As South Asia remains a nuclear flashpoint, the need for global responsibility is becoming unavoidable.
History starkly illustrates that when psychopaths control state affairs, the consequences are catastrophic not only for the nation but humanity at large.
True, Modi’s path of escalating confrontations with Pakistan is highly alarming for South Asia.
Given Narendra Modi’s ultra-nationalist, ultra-fascist and ultra-unilateralist policies in the region, should not the South Asian citizenry be wary of the looming threat of a nuclear war?
The question is: will the Indian political leadership be prudent enough to grasp the devastating implications of a nuclear winter or will they succumb to the perils of Modi’s brinkmanship?
As a writer focusing on strategic issues and an expert in conflict and peace studies related to international law, my article aims to be an eye-opener–highlighting the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear war—for those hawkish Indian policymakers who, instead of seeking a conflict resolution with Pakistan, have been playing with fire in a nuclearized South Asia.
Ostensibly, use of nuclear weapons in the South Asian region can lead to devastating consequences—storming a nuclear winter, the most immediate effect seems to directly and indirectly hit a population of South Asia, estimated to be around 2.08 billion people, will be the victims of this disaster—coming from a radioactive fallout.
Scientifically hypothesized, widespread firestorms would release massive amounts of soot and smoke into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight and leading to a significant and prolonged global cooling.
This could cause devastating effects on agriculture, ecosystems and human survival.
Should not the hawkish Indian leaders learn several crucial lessons from the events at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, namely the catastrophic consequences of nuclear weapons, the importance of non-proliferation efforts and the enduring human cost of war?
In a recent situation, despite the risk of a nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan, the Pak military response, under an integrated command of Field Marshal Asim Munir, via Marka-e-Haq (showcasing Pak military’s superb professional skills), effectively countered India’s strategy through calculated manoeuvres, thereby averting a nuclear war in South Asia.
However, it is uncertain whether Pakistan can consistently demonstrate such restraint in future confrontations with India.
Unsurprisingly, tensions between India and Pakistan could escalate further if India disregards international law related to the disputed Jammu & Kashmir issue and the Indus Waters Treaty
Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue Shangri-La in Singapore, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) Gen Shamshad Mirza categorically warned the Indian side that any attempt to halt, divert or delay Pakistan’s rightful share of water would be considered an act of war.
The potential for escalation and the devastating consequences of nuclear conflict necessitate a cautious approach.
This includes prioritizing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions, carefully considering any actions that could be perceived as provocative and maintaining strong communication channels with all parties involved.
Recently Pakistan has sent its diplomatic delegations abroad with a mission to highlight the role of other nations with respect to “Peace with Responsibility.
” A nuclear war threat crisis in the South Asian region demands that the international community must play its role to avoid actions that could contribute to a nuclear catastrophe.
The UNSC has an ascribed crucial role in maintaining global peace and security, including preventing nuclear conflicts.
The UNSC must hold India accountable to its gross international law violations vis-à-vis Kashmir and the IWT.
The UNSC involvement can bring international attention, legitimacy and authority to efforts aimed at reducing tensions and promoting manoeuvres for the conflict resolution between the warring parties.
That said, the UNSC must pressurize India to engage its peace diplomacy with Pakistan.
We must draw lessons from other nuclear-armed regions, focusing on conflict resolution and risk mitigation strategies.
These lessons highlight the need for prioritizing peace, diplomacy, and global cooperation in the face of nuclear threats.
Ostensibly, the South Asian leadership can prudently learn from the experiences of other nuclear neighbours by prioritizing dialogue, transparency, and a commitment to deterrence stability, which are crucial for fostering a stable and peaceful environment.
Further, under the UN’s auspices, a South Asian diplomatic and political consortium should be formed which could facilitate dialogue, build trust and promote peaceful resolutions of disputes between India and Pakistan, exclusively focusing on providing a sustained dialogue on key issues, including Kashmir and the Indus Water Treaty.
The said forum should promote confidence building measures to reduce tensions and prevent miscalculations.
The UN’s involvement would lend credibility and authority to the forum’s efforts.
The gravity of the situation demands immediate and prompt actions from the international community.
Pakistan’s political and military leadership have categorically emphasized the importance of peace in South Asia but having no compromise on its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Indian National Congress and the BJP should develop a framework for peace dialogue with Pakistan underpinning the significance of the underlying issues that include the Kashmir dispute, the Indus Water Treaty, and terrorism—the main stumbling blocks in the way of peaceful coexistence between the two nuclear- armed states in South Asia.
It is high time that the two sides, India and Pakistan must jointly work to seek a sustainable resolution of those conflicts which hinder the scope of peace and stability in South Asia.
The lessons of May 10, must be taken prudently in the Indian policy quarters.
Indian leadership must realize the worth of peace in a nuclearized South Asia.
Not war, but diplomacy is the only way to resolve a conflict.
Understandably, eliminating proxy warfare and eradicating terrorism appears to be crucial for regional stability.
—The writer, based in Pakistan, an independent IR & International Law analyst, also an expert in Conflict and Peace Studies (with special focus on Palestine, Kashmir), is member of European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR), including the Washington Foreign Law Society/American Society of International Law. ([email protected])
