitarian initiative “Grain from Ukraine”. The Peace Summit aims at providing a platform for sharing various visions of the peace process as well as to give a political start to the work on joint peace framework. The summit will confirm support for such principles of the peace process, as inadmissibility of the use of nuclear weapons, the importance of the safety of nuclear facilities; the need for free navigation in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to ensure world food security; the settlement of the humanitarian issues – the exchange of prisoners and the return to Ukraine of illegally detained, deported or displaced persons, including children.

Significantly, Switzerland, with the consent of Ukraine, has extended an invitation to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to attend the upcoming Peace Summit. Pakistan’s participation in this pivotal event is of particular importance for several reasons. First of all, Pakistan’s involvement in the Summit can contribute to a more comprehensive and inclusive peace process, fostering dialogue and understanding among the participating nations. Furthermore, Pakistan’s steadfast commitment to peace and its active role in regional security initiatives can significantly bolster the global effort to address the multifaceted challenges posed by the war in Ukraine. By participating in the Summit, Pakistan can help bridge the gap between various regional and global powers, thereby promoting a more unified and coordinated approach to peace building. The summit also provides Pakistan a golden opportunity to showcase its dedication to international peace and security, while advancing its own interests in fostering a stable and peaceful global order.

The adverse consequences of the war are felt globally, thus, there is the urgent need for international cooperation to mitigate these challenges. By actively engaging in the Summit, Pakistan can help shape a more peaceful and secure future for all. The Summit also provides an opportunity for Pakistan to contribute to global efforts on critical issues such as food security without compromising its neutral position on the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The outcome of the Global Peace summit holds immense significance, not just for Ukraine, but for the millions around the globe who depend on a stable and secure food supply to feed their families. So let peace prevail, allowing Ukraine’s breadbasket to nourish the world once again, not fuel a devastating crisis.

—The writer is Ambassador of Ukraine to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

 

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