IRAN launched a barrage of 180-200 missile strikes to attack Nevatim airbase, Tel Nof airbase, the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv and other areas in and around Tel Aviv on October 1, 2024. The critical examination of Operation True Promise-2 reveals that Iran had deliberately avoided civilian casualties—the operation aimed to demonstrate Iran’s military capability to inflict unacceptable damage on Israel. An attempt was made to establish a stable deterrence between Tehran and Tel Aviv—the tactic to deter Israel and its ally’s covert intelligence and overt military operations against Iran. Besides, the operation was an endeavour to restore Tehran’s credibility in the Middle East.
The chances of Israel’s restraint are remote. The intensity of Tel Aviv’s military action and the level of Washington’s support will determine the future trajectory of war in the region. The missile strikes have provided Netanyahu an opportunity to broaden the war theatre and create a situation where the United States will be involuntarily involved in the threatening all-out war between Iran and Israel. Without American participation, Israelis cannot terminate Iranian influence in Middle Eastern geopolitics and destroy its missile inventories and latent nuclear weapons potential. Last week, strikes were different from the April strikes. Iran’s previous strikes against Israel involved slow-moving drones and cruise missiles, which provided the latter more warning time. During the recent attack, Iran used more advanced and capable missiles—Emad and Ghadr-1 medium-range ballistic missiles (variants of the Shahab-3) and the Fattah-1 (Iran described it as a ‘hypersonic missile).Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a reputed American scholar, tweeted, “Our first count is that 32 missiles struck Nevatim Air Base.” Despite the successful attack, Iran’s vulnerability multiplied. Israeli officials warned that Iran would “pay a price” for its actions.
Israel has an edge over Iran in military technologies, including satellite monitoring systems, due to the generous financial, technological, and material backing of the United States. Israel is designated as a major non-NATO ally by the U.S. government and, thereby, a significant purchaser and user of U.S. military equipment. In addition, Israel and the United States are also involved in joint projects to develop military technology and weaponry. Its early warning systems, offensive and defensive missile systems, fighter jets, etc., were manufactured with the technological and material assistance of the United States. Although Israel has state-of-the-art military hardware, it lacks reliable missile defence systems to intercept long-range ballistic missiles, especially hypersonic missiles. It’s an open secret that Iron Dome only provides a reliable defence against rockets and drones, and David’s Sling is effective against short-range missiles having ranges of 100 to 200 kilometres. Similarly, Arrow systems, comprising Arrow-2 and Arrow-3, are designed to intercept missiles up to 1,500 miles away and 100 miles above the earth but are not well-equipped to shoot down hypersonic ballistic missiles.
The Israeli Defence Force’s advantage is its close coordination with the U.S. military and the latter assistance during the crisis. The U.S. Navy destroyers—Bulkeley and the Cole—deployed in the Middle East fired approximately a dozen interceptors against the incoming Iranian missiles. The scope and scale of Israel’s perceived retaliation is hard to predict. Hypothetically, Israel can attack four targets, i.e., military facilities, oil and gas exploring and storage locations, nuclear sites, and politico-religious leadership. The Israeli hardliners are pressurizing the Netanyahu to strike Iranian nuclear sites and oil and gas facilities. Conversely, the Iranian missile force and air defences are on high alert to defend against Israeli attack and to immediately respond to such an attack. Israel’s attack on nuclear sites hastens Iran’s nuclearization processes.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency assessment, Iran has expanded its uranium enrichment capacity and purity, which enabled it to take a few weeks to have sufficient uranium enriched for a weapon. Realistically, despite the close coordination between the Israeli and American forces and the U.S. naval destroyers’ attempt to shield the former, the Iranian missiles managed to breach defences and bang the targets on October 1, 2024. The missile interceptors cannot intercept Fattah-2, a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle with speeds between Mach 5 and 20. The recent strikes manifested Iran’s missile proficiency.
However, the conventional war fighting capability is not sufficient to deter nuclear blackmail or nuclear aggression. Israel has acquired nuclear weapon capability, and its leadership has signalled to use nuclear weapons for its defence. Therefore, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran may compel Iran to exit NPT and conduct nuclear tests.
The uninterrupted availability of advanced information technology is a prerequisite for combating modern warfare. Iran needs this capability. Therefore, Tehran approached Russia for increased satellite intelligence cooperation. If the Kremlin agreed, Tehran would have advanced early warning of Israeli retaliatory strikes. With Russian support, Iranian systems will have a vital window to detect, track, and engage Israeli missiles and jet fighters, which will travel over 2000 kilometres to destroy the targets in Iran. To conclude, the alarming factor is the probability of direct involvement of the United States and Russia in the escalating warfare in the Middle East. It is debatable whether Israel alone can inflict severe damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities operated under IAEA safeguards.
It is incapable of destroying the deepest-buried facilities without US assistance. The Americans are equally interested in eliminating Iran’s nuclear potential and checking its role in regional politics. Thus, the spiralling skirmishing between Iran and Israel could intertwine the great powers in the regional war, causing more significant problems for the world.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.
