PUTIN’S speech at the Valdai Club is an important one. Putin announced that the USA’s desire to impose its own world order is not acceptable. Geopolitical realities have changed, and this must be recognized by the political leadership of the United States. He asserted that the West imposed the Ukraine War on Russia, a war it did not start. It is seen as an extension of the US’s hegemonic global order. Russia did not have any imperial or territorial ambitions. In 1992, after the dismemberment of the Soviet Union, an agreement was reached among the powers that NATO would not extend its membership in the East to include newly emerged republics. This agreement has been violated, and in 2014, following a coup, Zelenskyy came to power with the West’s backing. He immediately began efforts to have Ukraine included in the EU. As Ukraine falls within Russia’s sphere of influence, Russia resisted, leading to the current conflict. It has now been almost two years since the war began which is still going on. Many of Ukraine’s major cities in the east have been destroyed and around 34% of its territory has been ceded to the Russian Federation through a referendum in the Donbas region.
It is now widely presumed that Ukraine has lost the war. The Spring offensive webpage indicates that there are not enough manpower and equipment to continue the fighting. NATO is not in a position to supply ammunition and further equipment. Within America, there are voices questioning the wisdom of continuing with this saga. America, known for human rights and as a flag bearer, must restore that image, according to the consensus of leading analysts. But the present stance in West Asia is contrary to that. Putin abundantly made it clear in his speech that Russia has no imperial and territorial ambitions. The USA has lost its hegemonic power and is trying to regain lost ground by creating an external enemy. US politicians have also lost touch with real politics, as they are pursuing the old, aggressive policy.
In the follow up of the sanctions to squeeze Russia of its economic resources, US apparently misjudged. The BRICKS and decolonization is the phenomenon, a direct result of the sanctions by the United States. The sanctions, the world financial institutions and the swift financial transaction system are turned into political tools. This state of the affairs could not remain static. The only constant is political change. Putin also criticized the United Nations for its inaction to help the victim states. Russia is for reforms in the United Nation and enlargement of the Security Council to include India, Brazil and South Africa. It is a major shift, a political reality and geostrategic impact. The expansion of NATO threatens Russia, asserts Mr. Putin. Ukraine’s bid to join NATO is a direct threat, a consensus amongst analysts. As strategic necessity Russia is expanding its interaction with China, says Mr. Putin. A strategic bloc has emerged, now the line between the East and the West is visible and drawn. The Russian view is especially, Mr. Putin’s G20 is basically meant for economic coordination among the member countries. Of late, efforts are made especially by India to use G20 forum for political objectives which prompted Mr. Putin’s remarks. He’s very clear that politicized-G20, will be on the path of liquidation very soon.
Nuclear doctrine, Russia made it very clear to continue their existing policy and no change. Russia had ratified the policy but US did not, therefore, Russia is under no obligation to inform about nuclear testing.
On the question of the Canadian stance, it has proved the thesis advanced by Russia that some countries are on the path to promote nationalist parties or adopting to be pro-Nazi policies. With regard to the western propaganda, the war has drained the Russian economy, President Putin categorically stated that at the moment Russia is a much healthier economy and on a steady path. Of course, they have diversified some of the resources for the war and they can afford it. Referring to Ponzi Game, he was of the view that the western arrogance is hurting them alone rather than pressuring any other country. Putin categorically stated who are, THEY, to dictate or tell any country what to do. Time has come to abandon this approach.
He asserted Russia always tried to offer solutions to achieve peaceful solutions of the conflicts first, as a peaceful solution is in everyone’s interest. The West must show reasonable restraint. To gain something one has to give something. It is a world governed by ‘give and take’. Contrarily, Russia continued to be under pressure from the West. In such a position to face their pressure, and Russia will continue to face, yet we are trying to end the war to stop the bloodshed, the West has lost the reality.
China is constantly under pressure from the United States. China treats the strategic manoeuvres in the South China Sea as their right. China’s growth has shown that it has the power to resist sanctions or trade restrictions. China’s closeness with Russia and its interaction with other countries under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represent an entirely different strategic approach by any standards in the present century. Through a soft approach, China is developing the infrastructure of underdeveloped areas and connecting more than 86 countries in the contemporary world. This has increased its influence not only in the Middle East and Southeast Asia but also in Africa. It has raised alarms in western political power circles, and the latest manoeuvre by Mr. Joe Biden to create a transatlantic route through the Middle East and Israel to Europe is one such move. Nevertheless, the recent flare-up of war in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel has buried this plan, and it’s unlikely to work in the foreseeable future. Most importantly, India’s stance regarding Palestine is worth noting. They are still playing a double game, as they are tied with the US and Israel in multiple strategic and defence agreements.
As far as the Pakistan is concerned, there is a meaningful message. Pakistan will continue to be under pressure. Pakistan, being on the crossroad of three nuclear powers, vying for influences Pakistan to have a very bold and pragmatic policy, not possible without economic independent policy. Pakistan must try to join the BRICKS, the new BRICs currency and new international foreign exchange remittance route. According to a British Energy Expert who was in Pakistan in the mid-90s, Pakistan has material resources, manpower and fiscal potential but mismanaged. It is time for Pakistan to say goodbye to IMF and try to regain its strength from its own resources which is entirely in its hand and possible. A short difficult time can pay much better dividends for the future. The axiom is the change only come from out of box solutions.
—The author is a decorated veteran with 32 years of active military service and 30 years of corporate and industry experience and a senior defence analyst and researcher.
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