AFTER nearly two-and-a half months of the Israel-Hamas War, Israel’s lack of a clear end game apart from a senseless retribution is of high concern. Despite its aggressive military campaign, Israel has neither achieved a decisive victory against Hamas, nor has it successfully neutered the threat posed by it. Additionally, despite a brutal invasion, the recovery of the Israeli hostages still remains elusive. This lack of clarity about the end goal and ruthless destruction of Gaza by Israeli forces can only be understood by looking at the need for PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s far right coalition government to save its face and placate the domestic unrest after the 7 October incident. In this context, all the signs are pointing towards an unsettling prospect—the potential realisation of a second Nakba as a conceivable end goal for Israel in this protracted conflict. If not Nakba, at the very least, overall security responsibility of Gaza.
The perilous state of the Likud coalition government in Israel was obvious well before the 7 October attack by Hamas. Critics of the government contended that Netanyahu’s administration neglected pressing issues, exemplified by an understaffed police force and a military caught off guard on Israel’s southern flank bordering Gaza due to a disproportionate concentration of forces in the occupied West Bank.
In the aftermath of 7 October attack; the public support for PM Netanyahu’s government plummeted further. According to a recent poll by Lazarus Institute for a newspaper in Israel, a paltry 27 percent of the population supports the coalition government of PM Netanyahu. Economy Minister Nir Barkat faced confrontations and heckling from frustrated family members at Sheba Medical Centre, who questioned the government’s actions. Similar sentiments were expressed during the funeral of the son of former Economy Minister Izhar Shai, with accusations that the government’s actions facilitated Hamas. Environment Minister Idit Silman was forced to leave a hospital as residents accused the government of ruining the country. The public’s anger show prevalent discontent and blame directed at officials for the deterioration of the situation in Israel.
Moreover, the effect of public unrest on the Israeli invasion of Gaza cannot be overstated. PM Netanyahu’s political capital hinges on his ability to give a vigorous response to Hamas and is vital in garnering support to consolidate his position domestically. It seems that PM Netanyahu is borrowing from handbook of his fellow strongmen in world politics such as PM Narendra Modi to appease domestic populace through unfettered jingoism and keep his party in power.
As there have been no public announcements regarding Israel’s end goal in the war, the only way to discern the situation is the statements of public official on ground invasion of Gaza. Many Israeli ministers came out with statements after 7 October that were telling of the Israel’s response which resulted in the massive destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure and lives. It was also indicative of what the Israeli policy makers sought to do in Gaza. Soon after the Hamas attack, Israel’s Defence Minister on 9 October said “There will no longer be electricity, food, water, or fuel, everything will be closed. We are fighting against animals and we are acting accordingly”.
Similarly, Israeli Finance Minister presented the voluntary migration of Palestinians from Gaza as the only long lasting solution. He said, he supports the voluntary migration and “this is the right humanitarian solution for the residents of Gaza and the entire region. A cell with a small area like the Gaza Strip without natural resources and independent sources of livelihood has no chance to exist independently, economically and politically in such a high density for a long time”
Furthermore, in a recent article, Israel’s Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel wrote, “Instead of funnelling money to rebuild Gaza or to the failed UNRWA, the international community can assist in the costs of resettlement, helping the people of Gaza build new lives in their new host countries” and presented it as the only solution to the Gaza problem. Furthermore, PM Netanyahu has indicated that Israel will assume the security responsibility of Gaza at the end of the war”.
As Israeli forces continue to push their forces towards the southern parts of Gaza, pushing people towards the Egyptian border, it is plausible to assume that the second Nakba is on the card. Otherwise, an ongoing extermination in Gaza does not make either the strategic sense or military sense even for Israel. If that is too extreme or the US intervenes to stop it, at the very least, the security responsibility of Gaza will be actively assumed by IDF after the war.
In conclusion, the analysis of the Israel-Hamas conflict suggests that the coalition Likud government’s far-right nature, coupled with its numerous statements, unveils a potentially alarming endgame and it seems to be to kill two birds with one stone; to occupy Gaza whilst achieving popularity at home.
—The writer is a researcher at Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, Pakistan.
Email: [email protected]
views expressed are writer’s own.
