Introduction: The 21st century has ushered in unprecedented challenges for global agriculture, with climate change emerging as a critical threat.
Humanity now consumes natural resources 1.75 times faster than Earth’s ecosystems can regenerate, pushing planetary boundaries and jeopardizing food security for nearly 9 billion people.
By 2050, global demands for water, energy, and food are projected to surge by 55%, 80%, and 60%, respectively.
Pakistan, particularly its agricultural heartland in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), faces escalating risks from climate extremes, threatening rural livelihoods, food systems, and economic stability.
Rising temperatures and shorter growing seasons: (i) KP’s temperature trends: Average temperatures in KP have risen by 1.5°C since 1960, with heatwaves intensifying during critical crop-growing periods. (ii) Crop impacts: Wheat and maize yields decline by 15–20% under heat stress due to accelerated maturation and reduced grain filling. (iii) Cycle disruption: Traditional planting calendars are becoming obsolete, creating mismatches between crop stages and optimal climatic conditions.
Erratic rainfall and extreme weather: (i) Monsoon volatility: The 2022 monsoon displaced 33 million Pakistanis, caused 1,700 deaths, and inflicted USD 15 billion in damages. (ii) Flash floods: Swat and Dir districts lost 40% of maize crops to landslides in 2022. (iii) Droughts: Southern KP’s rainfall deficit reached 30% in 2023, crippling irrigation-dependent farms. Water scarcity and soil degradation: (i) Groundwater depletion: Punjab and KP’s aquifers are declining by 1–2 meters annually. (ii) Soil salinization: Over 6 million hectares of arable land in Pakistan are salt-affected, reducing wheat yields by 50%.
Pests, diseases, and declining yields: (i) Wheat rust: KP’s wheat crops suffer 25–30% losses annually due to fungal outbreaks exacerbated by warmer winters. (ii) Livestock stress: Heatwaves reduce milk production by 10–15%, threatening KP’s dairy-dependent households.
KP’s diverse geography amplifies its climate risks: • Northern Highlands: Glacial retreat and GLOFs endanger 2 million people downstream. • Peshawar Valley: Heatwaves (≥45°C) and groundwater depletion disrupt wheat-maize rotations. • Southern Arid Zones: Prolonged droughts in D.I.Khan and Tank threaten rainfed sorghum and millet.
Socioeconomic toll: Smallholder farmers, comprising 80% of KP’s agricultural workforce, face rising debt and crop failures. Urban centers like Peshawar report 20% higher heat-related hospitalizations during summer months.
Climate-resilient crop development: (i) Heat-Tolerant Varieties: Cultivation of heat-tolerant and drought-resistant wheat, maize, and rice varieties. (ii) Drought-Resistant Crops: Promotion of pearl millet (bajra) and sorghum in water-scarce regions. (iii) Global Partnerships: Collaboration with CIMMYT and ICRISAT to introduce bio-fortified maize hybrids. Sustainable resource management: (i) Precision irrigation: Promotion of drip and sprinkler irrigation systems to reduce water use by 35% and boost yields. (ii) Agroforestry: Planting sheesham and poplar trees in eroded areas to improve soil fertility and carbon sequestration.
Policy and community action: (i) Early Warning Systems: Enhance early warning systems to better support the farming community in KP province in mitigating the impacts of climate change. (ii) Farmer Training: Launch a comprehensive training and awareness campaign to promote organic pest control and seed preservation.
Immediate priorities: • Scale-Up Climate Finance: Allocate 1.5% of GDP to adaptive agriculture and water infrastructure. • Strengthen Research: Establish a Provincial Climate Innovation Hub for crop resilience R&D. • Empower Farmers: Provide subsidies for solar-powered irrigation and weather-indexed crop insurance.
Long-term vision: • Integrate climate-smart practices into Pakistan’s National Adaptation Plan. • Foster cross-border knowledge exchange with India and Afghanistan on drought management.
Conclusion: Without urgent action, climate change could slash Pakistan’s agricultural GDP by 20% by 2050, pushing millions into poverty. KP’s farmers, scientists, and policymakers must unite to transform challenges into opportunities. By prioritizing resilience, Pakistan can safeguard its food systems and secure a sustainable future.
—The writer is PhD, Post-Doc, Deputy Director Climate Change Centre, the University of Agriculture Peshawar – Pakistan.
(haroonkhan@aup.edu.pk)
