PAKISTAN’S egg industry, which depends heavily on seasonal weather patterns for both production and consumption, is experiencing unprecedented disruption due to a prolonged dry spell that began in October 2024.
This shift in climate is deeply affecting the production cycle and consumer market for eggs, leading to noticeable economic repercussions across the poultry sector.
The current winter season is witnessing below-average rainfall, primarily attributed to the return of El Niño, a climate phenomenon caused by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. As a result, the egg market is showing a sharp decline in prices. This four-month-long dry spell has disrupted seasonal demand cycles, leaving traders and farmers uncertain about the future.
Egg consumption in Pakistan is traditionally influenced by cooler weather, as people believe eggs are “hot” in nature and consume them more in winter to balance body temperature. However, this belief is cultural rather than scientific. With persistently high mercury levels, traders who stored cheaper eggs in anticipation of higher demand during the cold season are now suffering heavy financial losses.
Per capita egg consumption in Pakistan is currently estimated between 55 to 60 eggs annually, far lower than the 250 to 300 eggs recommended for optimal health by the Pakistan Poultry Association. The low figures reflect broader sectoral challenges such as rising temperatures, high production costs and reduced consumer purchasing power. The World Health Organization, however, does not provide a universal recommendation for egg intake.
The egg industry employs about 1.5 million people across the country. In Rawalpindi and Islamabad alone, an estimated 52,500 people are engaged in farming, distribution, retail and related work. The combined economic contribution of the egg industry in these twin cities last year was around Rs. 7.84 billion, based on their 3.5% share of the population and an average egg price of Rs. 20.
Demand for eggs is often boosted by seasonal vendors selling hot soups and broths, popular winter foods that rely heavily on poultry products. Yet, many of these stalls have shut down due to the extended dry spell, facing financial strain and contributing to inflation. The steep decline in egg sales has worsened the price drop, with ripple effects also hitting restaurants and food services that depend on eggs for winter delicacies. The shifting weather patterns have disrupted the usual rhythm of consumption, leaving sellers with unsold stock and forcing prices well below expected seasonal levels. The resulting surplus has widened the supply-demand gap, with eggs losing market value as they spoil. This trend not only impacts farmers and traders but also undermines consumer food habits and economic capacity to purchase in bulk.
If current weather conditions persist, egg prices may fall further, making it difficult for producers to recover costs. Analysts warn that ongoing dry conditions could lead to additional price declines in the coming days. Coupled with economic hardships, many consumers remain unwilling to buy eggs in larger quantities, even at reduced prices, deepening the crisis.
To stabilize the industry, government intervention and forward-looking strategies are urgently needed. Implementing weather forecasts and early warning systems could help producers plan production and marketing more effectively. With better insight into seasonal variations, egg farmers and traders can minimize losses, adapt to climate challenges and ensure long-term sustainability of the sector.
—The writer is a climate communication analyst based in Islamabad.
