Syed Qamar Afzal Rizvi
AMIDST the growing changes— we are undergone to experience from a global epidemic-imposed heath crisis to forced social isolation and the economic recession-how do we systematically try to learn from these drastic events and the related wave of information vis-à-vis the Covid 19? We now find ourselves immersed in fighting a global war against Coronavirus. The COVID-19 pandemic has now become a trans-regional crisis, with the exponential increase in number of known cases climbing daily and hundreds of millions of people in lockdown. As countries are striving to support their people and public health systems, their economies are seducing to a halt. Nevertheless, softening lockdown is only helpful after pragmatic vision.
There is an exigency of new evidence and research to improve our understanding of the economic crisis in developing countries and the appropriate policy responses. As some of the Western nations begin easing Coronavirus restrictions, many developing countries, particularly in the Middle East. Africa and South Asia want to do it too, but make no mistake, they cannot afford the luxury of any missteps. Unfortunately, they lack the fundamental tools — a sturdy economy, well-equipped hospitals and large-scale testing — that are required for finding their way out of the pandemic crisis. Pakistan, like any other developing nation, has to face the challenges in order to ease the restrictions. Horrendously, easing lockdowns could increase infections and quickly overwhelm hospitals with limited beds and breathing machines; while keeping restrictions in place risks social upheaval and more economic losses. At the same time, inadequate testing and a lack of transparency could lead to misguided decisions, said RabahArezki, chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank and a senior fellow at the Middle East Initiative. Even a spirited public debate about an exit strategy, common now in Europe, seems unthinkable in countries battered by conflict, corruption or poverty.
PM Imran Khan on May 7 chaired a meeting of top government officials where the decision was taken to relax restrictions on public and industrial activities. “We know our curve of infections and deaths (from COVID-19) is gradually rising. But the rate of increase is relatively very low in Pakistan,” Khan said in his post-meeting nationally televised remarks. In defending the decision, Khan said it is not possible for anyone to predict when and if Pakistan will experience a peak like that of Europe and other worst-hit areas. Outbreaks of such scale expose flaws and misfits in the underlying healthcare system. This could be related to the timely detection of disease, availability of basic healthcare, tracing contacts, quarantine and isolation procedures, and preparedness beyond the health sector. All of these issues are especially prominent in resource-constrained settings.
Succinctly examining, Pakistan spends 2% of its GDP on healthcare, against a global average of 10%. It also fares much worse than its neighbours, Iran and India, in terms of health-related indicators. The latest data from the World Bank, shows that in 2016 Pakistan spent around $40 per citizen on healthcare. By contrast, the comparative figure in India was $62, and Iran $415. With the growing crisis in Iran despite this higher spending on healthcare per capita, it is clear why policymakers in Pakistan are deeply concerned. It seems that Islamabad is hanging in the balance—confronting with innumerable economic, religious and cultural challenges, pondering over whether to maintain lockdown or to lift it. Every state is under obligation to follow precautionary measures to de-escalate the spread of the virus. But unfortunately, implementation of such measures in Pakistan, due to multifaceted factors, so far remains unsuccessful.
Importantly, the WHO adopted framework takes a “health first” approach, recognizing that strong and resilient health systems must be the foundation of recovery in all countries. As more and more countries consider how to ease so-called lockdown restrictions, I want to reiterate the six criteria that WHO recommends countries consider: The current Director-General is Tedros Adhanom, on My 6 did speak Today’s guidance complements the United Nations framework for the socio-economic response to COVID-19, published last week. The framework lays out a “recovery roadmap” for countries to protect lives and livelihoods, and get businesses and economies up and running again as soon as possible.
‘First, that surveillance is strong, cases are declining and transmission is controlled; Second, that health system capacities are in place to detect, isolate, test and treat every case and trace every contact; Third, that outbreak risks are minimized in special settings like health facilities and nursing homes; Fourth, that preventive measures are in place in workplaces, schools and other places where it’s essential for people to go, Fifth, that importation risks can be managed; And sixth, that communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to adjust to the “new norm”. Today, Pakistan could have hardly achieved any of the parameters highlighted by the WHO. As for the Government narrative, the Special Assistant for Health Dr Zafar Mirza said: ‘’A national effort is required through strengthened coordination between provincial and federal governments and to uniformly respond to this emergency. This is vital to achieve maximum preparedness and plan for a robust response to a potential outbreak’’. By all means, we need to follow the WHO’s parameters.
The current scenario of Pakistan is not satisfactory as Pakistan is much-populated country was required more facilitation. Pakistan is a developing country where the financial position is not better as compared to the US, UK, China and Russia to combat with COVID-19 outbreak. The number of hospitals and quarantine facilities being not fulfilled as required. If these medical facilities improved, then it will not be difficult to control the transmission of viruses and treatment of patients. Currently, the testing facilities are much lower than the required target. The testing facilities could increase by five to ten folds. The right steps should be taken to control the situation such as staying at homes, lockdown, social distancing, using sanitizer, and a face mask when necessary. Pakistan needs more screening facilities for the arrivals as well as for the departures. Therefore, the governmental move of softening lockdown must be based on restraint and pragmatic vision.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law.
