BRICS—the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—is expanding its membership from January 1, 2024. This historic decision was announced by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa while hosting the group’s summit in Johannesburg in August 2023. The new members will be Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The ingress of fresh entrants has prompted Pakistan to seek membership of the esteemed group with the Foreign Office Spokesperson confirming Islamabad’s “formal request” to join the group. BRICS was formed in 2010 by the addition of South Africa to its predecessor called BRIC. The organization was formed with the specific purpose of highlighting investment opportunities and had not been a formal intergovernmental organization initially. However, since 2009, they have increasingly evolved into a more cohesive geopolitical bloc, with their governments meeting annually at formal summits and coordinating multilateral policies.
In contemporary times, the BRICS nations have emerged as the foremost geopolitical rival to the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States), the leading advanced economies of the world—the main sponsors for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and The World Bank. Thus, BRICS have been implementing competing initiatives such as the New Development Bank (originally named as the BRICS Bank), the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, the BRICS payment system, the BRICS Joint Statistical Publication and the BRICS basket reserve currency. For the past one year, impressed by the progress of BRICS and perhaps disillusioned by the reservations of the G7 and the stringent policies of their financial systems in maintaining their exclusivity, at least forty developing countries expressed interest in joining BRICS.
Currently the BRICS nations encompass about 27% of the world’s land surface and 42% of the global population. Brazil, China, India and Russia are among the world’s ten largest countries in terms of population, and GDP. All five states are members of the G20, with a combined nominal GDP of US$28 trillion (about 27% of the gross world product), a total GDP of around US$57 trillion (33% of global GDP), and an estimated US$4.5 trillion in combined foreign reserves (as of 2018). With the entry of the new members, the collective eleven countries have a population of 3.7 billion. Expansion of the group is thus based on the plan to counter dominance and reshape global governance into a multipolar world order that promotes the voices of the global south more prominently.
The question arises, why has Pakistan sought to gain membership of this esteemed group? Perhaps, it was attracted by the fact that bilateral relations among BRICS are conducted mainly on the basis of non-interference, equality, mutual benefit and inclusivity. Erstwhile hostile Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia reached a rapprochement through the mediation of the People’s Republic of China. The biggest opposition to Pakistan’s membership emanates from arch-rival India, with whom it has fought three wars and been on the brink of conflict for more than seven and a half decades of its existence. Pakistan, which already shares membership with India in the security and strategic alliance the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), may be seeking the more economy and development based group the BRICS’ membership to secure support in achieving lasting peace with India.
The SCO has to date not exercised any pressure on India for reducing tensions with Pakistan since it has refrained from interfering in bilateral issues. Islamabad may be sanguine that the BRICS membership will improve its relations with India. The harsh reality is that, gauging from India’s past track record, it will oppose Pakistan’s entry into the august group, but also, perhaps China, Pakistan’s closest ally will weigh its options in backing Pakistan in the light of the former’s economic ties with India as well as Pakistan’s current economic vicissitudes. The challenges that Pakistan is facing, comprise: internal political turmoil, the state of its dwindling economy and its rather beleaguered exterior maneuver, which may constrain Beijing’s backing Pakistan’s ambitious quest. Additionally, the founding members of BRICS, the newly inducted members are also likely to be swayed by their own economic and political interests by favouring a motion aligning with New Delhi’s view on the subject rather than providing any leeway to Islamabad.
India, emboldened by its political clout, rising esteem in international forums and a healthy economic standing, has played the role of “spoiler” in nearly every endeavour by Pakistan to acquire international relevance. Whether it is the field of cricket, diplomacy or Islamabad’s quests for joining international fora, New Delhi has either blocked Pakistan’s aspirations or cast slanderous accusations at Islamabad. The favourite stick that India continues to flog Pakistan with is its alleged support for terrorism, which is a price Islamabad pays for supporting the legitimate cause of the Kashmiri dream of ridding itself of New Delhi’s tyranny. In the recent past, terror attacks in Pakistan have shown a sharp rise, causing a large number of fatalities including those of security forces as well as civilians but instead, Islamabad is being painted by New Delhi as a breeding ground for terrorism.
The current crisis in the Middle East may have tested India’s diplomatic skills and balancing act of supporting the US and Israeli stance while catering for the Arab and Muslim sensitivities but New Delhi has become adept at the game. Take the instance of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, India continues to buy fuel and weapons from Russia despite the threat of sanctions by the US and the EU. Pakistan, on one hand is desirous of supporting the cause of the Kashmiris, has been vocal in raising its voice in favour of the Palestinians, has sacrificed tremendously in the war on terror but gets bogged down when it comes to getting international support for the issues it believes in. In its ardent desire to gain membership of BRICs, perhaps Pakistan will have to be patient. It needs to set its own house in order and gain a modicum of stability before it can see the fruition of its dreams.
—The writer is a Retired Group Captain of PAF, who has written several books on China.
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views expressed are writer’s own.
