ONCE a paradigm of agrarian self-sufficiency, Pakistan now teeters on the brink of agricultural disintegration.
Over the past three decades, the country’s physical and economic landscape has undergone a profound transformation—driven by the unchecked proliferation of speculative urban settlements.
Under the guise of accommodating demographic growth and fostering urban development, vast stretches of fertile land in peri-urban belts around Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot and Faisalabad have been overtaken by concrete sprawl.
This unregulated expansion has caused irreversible ecological degradation and drastically reduced food production capacity, thereby imperiling national strategic autonomy and long-term food sovereignty.
Between 2022 and 2025, Pakistan’s agricultural import bill averaged an unsustainable USD 10 billion annually, covering staples like wheat, pulses, sugar, edible oil, vegetables and fruits—once abundantly grown and exported.
This heavy reliance on external markets signals not just structural inefficiencies but a deeper surrender of food sovereignty, exposing the nation to global supply chain shocks.
The crisis stems from cumulative policy failures, institutional inertia and elite-driven development priorities.
Weak zoning laws have allowed speculative real estate to overrun fertile land, while short-term economic interests have consistently trumped long-term ecological sustainability—leaving a once self-sufficient country reliant on imports for survival.
Exacerbating this situation is Pakistan’s deepening water stress.
With per capita water availability now below 900 cubic meters, the country ranks among the most water-scarce in the world.
Yet water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice continue to be cultivated in ecologically unsuitable regions, while elite residential developments divert critical water resources for recreational use.
This systemic misallocation of natural capital reveals a policy regime that is environmentally unsound and strategically myopic.
Pakistan’s agricultural productivity lags behind regional standards.
Wheat yields average 2.9 tons per hectare, lower than India’s 3.5 and China’s 5.4, while rice yields stand at 3.6 tons, compared to China’s 6.9.
Sugarcane productivity is also far behind China’s 85 tons per hectare, at just 50.
These gaps reflect inefficiencies in farming practices, underinvestment in R&D, poor extension services and post-harvest losses up to 40%.
The agricultural governance framework suffers from inconsistency, elite capture and short-term policies, leading to mismanaged exports, re-imported goods at higher prices and imports even during surpluses—enriching cartels and inflating costs.
Volatile trade policy has inflicted additional damage.
The ad-hoc imposition and withdrawal of export bans during the crop cycle have eroded confidence among exporters and impeded the formation of stable trade relationships.
Pakistan’s agro-export portfolio remains narrowly focused on low-margin raw commodities, such as citrus, mangoes and non-parboiled rice.
The absence of targeted support for high-value, climate-resilient, or certified organic products has left the country lagging in competitive global agri-food markets.
Climate inaction further deepens the crisis.
Despite increasing exposure to extreme weather events—droughts, floods and heatwaves—there is negligible institutional support for adaptive measures such as drought-resistant crops, short-duration seed varieties, or precision irrigation techniques.
As climatic volatility intensifies, the absence of systemic adaptation strategies leaves rural livelihoods acutely exposed.
At the operational level, bureaucratic inefficiencies significantly impede export performance.
Exporters face prolonged delays in rebate disbursements, arbitrary customs regulations and cumbersome administrative procedures.
Concurrently, smallholder farmers—who constitute over 60% of the farming population—remain excluded from minimum support price protections, formal credit systems and digital market linkages.
This marginalization reinforces rural poverty and accelerates distress-induced migration to urban peripheries.
Pakistan’s technological lag is equally concerning.
Outdated farming methods—broadcast seeding, flood irrigation and manual harvesting—persist due to limited mechanization and farmer education.
The widespread use of uncertified, low-germination seeds depresses yields and exacerbates climate vulnerability.
Fertilizer application is typically imbalanced, with excessive reliance on urea and chronic neglect of essential micronutrients such as zinc and boron, leading to soil fatigue and diminished fertility.
The continued use of flood irrigation contributes to salinity, waterlogging and the depletion of already scarce water resources.
Pakistan’s agricultural policy remains skewed toward subsidy-heavy crops like wheat, rice and sugarcane, discouraging the growth of higher-value, drought-resilient alternatives such as pulses, oilseeds and vegetables—especially in semi-arid regions.
This monoculture weakens ecological stability and reinforces reliance on agro-imports.
Reversing this trend requires a policy overhaul that safeguards agricultural zones, redefines green belts as national assets and redirects urban growth to non-arable land through effective zoning and planning.
Modernization efforts must include precision farming, climate-resilient seeds and efficient irrigation.
Strengthening support prices, eliminating exploitative intermediaries and encouraging digitally connected farmer cooperatives will be crucial to restoring productivity and resilience.
Concurrently, Pakistan’s agro-export strategy must shift towards high-value, processed and climate-smart commodities.
This transition necessitates robust investment in agro-processing infrastructure, certification mechanisms, trade facilitation and digital traceability systems.
Institutional streamlining—through regulatory simplification, digitization and the elimination of rent-seeking practices—will be vital to restoring exporter confidence and unlocking the sector’s latent potential.
The urgency of reform is underscored by deteriorating food security metrics.
According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), over 11.8 million Pakistanis face acute food insecurity, while approximately 21% of the population suffers from chronic undernourishment.
Child malnutrition remains endemic, with nearly one in three children under five exhibiting stunted growth—an indictment not merely of policy failure but of sustained systemic neglect.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s agricultural crisis has transcended the realm of economic mismanagement and entered the domain of national survival.
Unless the state urgently pivots toward an agro-centric development model—anchored in ecological sustainability, technological innovation and equitable resource distribution—it risks transforming into a food-insecure nation atop land that once fed empires.
The call for reform is no longer aspirational; it is existential.
—The writer is Secretary General Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry.(tmalahore@gmail.com)
