INDIA and Pakistan the two nuclear power countries of south Asia have been daggers drawn since independence and now relations between the two have become more strained in recent history. Both sides realize that present state of affairs is really unfortunate and there is an urgent need to mend fences and improve situation for the greater benefit of both countries. Pakistan should strive for friendly and fraternal terms with its neighbors dispute between people to people contacts, end of hostility and resolution of all political differences for the satisfaction of both countries. The rise of Narendra Modi and now his third term in office has resulted in an attitude of arrogance from the Indian side.
The Indian foreign policy planners are now totally opposed to any fresh initiative to start a serious dialogue with Pakistan. They don’t seem to have any interest or need for interacting with their neighbor to resolve the various irritants in the way of establishing friendly relations. In the Indian eyes Pakistan with internal problems of religious extremism, economic chaos and civil military conflicts is under great strain and for this reason even back door channels or track two diplomacy has ended.
All previous meetings between the two at different levels have not proved beneficial and most meetings have ended in accusations counter accusations and deadlocks mostly on thorny issue of Kashmir problem. During the last seventy six years the only successful meeting between the two has been the signing of the Indus water treaty in the 1960s and possibly the Shimla accord signed by Z.A. Bhutto and Indira Gandhi in the aftermath of the 1971war.
Apart from these two treaties all other meetings have been without any positive results and a complete waste of time and energy. The Indian leadership has always adopted a hostile attitude especially after the Mumbai attacks and Pakistan has exhibited a friendlier attitude. Very recently Pakistani PM sent a message of congratulations to Narendra Modi on his assumption of office for the third time but no indication of any thaw in the frigid relations was seen. It appears that leadership in both countries is not really interested in improving relations.
The Indian side is of the firm belief that it is the Pakistan army that calls the shots and talking to the elected representatives will be of no consequenceso it is up to the military establishment to make a move for mending fences with The maverick Modi probably believes that better relations between the two countries will not benefit India and intimidating and threatening Pakistan appears to be his policy at least for now.The result of this is that relations between the two neighbors are under severe strain and there appears no light at the end of the tunnel.
The Indian subcontinent is home to about 25% of the world population and both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers so friendly relations between the two is in the greater interest of the world community and any conflict between the two could pose a grave danger to the entire world.The Govt. of Pakistan has shown grace and magnanimity by extending an invitation to Mr. Modi to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) council of heads meeting in Islamabad.
Shehbaz Sharif attended the SCO meeting in New Delhi. Chances of Modi coming to Pakistan are rather remote because of the Modi policy of isolating Pakistan and attending the Islamabad conference will not be in line with the current Indian policy regarding Pakistan. India and Pakistan have both been members of the SCO since 2017 but India has always kept its distance from the SCO probably because of the active role of China and India believes that the SCO is a forum for advancing and promoting the interests of China so even now it is very unlikely that Modi will attend the Islamabad meeting of the SCO.
India Pakistan relations have been in a frozen state since 2008. The 2008 Mumbai attacks (also referred to as 26/11 attacks) were a series of terrorist attacks that took place in November 2008, when allegedly 10 members of Lashkar-i-Taiba, a militant organization from Pakistan, carried out 12 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks lasting four days across Mumbai killing over 150 people. Relations dipped even further when in 2019 India revoked the status of Jammu and Kashmir and since then there has been nothing but deterioration between the relations of the two countries. The political positions of the two countries are totally divergent and opposite so any thaw between the two in the foreseeable future appears to be wishful thinking. India believes in the policy of no dialogue and no engagement with Pakistanand to continue the present status quo.
China is the fly in the ointment. China in India is seen as a deadly enemy and many people believe that China is a mortal threat for India. Indian planners are fearful of a two front confrontation that is with China and Pakistan at the same time and those in favor of a dialogue with Pakistan though in minority believe that engaging Pakistan can neutralize that threat of a potential two front situation.
The Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar surprisingly showed some flexibility recently when he commented “I think the era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan is over. Actions have consequences, and in so far as Jammu & Kashmir is concerned, (Article) 370 is done. So, the issue today is what kind of relationship we can possibly contemplate with Pakistan. What I do want to say is that we are not passive, and whether events take a positive or negative direction, either way we will react.”
This statement does show a slight shift in India’s policy towards Pakistan.It seems that after a long time, New Delhi is hinting at reciprocating potential peace overtures from Pakistan. Previously, India, under Modi, always responded to questions of a thaw in ties with disdain. But Jaishankar’s remarks suggest that India is open to the idea of positive engagement with Pakistan.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
