The great powers’ strategic competition and the insecure states’ increasing reliance on nuclear weapons for sovereign defence have undermined the nuclear arms control regime.
Besides, the dissemination of nuclear technology and material has proliferated the latent nuclear weapon states.
Iran-US nuclear standoff exposes the limits of the Trump Administration to alter Tehran’s nuclear policy.
Similarly, Tehran has failed to convince the Western nations that it does not harbour the ambitions of nuclear weapons.
Trump Administration is striving to secure a new nuclear deal with Iran.
It is pursuing a bilateral agreement with Tehran by threatening military action if diplomatic efforts fail.
While expressing its willingness to negotiate a new bilateral agreement, the Iranian ruling elite seems inflexible on its uranium enrichment right, being a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Iran’s unwillingness to yield to President Donald Trump’s demands frustrates him.
On June 6, 2025, he said, “They won’t be enriching.
If they enrich, then we’re going to have to do it the other way.”
Trump’s hinting of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear sites seems unpersuasive.
Even his proposal to allow Tehran temporary uranium enrichment before ending it was completely rejected by Iran.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff declared that Washington will not tolerate any uranium enrichment by Iran, calling the issue “one very, very clear red line.”
The American negotiators are failing to realize that Iran has a right to produce low-enriched uranium for nuclear power generation, nuclear medicine and agriculture productivity.
Secondly, why did Iran give up its entire enrichment capability when everyone in its neighborhood is pursuing a civilian nuclear program under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards?
Therefore, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rejected the proposal, stating that it breached Tehran’s principles of independence and asked Washington to reconsider its approach to Iran’s nuclear program.
President Donald Trump’s preference for a coercive bilateral approach instead of a multilateral process to influence Iranian nuclear policy marginalized the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia and China.
In addition, the rapid transformation in international geopolitics has created a favourable diplomatic environment for Iran.
Even if the Trump Administration agrees to the low-enrichment of uranium under the IAEA safeguards, the problem continues because the Americans desire to shut down Iran’s heavily protected underground sites and suspend its conducting new research and development of centrifuges.
Neither demand is acceptable to Tehran.
Another disturbing factor is IAEA’s distrust of Iran’s cooperation as a party to the NPT.
According to the IAEA estimates, Iran has amassed enough uranium enriched to 60% — a short step away from weapons-grade.
It was reported the material is enough to manufacture nine nuclear weapons.
Tehran’s strategic partnerships with Beijing and Moscow and the absence of the UK, Germany and France from the negotiations process, significantly reduce international pressure on Tehran’s nuclear stance.
This geopolitical shift, coupled with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ explicit overtures to de-escalate tensions with Iran, has notably strengthened Tehran’s position in the region.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi publicly supported diplomatic efforts to resolve the nuclear standoff between Tehran and Washington.
In April 2025, Prince Khalid bin Salman, the brother of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Defence Minister of Saudi Arabia, visited Iran.
He met with senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
His visit underlined Riyadh’s support for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff between Tehran and Washington.
The neighbours of Iran are against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s militaristic approach against Iran.
He has been lobbying for military action to destroy Iran’s entire nuclear infrastructure.
He has called for Iran’s enrichment capabilities and nuclear facilities to be fully dismantled.
They are convinced that the US military operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities deteriorates further regional security and strengthens and hasten Iran’s resolve for nuclear weapons, entailing the destabilizing nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
For instance, for decades, Saudi Arab has maintained that it develop nuclear weapons if Iran acquires nuclear weapons.
Pakistan’s principled stance on Iran’s nuclear program is encouraging for the Iranians and potentially discouraging for the Trump Administration.
Since the beginning, Pakistan has maintained that Iran must fulfill its obligations under the NPT and has a right to develop and operationalize a nuclear program for civilian use.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reiterated Islamabad’s stance by stating that Iran can acquire a complete fuel cycle for peaceful use.
On May 26, 2025, he said, “We stand with our Iranian brothers and reaffirm our support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear program.
” He added, “Pakistan fully supported Iran’s right to have a civilian nuclear program.
”Thus, Islamabad desires Tehran’s cooperation with the IAEA and to advance its civilian nuclear program within the framework of NPT.
In summary, the Iranians remain resolute in their determination to continue enriching uranium as their legitimate right, without any intention of exiting the NPT.
This steadfastness underscores the enduring nature of the nuclear standoff.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. ([email protected])
