BANGLADESH–Pakistan rapprochement in the aftermath of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation in August 2024 has triggered a significant realignment in South Asian geopolitics.
Under the interim leadership of Nobel laureate, Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh has initiated a détente in its historically strained relations with Pakistan.
This shift challenges India’s longstanding regional influence and intersects with evolving US policies in the Indo-Pacific under President Donald Trump.
The departure of Hasina, a leader known for her pro-India stance, has opened avenues for Dhaka and Islamabad to address longstanding grievances and explore collaborative opportunities.
High-level meetings between Yunus and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have signaled a mutual desire to enhance bilateral cooperation, particularly in trade, cultural exchanges and people-to-people contacts.
In November 2024, a Pakistani cargo ship docked at Bangladesh’s Chittagong Port for the first time in decades, symbolizing a tangible step toward economic engagement.
Despite these positive developments, historical issues remain.
Bangladesh continues to seek a formal apology and compensation from Pakistan for the atrocities committed during the 1971 war of independence.
Pakistan has expressed regret over the past.
Nevertheless, both nations have shown a willingness to move forward, focusing on mutual interests and regional stability.
However, Pakistan’s recently shifting focus on a geo-economic paradigm from a more security-centric paradigm showcases its willingness to put the past behind and move forward with increasing positive engagements across the board.
Pakistan has also stepped up its diplomatic ties with Afghanistan and vows to improve bilateral cooperation – a move that may have the potential to address Pakistan’s security and terrorism quagmire to some degree.
While relations have seen a significant boost post-2024, it is important to contextualize the past to understand the present trajectory.
Between 2010 and 2015, during the leadership of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh and Asif Ali Zardari and later Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, there was limited yet notable economic engagement.
In 2012, bilateral trade soared between the two nations.
Pakistan exported textiles, cement and pharmaceuticals, while Bangladesh exported jute and garments.
Both countries operated within the South Asian Free Trade Area Framework, which allowed some economic exchange even amid political tensions.
Diving into the past, cultural collaborations occurred sporadically during the 2000s and 2010s through music, literature and television, particularly under the SAARC cultural programs.
These informal channels helped maintain soft diplomatic ties when formal relations were cold.
Both nations continued participating in SAARC until regional tensions froze its activities post-2016.
Bangladesh boycotted the 2016 SAARC Summit in Islamabad in alignment with India following the Uri attacks, which effectively paused regional multilateralism.
Diplomatic engagement between the two countries saw a notable moment in 2012 when then Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar visited Dhaka to initiate bilateral dialogue.
However, relations deteriorated again in 2013 after Pakistan criticized Bangladesh’s execution of 1971 war criminals, reigniting historical wounds and creating a fresh diplomatic rift.
Overall, despite these moments of contact, relations remained largely stagnant under Hasina’s tenure, primarily due to unresolved historical grievances and Dhaka’s strategic alignment with New Delhi.
India, which had maintained close ties with Hasina’s Administration, finds itself in a complex diplomatic position following her ouster.
New Delhi’s decision to provide refuge to Hasina and its subsequent suspension of key trade logistics and visa services with Bangladesh have strained relations.
The interim Bangladeshi government’s request for Hasina’s extradition further complicates the situation, highlighting a shift in Dhaka’s foreign policy priorities.
India’s regional strategy, particularly its ‘Act East Policy’ aimed at strengthening ties with Southeast Asian nations, faces new challenges as Bangladesh diversifies its diplomatic engagements.
The warming of Bangladesh–Pakistan relations, coupled with Dhaka’s outreach to other regional players, suggests a move away from India’s sphere of influence, potentially reshaping the balance of power in South Asia.
The United States, under President Trump’s renewed administration, has adopted a more transactional approach to foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region.
Recent joint military exercises with the Philippines and demands for increased defence cost-sharing from allies like Japan and South Korea reflect a focus on burden-sharing and strategic realignment.
While these policies aim to counter China’s influence, they also introduce uncertainties in traditional alliances and regional dynamics.
In this context, Bangladesh’s evolving foreign policy presents both opportunities and challenges for US interests.
As Dhaka strengthens ties with Pakistan and potentially other regional actors, the US may need to reassess its engagement strategies to maintain influence and promote stability in the region.
The post-Hasina era in Bangladesh marks a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics.
The rapprochement between Bangladesh and Pakistan challenges India’s traditional regional dominance and intersects with the United States’ recalibrated Indo-Pacific strategy under President Trump.
As these dynamics continue to evolve, the region stands at a crossroads, with the potential for both increased cooperation and heightened competition among key players.
—The writer is Policy Coordinator at the Press Information Department, Islamabad.([email protected])
