Great power competition in the Asia-Pacific
WITH the swiftness, current geopolitical dynamics are shaping up in strategically most important regions of the world herald no sign of peace, cooperation and interdependence among international power blocs in near future.
In the wake of various paradigm shifts at global stage, it is solely the economic, military and strategic rise of China through its billion dollars mega-project of connectivity called BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) spreading from South and Central Asia to Europe to African continent, which is becoming a formidable challenge to the US hegemony, adding to its consternation.
Thus, after decamping from Afghanistan and several other countries including Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Libya in the Middle East which are no more relevant, the US, to shield and protect its global dominance and world unipolar political structure, has resorted to stage a new war theatre in the Asia-Pacific with the single objective to contain, hinder and coerce China’s advancements and ascendancy in the region with full cooperation from its allies.
While pursuing aggressive manoeuvres, Washington on 16 September, 2021, forged a new trilateral security agreement with the UK and Australia named (AUKUS).
Under the garb of “freedom of navigation”, “free and open Indo-Pacific” and “rule based order” this new coalition entirely aims at countering Chinese power in the Asia-Pacific.
According to this pact of $ 66 billion, Australia will be assisted to build 12 nuclear-powered submarines.
These efforts will enhance Australia’s naval power to impede and challenge China’s preponderance in the Asia-Pacific.
China’s embassy in Washington accused the pact as coordinated effort towards a “Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice”.
The AUKUS will certainly give boost to nukes’ race in the region which however violates the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty signed in 1968.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian stated the deal would seriously undermine regional peace and stability and would severely intensify the “Arm Race”.
Now, after seeing US forging new alliances and building military capabilities in the Ocean, China too will expedite its Integrated Counter Diplomacy (ICD) alongside building up more nukes, frigates, nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers in order to protect its stakes; thus making the region more volatile and vulnerable.
Possibly, China will also forge a powerful military and defence alliance comprising China, Russia, North Korea and Pakistan solely to counterbalance and neutralise the newly formed AUKUS.
Also, China will further harden its stance on Taiwan with increased naval activities in South China Sea where it is already aggressively asserting its claims on disputed territorial waters can lead to the path of military confrontation between US and China.
World knows, Japan and South Korea survive under US influence even in today’s age and they don’t pursue their independent foreign policies.
However, Australia was first time made scapegoat by dragging her into this arm deal with assigned role to counter China’s rising influence in the Asia-Pacific solely for US interests.
A great resentment among Australian people was seen through a number of demonstrations they carried out against their government for becoming US partner in war and belligerence than drawing its attention towards the solution of many other serious issues including COVID-19, climate change and rising inflation.
It would be completely unjust not mentioning the existence of another security coalition named “QUAD” comprising the US, India, Australia and Japan in the Indo-Pacific.
Anticipatedly this security alliance will be vibrant and active in its naval activities solely to contain China. However, India here will be given a special role against China’s ascendancy.
For that, US-India defence trade cooperation is likely to expand with existing agreements named LEMOA, COMCASA and ISA between them.
China will certainly focus on Pakistan and strengthen it militarily to counterbalance India’s hegemonic designs.
Now, Pakistan’s alliance with China and India’s with the US will further intensify the rivalries between India and Pakistan and repercussions of this aggravated hostility would be devastating for the whole region.
Amidst this rising power contest, the US with full support of its allies and partners is likely to target China’s (BRI) maritime and mainland projects of connectivity now.
The certain sensitive geographic points which are on US radar to be targeted are Strait of Mallaca, Taiwan Strait, Kyaukphyu Port of Mynmar, Gawadar Port of Pakistan and Hambantota Port of Sirilanka.
Among all aforementioned projects, Strait of Malacca through which a quarter of all world trade flows is most vulnerable point to be blocked by newly emerged security coalition that will be a great jolt to China to throttle its maritime trade.
Currently, 80% of China’s oil alone, also passes through Mallaca Strait, and this oil supply is becoming highly risky and unsafe by heavy militarization by the US nexus with its allies in the Asia-Pacific. In a nutshell, the US supremacy is presently suffering seismic blows.
After failing on various international fronts, this new adventure is going to yield no sufficient leverage to the US over China.
Today’s China unlike Afghanistan, Palestine, Syria and many other war battered countries is much stronger, politically stable, militarily potent and economically powerful to counter all impending war mongerings and military posturings of the US.
Furthermore, Asia-Pacific countries which benefit through both huge trade with China and investment flow from China, will possibly not go against it in this dreadful game of power projection.
—The writer is Gujranwala based geopolitical analyst and freelance columnist.
