Prof Abdul Shakoor Shah
9/11 and the US aggression in Afghanistan affected the geopolitical dynamics of the region. Certainly the departure of the US will also evolve the scenario. Afghanistan herself and its neighboring countries will surely get its aftershocks. Neighboring countries have been tightening their muscles during the America-Taliban War to get their geopolitical and strategic hold in the country, but certain counter forces let none to get overhand. The USSR, China, Iran, India, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are the major undertakers in the arena. After the US decamping Afghanistan, the US-Pak relations will turn increasingly transactional. The US-Indian strategic ties to counter China will result in misalignment of the US interests in Pakistan and will surely lose her grip on Afghan affair. To hew out some solution of Afghanistan excluding Pakistan was not possible for the US otherwise the US might have done it without Pakistan. Indian influence in Afghanistan is not much more than conspiracies against Pakistan and destabilizing Afghanistan for fulfilling her dream of Asian domination. It was crystal clear from the day first that the US has not invaded to stay here but her interests undersurface were unlike. Provoking India against China will worsen the situation in Asia.
The US is not much concerned about South Asia as she is not having any immediate threat from the region. The US is just dividing China’s attention to different borders by engaging China with India and announcing weapons for Taiwan. One of the US strategies possibly would be to engage China on different fronts and China-Indian skirmishes are the curtain raisers. The main part of the power war is being fought on economical and tech fronts. The core issue of Kashmir will linger on without any unusual change. It is wise to join hands with neighbors rather than a far away ally who even cannot reach in the need of the hour.
CPEC has ushered a new era in the region. It is being called the Asian Trojan Horse. A stable Afghanistan is in favor of all the Central Asian Republics. India cannot play her part in the Afghan affair as she is not in the good books of her neighboring countries by dint of her aggressive attitude toward them. India has always been trying to munch on the neighbors geopolitically and socio-economically. The crown of kingmakers will be in the hands of Pakistan after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US departure will engender a security vacuum for the region, even the USSR and China will be negatively affected.
In Case of Iran and Saudia ties with Pakistan, Pakistan has always tried to keep balance but bending toward Riyadh has been stronger than Tehran. The US will watch out the risk of nuclear proliferation from India to other non nuclear states which may cause the US interests. The tension over Kashmir between two nuclear powers of Asia will be intensified after the US decamping from Afghanistan as it has been accelerated by abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A. The US offer of meditation over the Kashmir issue was not a purely friendly one but it was a part of smoothing the US Taliban negotiation for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan which has proved a graveyard for the US and her allies. The US departure is also Mr. Trumps’ political stunt for winning forthcoming presidential elections. The water war will be the future tussle between India and Pakistan as Indian construction of reservoirs in the territory.
Internal dynamics of both the countries will compel Mr. Khan and Modi to show reluctance for launching channels of rapprochement. The security issue will rise up for all neighboring countries particularly for Pakistan for being the major factor in Afghanistan affairs. Pakistan has already paid a high price for being a major ally in the War against Terror. In return the US has put certain hurdles for Pakistan demanding “do more” which was wholly in the US interest rather than Pakistan. The sweet partners are stepping ahead in their best interests, by facilitating the US for withdrawal and Pakistan for economical uplift and military aid. The US is not getting rid of Afghanistan on a win-win position. She has used her influence in FATF and IMF loans too. But after American departure the US-Pak relations will take a different turn as we have previous experience of the US-Pak relations during the US interests and after it. It is the need of the hour to look for some other alternative which will be in the best interests of the country. Even after the US departs, she will move with Pakistan on interest bases rather than rewarding us by dint of an ally on War against Terror. The US policy of using economic pressure on Islamabad has lost its vitality now. The US-Pak bilateral trade and Pak-China bilateral trade are the solid evidence. The US show in the region also looks grim after relinquishing Afghanistan as Pakistan is no more the US dependent regarding economic resort and military programs.
There is a dire need for a new bloc in South Asia revolving around mutually shared interests of major giants of the region namely Pakistan, China, Iran and the USSR. India will no more be a part of the new block as she is on confrontation policy against her neighboring countries. It was once upon a time story when India and the USSR were having good ties. It is in the best interest of all the major countries neighbouring Afghanistan to come forward for a new bloc in South Asia for a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. It will eradicate the future anticipated security issues in the region. The internal and external religious factors having interlinks with Afghanistan may give the situation a new twist after the US quits. There will be less India-China confrontation after the US departure. India seems unaware of the saying “ It is folly to live in Rome and strive with the pope.” After the US relinquishing new geopolitical, social-economic and strategic ties will take place in the region.
—The writer is Prof in English and freelance columnist, based in Lahore.
