LAHORE – Near-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures are likely in Pakistan during the first quarter of the year 2024.
The beginning of the first quarter is likely to be drier while its end is expected to be relatively wetter.
The climatic outlook for Pakistan is delineated as follows:
Synoptic Situation:
In the January-February-March (JFM) season of 2024, the continuation of the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected.
Simultaneously, the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is projected to shift to a neutral state within the initial month of the season.
Seasonal Outlook (Rainfall):
As per the seasonal outlook, near-normal rainfall is expected in the upper half of the country i.e., Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan along with upper Punjab and adjoining Kashmir, due to western weather systems.
The end of the season is expected to be relatively wetter than the beginning months.
Seasonal Temperature Outlook:
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide with maximum departure over upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan Northern Punjab and adjoining portions of Kashmir.
Impacts:
- The beginning of the season is expected to be drier, while the end of the season is expected to be relatively wetter.
- Reasonable soil moisture is expected to be available for early growth of upcoming Rabi crops.
- Thick foggy conditions are expected to develop in plain areas of the country. However, the fog intensity will reduce towards the end of the season.
- Irrigation and power sector may plan for judicious use of water.
- During the season, the possibility of hailstorms at different locations may not be ruled out.
- Seasonal illnesses may linger as a result, in case of prolonged dry spell.
