Syed Qamar Afzal Rizvi
SINCE 2011, the name of Kim Jong-un has been or
ganically associated with N-Korean perspective. Un
der his leadership, as some call Jong an ultra-nationalist, Pyongyang seems to have orchestrated its global reputation, particularly in terms of the Jong-un regime’s globally established uncompromising policy position. With the expanding tides that Kim remained absent for weeks, uncertainty hovered over his mysterious disappearance. But as usual, Kim reappeared on the N-Korean scene— thereby discarding growing rumours about his demise. Mr Kim did not make a public appearance since presiding over a Workers’ Party Politburo meeting on 11 April, and the following day, state media reported him inspecting fighter jets at an air defence unit. His absence unleashed a series of unconfirmed media reports over his condition, which officials in Seoul previously poured cold water on. The growing speculation about Kim’s health first arose due to his absence from anniversary of the birthday of North Korea’s founding father Kim Il Sung (Jong-un’s grandfather) on 15 April. But South Korea’s presidential office said Kim appeared to be handling state affairs as usual and that it had no information about rumours regarding his health.
Understandably, there has been good reason to be sceptical and cautious about the reports about his health. Many past reports regarding the health and wellbeing of North Korean leaders have proven inaccurate. For example, Kim Jong-un has been reported to be very ill in the past only to emerge none the worse for wear. Before that, there was erroneous reporting on the purported deaths of his grandfather Kim Il Sung, and father Kim Jong-il, long before they actually died. The secrecy that dictates every official pronouncement emanating from North Korea makes it virtually impossible to construct a definitive account of the state of its leadership, including the health of members of the Kim dynasty. The most likely explanation for Kim’s absence was with North Korea declaring the Coronavirus pandemic an existential threat … he most likely was taking steps to ensure his health or may have been impacted in some way personally by the virus,” said Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the Centre for the National Interest think-tank in Washington, DC. Cheong Seong-Chang, an analyst at South Korea’s Sejong Institute, said the video footage of Kim suggested he is recovering from some sort of medical setback that affected his walking, possibly related to his ankle.
Yet a former senior North Korean diplomat has tendered an apology after saying Kim Jong-un was probably so ill he could not stand, days before he emerged on state media smoking and walking briskly at an event attended by hundreds of officials. But what seems to be striking that as soon as Jong-un reemerged on the North Korean scene, Pyongyang and Seoul exchanged gunfire across the heavily fortified border Sunday, the South Korean military said, in the first shooting in the area in more than two years. Interestingly, the incident took place a day after North Korea released photos of leader Kim Jong Un making his first public appearance in nearly three weeks, tamping down speculation about his health. The timing seems very interesting. Just after 24 hours since the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un re-appeared after a 21-day absence. Recently, there have been the military drills in North in recent months to improve readiness to fight an actual war, according to state media.
In view of Seoul, Pyongyang has been using the tactic of escalating to de-escalate, using its military posturing as leverage in later formal negotiations. But any sign of direct fire will be a gross-disappointment to many in South Korea. There has been a tremendous diplomatic progress made in two years to ease tension between the two countries after President Moon Jae-in met Kim Jong-un. The two sides signed a military agreement, yet any deliberate shots fired would breach that pact. However, the shrouded secrecy that dictates every official pronouncement coming from North Korea makes it unpalatable to construct a definitive account of the state of its leadership, including the health of members of the Kim dynasty. The regime’s totalitarian control over the flow of information is absolute. While mobile technology has made it impossible to prevent every single morsel of information from reaching the outside world – surrounding the areas near the border with China – the most sensitive details rest only with a small number of trusted people until they are disseminated, in highly propagandist terms by state-controlled media.
Nonetheless, at the dawn of Kim Jong-Un’s reign, Professors Kwon and Chung delivered a penetrating . . . argument for how North Korea remains adamantly isolated and surprisingly stable. Indoctrinating their analysis in 1994 with the Great National Bereavement triggered by the death of Kim Il Sung, the two authors backtracked to evaluate the means by which the Great Leader created the personality cult that has had persisted through the reign of his late son, Kim Jong Il, and grandson, Kim Jong Un. Massive parades reflecting military might, frequent publicity trips made by the successive leaders throughout the country and enormous public artworks depicting the lineage ensured ‘a transition of power based on hereditary charisma and son’gun, North Korea’s governing political and social ideology that prioritizes the military before all other segments of society. There appears no second opinion that the legacy of Kim family in North Korea remains very historical.
Notably, it remains eight years that Kim Jong-un became the First Secretary of the Korean Worker’s Party (in 2012). Five months after the death of his father, Kim Jong-Il, the new title signified or symbolised that the 28-year-old third son of the Dear Leader was ascending if not yet fully ascendant. Nevertheless, many North Korean analysts have been expecting Kim to be at most number one in collective leadership. Or more likely front man for someone else’s rule, perhaps his uncle, Jang Song-thaek, who first entered national leadership under Kim’s grandfather and stood in for Kim Jong-il after the latter’s stroke.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law.
