Tariq Khalil
TIME has come to face an enemy stronger, you fear defeat, yet if you don’t fight one is bound to be destroyed, you must fight. We have an excellent example, our Prophet (PBUH) at the Battle of Badar faced Makkan forces of over 1500-2000 against his 313 followers. Prophet had two choices, give in or fight. He chose to fight and won changing history of mankind. Sun Zu also articulated the same in his famous book Art of War. Weaker you may be, if your existence is at stake. Fight back. India asked Pakistan to reduce High Commission staff blaming they are involved in anti-India activities. Diplomatic reciprocity, Pakistan has asked India to pack up its 50pc staff. It is not routine diplomatic gimmicks. As follow up, a sinister plan was hatched by RAW to attack a high level target. Our security agencies already had warned. PSX is a lucrative target. They came with full preparations to not only hold on for days but also to make Stock Exchange hostage. It would have created a very negative destabilising impact in Pakistan. RAW’s effort is thwarted by brave security guards. World and Security Council has condemned this attack as a terrorist crime. With tension is high it can’t be brushed away as ‘normal’. Nay, there are deeper motives. In April 1971, Air India, Ganga hijack drama was staged. Pakistanis are emotional people, made hijackers heroes. What happened later is history.
In Ladakh, hot and cold game is being played. China has announced scrapping all previous agreements. This is a very significant move. It amounts to eliminating whatever value LAC had. Technically, there is no demarcated border. China is now not only in effective control of territory they claim but has upped the military preparations for conventional warfare. Besides, over two hundred thousand troops, full back-up in artillery and air support is ready. That indicate next round will not be clubs. India is in dilemma. India is claiming matching force level. But India’s western and central commands were always Pakistan-centric. Technically, at that altitude the troops and equipment hurriedly assembled in not fit for such heights. Climate is important factor. Troops and equipment have to be climatized. As for China, 1993 agreement (now scrapped) never had clear LAC marked. It was decided that military experts of both sides will demarcate boundary later. It never happened. Thus both countries perceived their own claim is the boundary. More than three Corps Commander level meetings in Ladakh have been held, some stretching to over 14 hrs and without any outcome. As a matter of fact no outcome was expected. No Corps Commander will be in a position to sign any documents accepting Chinese position. Thus status quo.
Indian PM’s visit is for public consumption and at best to boost morale of Indian troops. For security reasons, he was taken to Base Headquarters only, hundred kilometres away from battle area. He gave a short speech reiterating Indian position in Ladakh without naming China. In India, debate is on between some senior Generals and think tanks with regard to Indian capability to wage two- front war, China and Pakistan. And that what are other options. Consensus is emerging that India lacks capability to engage Pakistan and China simultaneously. Even vis-a-vis China in the present situation India has no viable options. They are not in a position to throw back the Chinese. A la Chankia philosophy, they are debating, engage Pakistan in hand of friendship to gain time. It is a new mantra in Indian think tanks. It is a ruse. Professor Munnawar in his book Hindu Mentality, quoting scores of Hindu thinkers from last many hundred years, I quote, when a Hindu say yes, in actual fact it is ‘May Be’. Never underestimate India.
Meanwhile, India has upped subversive activities in Baluchistan, Sindh and KP in particular. Sabotage and cause delay in Gwadar Port development and threaten CPEC in Pakistan by activating elements from within. In this it will use all means – financial and media – to create dissension. Admiral Sinha, ex-Commander of Indian Naval Command in Arabian Sea has declared Gwadar a threat to Indian security. It must be undone. Since 1947, Indian army has never won any battle or war frontally in conventional operations including in the erstwhile East Pakistan where they could not overrun any Pakistan army fortress position. They relied on bypassing positions taking advantage, paucity of troops Pakistan faced against one to forty ratio including Mukti Bahini. Subversion and sabotage by Pakistani Bengali troops who rebelled was the key. Even today, Indian planners know this weakness of their in conventional lower spectrum engagement with Pakistan. They know they will lose. Thus from last many years every tool has been employed to weaken Pakistan from within. The centre of gravity is Pakistan Army, it is the main target. Destroy institutions, create element of depression in youth, more so pervert them. Debunk two- nation theory and corrupt the society. A couple of years back they launched hybrid war against Pakistan . Pakistan uprooted terrorism and Pakistan Army came out seasoned and battle hardy. Yet we must ponder over why government is mired in one crisis to other. Ladakh is not a mere boundary issue. It checkmates Indians expansionist designs especially after revocation of Articles 370 and 35-A. India effectively included Chinese claimed disputed territory in Indian Union, created infrastructure in Galwan Valley , along Shyok river to threaten Gilgit-Baltistan and more important CPEC. Further, to capture AJK. Kashmir, its special status, Simla Agreement is dead. The sanctity of LoC is gone. They are also trying to dump Indus Basin Treaty. The US Foreign Secretary’s statement declaring China aggressor also has upped Indian propaganda against Pakistan. Indian media is in frenzy on the movement of US Air Craft Carriers to South China Sea and linking this movement with situation in Ladakh. Whereas, the US movements are part of its global strategy to contain China.
It for this reason immense pressure is being exerted on Pakistan with regard to CPEC through diplomacy and media. In this milieu, it looks, war may be imposed on Pakistan by Modi to save his political stakes, raise the morale of troops and keep its control in the Valley. Although in an interview to NDTV, Commander 15 Corps Lt Gen BS Raju asserted he see no abnormal movement on Pakistani side except some defensive posturing. Yet this may be a ruse for Pakistan. The question is, are we ready for war? We are in economic recession especially after the outbreak of COVID-19. With our export markets equally hit, Pakistan expatriates working abroad, a large number are rendered jobless and the economy has shrunk. Further opposition parties mired in corruption cases blame government for political victimisation.
They have left no effort to destabilise the government in last eighteen months, PTI Government angling on a few votes has also internal squabbles. Unfortunately, this is happening while the enemy is knowing the door. It is time to get united and present a united Pakistan. Pakistan far long cannot remain aloof what is happening in Kashmir and Ladakh. Throughout Muslim history, even in India, Muslims fought back from position of weakness yet won. As I quoted in the beginning, it is time to take decisive stand as history never excuses weak nations. But no emotions be allowed to overtake decisions. Any amount of sacrifice will be less irrespective of our financial and other shortcomings. Let world worry with three nuclear powers are in a state of confrontation.
—The writer, a retired Brigadier, is senior columnist, based in Lahore.