With the advent of new technological advancements in the field of warfarethe forms and formats of the modern warfare have undergone drastic changes. One of the salient features of this modernization in warfare is initiation of hybrid warfare and threats emanating from this form of warfare. The contemporary academic and strategic communities are widely debating the facets of hybrid warfare and its likely future usages. The term ‘hybrid threats’ or hybrid warfare is defined by scholars as; “A coordinated and synchronized use of military andnon-military instruments by state and non-state actors which deliberately harm or undermine the foundations of other statesand its societies.”
The concept of harming the state may not be novel; nevertheless, strategies being used to implement the concept are modern, more destructive and detrimental for the targeted states and societies. Whereas the theoretical concepts and emerging threats of the hybrid warfare are being studied by the militaries of various states, Pakistan is a classic example which has physically experienced the odd of hybrid warfare, launched by rival forces at regional and global level. Apart from its past sufferance, Pakistani state and society are constantly suffering from this menace contemporarily.
There are five globally recognized trends/ strategies of hybrid warfare: a) exploitation of economic vulnerabilities, b) weaponisation of widespread digitalization, c) distortion of reality, d) manipulation of societal polarization, e) diversification of tools and actors. While targeting Pakistan, all these trends are being used by its rivals with more deliberation and sophistication. Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities have been created over the years and are now being exploited through various ways.
Through economic exploitations, Pakistan is being targeting further causing political instability, social unrest and unending threats of militancy and terrorism. Unfortunately, this is an ongoing process in Pakistan and likely to prevail in the foreseeable future. Weaponization of widespread digitalization means creating through highly accessible channels to spread disinformation, planting discord within a society.
In Pakistan this strategy contribute to create violence, persecution and exploitation. Through massive use of uncontrolled social media, the reality about Pakistani state and society is totally distorted while creating a chaotic situation for causing further unrest in the country. These three factors further create social polarization with multiple contributory factors like exploitation of existing fault lines and creating new fault lines based on ethnicity, provincialism, sectarianism and political affiliations; all are being used to destabilize the state and cause unrest in the society. In order to achieve maximum benefits, the rival forces devise multiple tools and actors. This becomes a relationship of cause and effect. The masses do not realize even that they are harming their own state and society on behest of enemies. This entire circle is very dangerous and causing lot of destruction in Pakistan at the contemporary times.
The experts of this form of warfare perceive that, 21st century will be governed by hybrid warfare; a total transformation in the format of traditional warfare. Primarily this warfare is a military strategy which combines; cyber warfare, irregular warfare and political means. The distinct patterns, the modus operandi used in hybrid warfare include; spreading fake news through highly known media houses, making use of diplomatic means, law-fare and foreign electoral intervention through construction of new narratives. Precisely, hybrid warfare is non-kinetic operations with subversive efforts where aggressor intends to avoid attribution and retribution. The impacts of hybrid warfare are more pronounced after Pakistan experienced and combated the war on terror, yet there are many more reasons for targeting Pakistan by its foes.
Along with the resurgence of militancy and terrorism from Afghan soil, after Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021, a sudden rise was noted in the campaign of politicization of Pakistani Military at the level of various political force, several non-state actors and social media groups. These groups make use of main stream as well as the social media for their disinformation campaigns to defame and politicize Pak Army and its premium intelligence agency in particular.
This campaign had two dimensions; domestically the politicization of Pak Army aims at defamation of this institution, since it has been the most popular institution of Pakistan, loved by masses ever since Pakistan came into being. Externally it appears that after having failed in their strategies and efforts of weakening the Pakistan through direct approach, the international spying network have adopted indirect strategies to weaken Pakistan and its military.
The distinctive feature of the future battlefield is war of narratives, perceptions and opinion making being implemented through hybrid warfare. In this form of warfare nation states would confront each other by using new and innovative technologies.
In the last few years through the use of hybrid warfare, launched through social media, some of mainstream media groups and human rights organizations, the hostile forces have been widely influencing the masses particularly the youth in Pakistan. They are propagating pessimistic narratives against Pakistan and its key institutions through social media.
The modern and emerging technologies and the effects of globalization have created new instruments for hybrid warfare where threats have intensified the vulnerabilities in different domains.
There is an increase in the scale, speed, and reach of hybrid threats. Under such circumstances, the government and people of Pakistan should understand that, “playing field for hybrid actors is expanding as the boundaries of engagement broaden.” The most significant fact is that there is a synchronisation of the above mentioned five trends and strategies of hybrid warfare against Pakistan.
There is a synergizing effect of strategies for widespread and spontaneous damages to Pakistan at the shortest possible timeframe. Pakistan needs to devise the strategies to counter the threats of hybrid warfare at every level; state, government, institutions, provinces, media, educational institutions and in the wider social fabrics.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
