No Cold War with China-Russia ?
THERE is no possibility of Cold War between Russia, China and USA. Joe Biden and Russian President in their meeting reiterated the same.
Cold War is in no body’s interest. However, USA considers China will continue to pose challenges.
Whereas NATO in its deliberations in the meeting with Joe Biden concluded Russia is a growing security threat.
Both in the strategic context and also in South Asia. Russia and China’s growing strategic closeness rings the bell.
NATO and USA converge on this growing threat. Whereas Russia view USA interfering in Russia’s rim states through NATO. EU, NATO and USA agreed that in Afghanistan sustainable solutions is required.
What is a sustainable solution is a question? Russia and China have divergent views. Indian role also came under discussion.
USA considers India can play a role. But, the question is Taliban are closing fast on to Kabul will not accept any Indian involvement and India knows it well. Reportedly India is trying to reach Taliban.
On the other USA is demanding Pakistan to give transit facility to India. The proposal is certainly not acceptable to Pakistan.
It effectively reduces chances India can play any effective role in Afghanistan. Rather India is worried in case Taliban succeed, Indian investment will be in jeopardy.
Aexnder Von in a talk to DW news expressed the same analysis that concerns implications of Cold War. His views are the same there will be no Cold War. Big power irritation mutual will continue with little possibility of Cold War.
It seems logical in post pandemic period. Pandemic has created economic, social and strategic fault lines. The second question relate to changing world order power balance. In the meetings of G-7, NATO, EU, China remained a focal point.
Is China changing World Order. China denies this US assertion. G-7, however, confirmed they consider China a challenge seriously. The fact is, the West needs another enemy as politico-strategic tool of their policy.
The steam from Islamphobia running out and Muslim countries are lining up against this boggy and not tolerating any more.
After the (former) Soviet Union’s fall it was Islam which was declared enemy by the US think tanks including Kissinger.
Today Russia stands as member of OIC. Prior to Biden-Putin meeting — Biden changed his stance from killer Putin to smart adversary.
Proving diplomatic pragmatism and with years of diplomatic games. Will the Biden-Putin meeting change any thing. The possibly is no. Vis-a-vis China, growing closeness of Russia China is a cause of concern.
US considers China’s fast growing technology, and growing economic edge a threat. BRI is considered a tool and ingress in those countries not happy with USA.
Thus, BRI to be matched with B3W about 400 billion investment jointly by USA and EU. One earth concept, but still in conceptual stage.
Where as China coming up with new grouping; China, Russia, Turkey, Pakistan and some other countries including Iran is emerging another power centre.
Thus there are going to beat least three power centres. It is already causing battle lines to be redrawn.
Pak dilemma is its strategic location in the confluence of three nuclear powers. Each with own agenda. Pakistan cannot be ignored.
For Pakistan it is a defining moment. It will be test of diplomacy and strategic acumen to have a balanced policy. CPEC is now our life line. It has to be shielded from internal and external attacks.
In post withdrawal scenario of USA from Afghanistan US pressures on Pakistan to allow bases, and Imran Khan government’s firm stand, Absolutely NO has already shaken American pride. In the history of Pakistan no government ever dared to say no.
Thus multi-dimensional pressures are likely to emerge including fires of subversion and sabotage. Exploitation of fault lines including regime change. But Pakistan can not endure another spate of terrorist blames by allowing the bases.
The bases to my calculations are to keep an eye on Pakistan, China and support to its strategic partner, India. Afghanistan is secondary in post with-drawl period.
To face the growing pressures domestic improvement in political milieu, creating strategic reserves including economic recovery is essential.
Already EITAN NA-h the Israeli Ambassador in the UAE has stated he is looking for change while speaking to CNN.
—The writer, a retired Brigadier, a veteran of 1965, 1971 wars with SJ, SI, and IS Bar Gallantry. A senior Defence and Industry analyst.