Just days after the Pahalgam massacre that killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, India sealed a $7.4 billion deal with France for 26 Rafale-M naval fighter jets.
That agreement, signed on April 28, 2025, came not as a deterrent but as a green light.
Within days, India launched sweeping air, missile, and drone strikes—not only across the Line of Control but deep into Pakistani Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
This marked a shift from symbolic deterrence to open escalation, seemingly emboldened by the confidence of fresh arms acquisitions and Western political cover.
South Asia has long stood on a knife-edge, but today its vulnerability has sharpened.
India’s geopolitical ambitions, combined with its upper-riparian control over key Himalayan rivers, create constant friction with Pakistan, a downstream state acutely sensitive to water flows.
The looming threat of climate change is rapidly turning this tension into a potential flashpoint.
Melting glaciers, erratic monsoons, and vanishing aquifers now merge with strategic anxieties.
As India builds dams and military infra-structure in disputed territories, including Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, the Himalayas are becoming militarized zones—with environmental costs and geopolitical risks converging dangerously.
India’s strategic assertiveness is now bolstered not only by French jets but by growing defence ties with the United States.
Washington has been pushing to clinch deals involving F-18 Super Hornets, MQ-9B armed drones, and advanced surveillance systems.
These sales are often framed as Indo- Pacific cooperation or a hedge against Chinese assertiveness.
But in the immediate South Asian context, they are fuelling a power imbalance that incentivizes unilateral military action.
India already operates 36 Rafale fighter jets from a 2016 deal, and its appetite for high-end Western weaponry is growing.
For Western arms industries, India is a lucrative market.
For Western governments, it is a key partner in countering Beijing.
But this convergence of economic and strategic interests is proving dangerously blind to regional consequences.
Pakistan defence officials claim to have downed 77 Indian drones and have hinted at the nuclear dimension—a familiar but no less frightening tactic.
Pakistan launched drone and missile strikes on Indian airbases in Srinagar, Awantipora, and Udhampur, causing "limited damage," according to Indian officials.
Several threats were reportedly intercepted.
Pakistan also claimed to have hit India’s S-400 air defense systems, a claim New Delhi denied amid escalating cross-border hostilities.
While some of this may be posturing, the reality is that both nations now operate in a climate of diminished restraint and increased mistrust.
The West, particularly France and the U.S., may believe they are arming a partner or balancing a rival.
In practice, they are removing the speed bumps on South Asia’s road to escalation.
The Rafale deal, signed at a moment demanding diplomacy, instead signalled escalation.U.S.sales in the pipeline risk deepening this spiral.
South Asia doesn’t just need stability—it needs de-escalation.
But with arms pouring in and political tempera-tures rising, what the region is getting instead is a reckless race to the brink.
—The writer is a political analyst, based in Islamabad.([email protected])
