TARBELA is empty. Mangla is at dead level. Such headlines dominated news this winter, pointing toward a harsh reality: climate change has disrupted rainfall patterns, inducing water scarcity during the crucial Kharif season.
For several years now, dry winters have been followed by rainy springs—an alarming shift for Pakistan’s agriculture.
Snowfall during winter is vital, replenishing the northern mountains’ “water batteries” that sustain the Indus system year-round.
With delayed winter rains, snow reserves diminish, leading to reduced and unreliable river flows.
This change is emerging as a major threat to crop production and national food security.
While we often discuss dwindling river flows and empty dams, we rarely address the more subtle but damaging climate-induced conditions undermining our agricultural output.
Take wheat, Pakistan’s most critical cereal crop.
In March, as wheat enters the flowering stage, abrupt shifts in temperature or humidity can cause significant yield loss.
Unseasonal spring rains affect this stage by increasing humidity and triggering diseases like rust, which not only damage the crop but also necessitate excessive pesticide use—harming pollinators vital for productivity.
Pollination is highly sensitive to climate shifts, pesticide exposure and erratic rainfall.
Climate change has increased hailstorm frequency, putting pollinators like bees at great risk.
This challenge extends beyond wheat.
Orchards—especially plum and apricot—are suffering from similar disturbances.
In Swat, Malakand and Mardan, premature flower drops, fungal infections and declining pollinators have led to sharp production cuts.
Though apricots are hardier, their yield has significantly dropped over the past three years.
Climate change is slowly eroding the region’s reputation as a top producer of these fruits.
These erratic conditions don’t just impact crops directly; they trigger wider ecological disruptions.
A stark example: a massive wildfire in the Sanghao mountains of Mardan drove displaced swine populations toward nearby wheat fields, including those in my hometown of Baizo Kharki Mardan—causing severe crop damage.
It’s a chain reaction: drought leads to wildfires, which then escalate into crop invasions and destruction in ways we’ve never anticipated.
Climate change, therefore, is not just about melting glaciers, water shortages or habitat loss.
It’s a multifaceted crisis affecting lives in layers we’re only beginning to understand.
Imagine a future where daytime heat renders outdoor work impossible, weather forecast apps fail due to climate unpredictability, and pesticide-resistant swarms overrun fields.
These aren’t far-fetched possibilities—they are real threats looming ever closer.
For underdeveloped, underprepared regions like ours, these changes pose an existential threat.
Recognizing the complexity and urgency of the crisis is the first step.
We need to look beyond headlines and dam levels—and prepare for the deeper, cascading impacts of a rapidly changing climate.
—The writer is Assistant Agricultural Engineer, KP Agriculture Department, Peshawar. ([email protected])
