THE security challenges facing the state and society of Pakistan can largely be attributed to the geopolitical location of Pakistan, its ideological basis and nuclear nature of the state. Indeed, Pakistan ideally fits into the Pivot State concept which is based on the Heartland Theory of Sir Halford John Mackinder. There are two opposing dimensions of the geopolitically pivotal state of Pakistan: (a) owing to its pivotal geopolitical positioning, the state of Pakistan has been bestowed with countless blessings of Almighty, (b) is remaining aloof and underutilization of the geopolitical location of Pakistan turned this blessing into a curse. Over the past seventy-six years, Pakistan could not really exploit its geopolitics for its own benefit. Thus its strategic location has been used to the disadvantage of Pakistan and for the strategic advantages of others, especially the major powers. Whether it was the era of Cold War, culminated with the disintegration of the (former) Soviet Union or the 21st Century global war against terror, the power play in the region has been against the national and strategic interests of Pakistan. Even today, the state suffers from a security perspective because of its geopolitics coupled with many other factors.
After Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in mid-August 2021, unexpectedly, western borders of Pakistan became more unsafe and insecure. This happened despite the fact that during the war against terrorism, Pakistan suffered human losses of over 85,000 humans and more than $149 billion on account of economic losses. The contemporary security challenges facing Pakistan is an extension of its past security dilemmas, predicaments and causative features. The Global War against terrorism was a well-planned strategic offensive that was indirectly launched to target the Pakistani State, its society and security institutions. The desired end result of these strategic planners was to convert Pakistan into a state similar to Iraq, Libya and Syria. This strategic planning was reversed and defeated by the bold and professional defence forces of Pakistan with the help of its masses. This setback and demeaning blow to the well-planned events was never anticipated by the architects of this strategy.
Failing to attain their strategic objectives, the rival powers are all set to activate the elements within Pakistan and elsewhere that can trigger conflicts based on; political, ethnic, sectarian, provincial and sub-national bases. Domestically, there are many political forces (religio-political and ethno-political) which can act as an instrument for the foreign spying networks in a bid to achieve their political mileage against emerging post-election-2024 political scenario. The worst form of security challenge is a well-orchestrated defamation campaign against the military institution. Through hybrid warfare, a defamation campaign was launched against the military. The process is geared up after the conduct of general election-2024. The external security challenges include the evolving situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban Government has proved unfriendly towards Pakistan by provoking the TTP and other militant outfits to carry out terrorist attacks against Pakistan.
On its part, Pakistan facilitated the peace agreement signed between the US and the Taliban on February 29, 2020. There have been constant terrorist attacks on Pakistani military posts by the TTP and many other militant groups since 2021. Under the patronage of the Afghan Taliban Government, TTP is demanding concessions which are tantamount to compromise on national integration and sovereignty of Pakistan. Earlier from 2004 to 2020, there has been repeated usage of Afghan soil against Pakistan where the RAW and NDS caused irreparable loss to Pakistan from the perspective of human casualties and economic losses. It seems that the process of this nexus is still continuing in a covert form with the change of new faces at Kabul. Indeed, Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan may have many other objectives of international powers with severe implications for Pakistan.
The unsettled dispute of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJ&K) is another constant security challenge for Pakistan. After the illegal and unilateral annexation of IIOJ&K in August 2019 as union territories, the situation in the occupied state has further deteriorated. There are massive human rights violations and demographic changes made by occupying Indian forces in IIOJ&K. In the absence of any worthwhile efforts for reversal of Indian action of August 2019, India has geared up its brutal actions against innocent Kashmiris while simultaneously making massive demographic changes in IIOJK.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a constant target of India and its western allies. Due to the failure to raise any legal query against this gigantic economic project, rival spying agencies of hostile countries have been attacking engineers and labourers working at various sites of CPEC in the past. Otherwise there has been slow progress on the project from 2018 to 2023. There is a need to clearly perceive the project and implement it in its initially planned form and format. Besides, Pakistan must secure its strategic and economic interests from the project, keeping in view the national interests of the state rather than a few families and individuals.
The biggest question is, with a unique geopolitics, resilient masses and numerous unexplored natural resources, why Pakistan is economically weak, socially fragmented, politically unstable and diplomatically isolated. In fact, there are serious leadership crisis coupled with bad governance, which has worked against the national interests of Pakistan for decades. The security challenges facing Pakistan today are more serious than ever before and need an in-depth analysis with a positive approach. In this regard, the political forces and institutions of the state must side together to deliberate upon and formulate a comprehensive national strategy. This well thought-out strategy should be severe as a way-out for tackling the emerging security challenges, social unrest, political instability, economic down-fall and issues of foreign policy. Upon development of consensus, there should be strict implementation of this strategy with optimism and within the constitutional domains of each stakeholder.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
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views expressed are writer’s own.
