Naveed Aman Khan
WHO is responsible for the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh ? What was the objective? Why now? What will be the consequences of his assassination? How will Iran respond? What will be the recommended policy of Iran for Israel in the light of this unfortunate murder ? Whoever ordered Fakhrizadeh’s assassination apparently tried to achieve three strategic objectives. Firstly, damage Iran’s nuclear program, secondly, obstruct the Biden Administration’s return to the nuclear agreement and thirdly, encourage an escalation that would result in a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. The first objective seems to have been achieved, although the response to the assassination is still ahead and may exact a heavy price. Attainment of the other two goals depends heavily upon the Iranian response, but in any case, these are far reaching objectives with slimmer chances of realization. Unfortunately, the year 2020 began with the assassination of Revolutionary Guards General Qassem Soleimani and approached its close with the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force and led Iran’s strategic effort for regional hegemony, primarily through subversive diplomacy, proxy warfare and arms proliferation. Fakhrizadeh led Iran’s second strategic effort i.e. pursuit of nuclear weapons. The United States took responsibility for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani and in response suffered an Iranian barrage of missiles fired at an American base in Iraq. No responsibility was taken for the killing of Fakhrizadeh, or for actions taken against Iranian targets over the past summer, most notably the attack on the advanced centrifuges facility in Natanz. Although the Pentagon responded with “no comment” regarding Fakhrizadeh’s assassination, intelligence sources in the United States pointed to Israel once more as responsible. No official response was given by Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he “couldn’t reveal everything” related to his actions. Iran, for its part, has blamed Israel directly, promising a response “at the appropriate time and place.” Previous attempts on the lives of Iranian nuclear scientists have also been attributed to Israel, and in response Iran tried to attack Israeli embassies in India and Thailand.
Israel and the United States have worked together in the past to combat Iran’s nuclear program with the penetration of the Stuxnet computer worm in the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, although they differ in their approaches to offensive activity of this sort. Israel’s attack on the nuclear reactor in Syria in 2007 occurred with US blessing. However, it should not be inferred from events shortly before the assassination including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Israel and elsewhere in the region, and the leaked meeting between Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the operation in Tehran was coordinated between all parties. At the same time, it is very likely that this time too, Israel did not surprise the US Administration and even received its blessing. The assassination of Fakhrizadeh was presumably intended to achieve a number of common goals for the Israeli Government and the Trump Administration. The assassination was certainly intended to inflict direct damage on the future of Iran’s nuclear weapons program in which Fakhrizadeh played a key role: Iranian nuclear weapons were his life’s mission. When Iran’s military nuclear program was suspended following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Tehran decided to reach the nuclear threshold through a civilian path. Fakhrizadeh, who led the nuclear weapons team, which hasn’t had and does not have a civilian cover story, preserved its knowledge in various organizations and institutions.
The damage to the nuclear weapons effort, which experts consider to be very significant, is not necessarily due to the loss of scientific knowledge, but due to the loss of project leadership, managerial experience, and access to Iran’s top political echelon salient Fakhrizadeh assets. It is possible that his departure will lengthen the time Iran needs for a nuclear weapons breakout or sneak-out, when it decides on this route. Those with such leadership, management and professional ability are a few and far between and their loss leaves a void that is difficult to fill. Indeed, it seems that Mohsen Fakhrizadeh joins others such as Imad Mughniyeh and Qassem Soleimani, whose positions were filled but could not be replaced. It can also be assumed that his assassination is accompanied by a chilling and deterring effect on other scientists in the current and future project. It seems America is determined to leave a significant and impressive legacy of attacks on the architects of key threats in the Middle East: on Iran’s part, nuclear proliferation, terrorism and pursuit of regional hegemony (Fakhrizadeh and Soleimani). Recently, and perhaps even more so since Trump’s loss in the presidential election, the Administration has imposed increasing sanctions on Iran and its allies along the axis from Tehran to Beirut. It is clear that in what remains of its tenure, the “maximum pressure” policy it has pursued against Iran will not yield any real political achievement other than the heavy burden on the Iranian regime, which reduces the resources it can allocate to expand its regional influence and consolidate its military power. Fakhrizadeh’s assassination, coupled with the sanctions pressure by the United States, may aggravate the opening conditions facing the Biden Administration when it comes to resumed contact with Iran, whether due to a hardening of Iran’s position or its possible response to actions taken against it. Netanyahu, for his part, is determined to use the rest of Trump’s term to score final achievements under his auspices, even at the cost of opening his relations with the Biden Administration with a jarring tone. As the election winds blow again in Israel, it cannot be ruled out that political considerations too influenced the decision on the timing of Fakhrizadeh’s assassination. Benjamin Netanyahu’s tactical moves, win of Joe Biden and assassinations of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and General Soleimani will change the course of politics in the region.
—The writer is book ambassador, columnist, political analyst and author of several books based in Islamabad.
