ISLAMABAD – Like the previous month, below-normal rains and above-normal temperatures are likely in Pakistan in May 2025.
Rainfall across the country remained below normal during April. Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and parts of northern Punjab experienced two to three light-intensity rainfall spells.
In contrast, Sindh, Balochistan, and most areas of Punjab remained largely dry, which further exacerbated the ongoing soil moisture deficit. Additionally, temperatures across the country were recorded above normal.
According to the synoptic situation, the prevailing neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to persist, alongside a neutral phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Monthly Rain Outlook: Under these conditions, slightly below-normal rainfall is anticipated in northern Punjab, Kashmir and the adjoining areas of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during May 2025. In contrast, the southern regions of the country and eastern parts of Gilgit-Baltistan are expected to experience rainfall that is closer to normal.
Monthly Temperature Outlook: Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departures over Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Impacts: Near-normal to below-normal rainfall and high temperatures in southern parts may enhance soil moisture stress in areas that are already experiencing drought conditions. Slightly below-normal rainfall in the upper parts of the country is likely to reduce water availability for agriculture in rain-fed areas.
Spatial temperature gradient may cause strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms, which may affect the seasonal crops, vegetables and orchards. The atmospheric conditions are supportive of the likelihood of heat wave development, especially over the plain areas of the southern half of the country.
Anticipated higher temperatures in high-altitude regions are expected to accelerate snowmelt in the Northern Areas, offering opportunities for irrigation and power generation. Above-normal temperatures over Gilgit-Baltistan will cause snow melt that may contribute to glacier-related hazards such as GLOF.
