THE governance in Afghanistan has weakened in recent times. On the global strategic front, Mr. Trump’s election victory has caused ripples both domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, China has indicated a firm response to any potential trade sanctions. In Pakistan, additional IMF conditionalities are poised to create economic, strategic and political challenges. Terrorist activities within Pakistan have risen for various reasons, with the recent Quetta blast serving as a stark reminder.
While examining the situation between the two countries, it is important to note the nature of the polarized society of Afghanistan and its impact. Afghanistan comprises various ethnic and religious groups, who are different in the culture, language as well customs (RAWAIAT). It is an historical fact there existed no homogeneous Afghanistan prior to 19th century when Ahmed Shah Abdali clubbed these territories and always warring tribes into a loose confederation. The generic nature of the Afghan people emanates from the Y chromosome which trace back to European ancestry with a mix of Indian traces. This mix has a predominant impact on the psyche of the Afghan people. The governance of Kabul is predominantly a loose confederation. Not today, since times the provinces depend on their tribal loyalties. The tribal leaders exercise their governance with allegiance to Kabul. Ten years of war with the Soviet Union, five years of civil war and then five years of Taliban rule followed by 20 years of war with the United States /NATO not only impacted the infrastructure, social fabric of the country, proliferation of narcotics but also has transformed the psyche of the people of Afghanistan.
Afghan wars also created strategic and economic impact not only in neighbouring courtiers but also regionally and globally. The war in Afghanistan created space for the subversive and terrorist elements not only within Afghanistan but also in neighbouring countries, especially Pakistan’s merged districts (former FATA), the tribal belt of Pakistan. It was a golden opportunity for the terrorist elements to occupy this space. Virtually within years they were able to create state within a state. It resulted in an extremely fragile situation on the borders of Pakistan on one side and penetration within Pakistan. The appeal of religion is such that many young men fall victim to this and become unwanted soldiers of such organizations. With substantial funding from external sources, particularly India, and proceeds from narcotics, terrorist organizations have flourished and expanded. This has deeply polarized Pakistani society, disrupting its social fabric and significantly impacting both the economy and governance. Pakistan’s fragile and inconsistent governance has further allowed these elements to infiltrate its political framework. The intertwined Afghan-Pakistan economy also plays a pivotal role in this dynamic.
The proliferation of such organizations spread like cancer following the U.S. withdrawal, penetrating cities across Pakistan, where individuals were drawn to their ranks through religious and economic incentives. Over two decades of war with the US, Afghan-based terrorist organizations have advanced their use of modern technology. Cyberspace, the internet and Wi-Fi have become critical tools for these groups. Terrorists exploit cyberspace in three key areas: identifying targets, determining time and space for operations and devising effective methodologies to engage targets. They employ technology and cyber connectivity to activate explosives with precision and subsequently incite panic through media manipulation. Additionally, terrorists utilize cyberspace to wage fifth-generation warfare, fostering public depression and defeatism. This dual use of technology underscores its capacity for both human progress and destruction.
The most important is the reaction of the state once an incident occurs. It tends to restrict the use of Cyber connectivity to isolate the population from the terrorists. Unfortunately, this is the desired result of terrorist organization to create a vacuum in society. Black out encourage the fake news and can be targeted for the desired results. It is, therefore, important for the state that it does not resort to knee jerk reaction and initiates counter productive actions. The restrictions on the internet, cyber tools are extremely damaging for the state in all three dimensions, social, economic and administrative. Eighty percent of administrative, banking, communication, defence and scores of governments run on computer-based programmes. All government apparatus and commercial activity will slow down. Almost 60 terrorist entities, both large and small, are active worldwide. Many of these have established networks in Afghanistan, with sleeper cells operating in Pakistan and Iran. Recently, their activities have expanded into Pakistan, Central Asia and even Russia, following the withdrawal of US forces. These groups pose significant challenges for Pakistan and Iran, both of which find themselves in a state of semi-war. Pakistan faces multiple threats, including opposition to CPEC, Indian subversive activities and state-sponsored terrorism in Balochistan and KP, compounded by a media war that bolsters physical, cyber and digital terrorism. Since the 1970s, Afghan leaders have been involved, while US strategists, driven by varying strategic objectives, overlooked these activities as long as US vital interests remained unaffected. The situation remains exceedingly complex.
Re-election of Mr Trump as President of the United States for the second time will usher multiple strategic and economic challenges. The geostrategic milieu is going to change globally as well as in South Asia. The most critical situation will be in for Pakistan and Afghanistan. The emergence of global South vs global North is going to create fishers globally in the geostrategic spectrum. For Mr Trump Afghanistan will re-merge in importance.
Pakistan’s strategic importance will re-emerge being on the crossroads. China‘s tilt towards India, a rapprochement between the two countries, what will be Pakistan’s stance? China cannot ignore Pakistan with an investment of over US $60 billion, as well as initiation of phase two of CPEC. CPEC is the flagship and vital project of BRI. A very complicated scenario is going to develop.
To keep Pakistan in check, multiple measures are likely to be undertaken by these powers. There is also a possibility that terrorist organizations operating within the region will escalate their activities.
Afghanistan soil will be used. In Pakistan, the lack of cohesion, technological tools in handling the diverse threats of terrorism always has been a weak point in tracing the terrorists who sneak in and hit the targets of their choice and the timings. Yet human and technology both are important. The coming days will see more and more of this phenomenon; both being generated by anti-Pakistan elements, India, CIA as well as Mossad.
There are circles in the government who feel that we should negotiate with the terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban also are pressing on this very point. It is the trick. The fact of the matter is that the Afghan Government is basically running on tribal norms where all regions and tribal leaders are autonomous in their actions. They are not bound to obey the orders of Kabul. They allow space for the terrorists in Afghanistan who are at liberty to strike at Pakistan and other adjoining countries. The question of negotiations is a complex issue, with whom to negotiate, especially due to the polarity of such organisations.
The answer is that the Afghan Government and their elite tribal leaders in various regions must be convinced that they should take action against Taliban regionally by not allowing them the space and free movement of weapons and equipment. If the Taliban Government does not agree, then there is a likelihood that tensions will increase between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The present scenario, as it exists, cannot go on forever. Formal recognition of the Taliban Government is important to bring them into the fold of international law. There has to be a stern action to be taken against the terrorists, whether trans-border or inside Pakistan. A very strong political will, public support as well as resources are required, especially the intelligence to tackle the situation.
The commitment of economic development for the FATA area and Balochistan is vital to thwart Indian designs. A master plan is necessary to develop these regions at an accelerated pace. Afghanistan and Balochistan will be prime target of Indian activity. How Pakistan is going to cope with this situation is a complex and very serious matter politically and militarily. It needs a very thorough study and input by all stakeholders in Pakistan. Former FATA and Balochistan can only be tackled with public support at grass root level.—Concluded
—The writer is a senior researcher and analyst. He regularly contributes to the national press.
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