Dr Mehmood-ul-Hassan Khan
POST-Doha Afghanistan is still politically weak and
economically unstable/unsustainable because of
stalled peace negotiations among its different stakeholders. Unfortunately, Taliban attacks are again on the rise. Deadly and infectious COVID-19 is now spreading like a fire in the jungle in Afghanistan. Moreover, Afghanistan’s political bosses have been in search of more and more power since the signing of this historic peace deal in Doha. They are still spending their time feuding over power and the division of ministerial slots. Swap of prisons are stalemated between the US and Taliban. It was agreed in the Doha agreement that the Afghan Government would release 5,000 Taliban prisoners in return for the release of 1,000. However, now the Afghan Government seems to be reluctant toward such a release.
Due to ongoing serious national health crisis in the US, it has apparently failed to convince the Afghan government to honour its commitment. Dirty power politics is flooding everywhere in Afghanistan and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani does not want to release the prisoners because he holds only few cards to leverage Taliban negotiations. Secret meetings and negotiations between Hazara militants and Taliban may not be good omen for the Ghani regime and the US alike. Haqqani Network and Mashhad Network still pose serious security threats to Afghanistan.
Although war hysteria was dashed in Doha but still prospects of peace and harmony in Afghanistan is a far cry. Despite warmongering of 20 years, loss of more than US$ 750 billion, unlimited collateral damage, brutal killings, bomb blasts, drones, destruction, deadlocks, human miseries and political uncertainty, a historic peace agreement was signed between the US and Taliban (once projected as angles of God, propagated worse terrorists/enemies of humanity and again accepted/recognized as a necessary political entity) for achieving desirable peace and harmony in Afghanistan but phase-2 of grand internal reconciliation among different political stakeholders, feuds, factions, pressure groups, ethnic identities and last but not the least, non state actors have not yet been formalized.
After 18 months of dialogue, diplomacy and two decades of war, the Taliban and the United States signed a four page agreement aimed at paving the way for peace in Afghanistan and the departure of foreign troops. The historic peace deal titled “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” outlined a series of interrelated promises and pledges and commitments from the US and the Taliban aiming to reduce troop levels, counterterrorism and the intra-Afghan dialogue aimed at bringing about “a sustainable and inclusive ceasefire.” Furthermore, the peace agreement outlines a 14-month timetable for the withdrawal of all military forces of the United States, its allies, and Coalition partners, including all non-diplomatic civilian personnel, private security contractors, trainers, advisors and supporting services personnel. But grey areas mainly, disunity among Afghans at every level (it has two presidents/governments, disharmony on the issue of political system, constitution, and types of governance, elimination of warlords, intra-Afghan dialogue, severe ethnic division, dysfunctional government and streaming of regional factions/parties and movers & shakers) have not yet been settled.
In real political terms it was enforced because of certain political compulsions (US President Trump desires to use it as its biggest strategic victory in its second term presidential campaign), Taliban readiness of political persuasions instead of futile war, Pakistan’s determination to secure its eastern border by having peace in Afghanistan, Iran wants to act as good-boy to win some admiration from the West and last but not the least, China plans its out-reach to Central Asia through massive infrastructural development and industrialization in Afghanistan. Russia has been trying its best to resolve the issue of Afghanistan on a regional basis. In this regard, numerous regional conferences and dialogues have been arranged by Russia in the near past. Even Turkey “Heart of Asia” conference has been instrumental to resolve the burning issue of Afghanistan in the past. Moreover, the Republic of Uzbekistan has been very vocal to achieve peace and harmony in Afghanistan through regional engagements.
Unfortunately, the soil of Afghanistan has been misused by the regional main stakeholders and global movers and shakers through fatal proxies. Humanity has been at the receiving end and “War Theatre” has also been financed by various state and non-state actors in Afghanistan since 1980. 9/11 incident changed its strategic position. Afterwards, there has been unstoppable flood of drone attacks, combats, conspiracies and suicidal attacks in Afghanistan. Its regional repercussions put many countries in the line of fire, due to which Pakistan has been in the cross-firing on various fronts. Its eastern and western borders have become faulty. Thanks to defence forces of Pakistan which successfully protected the vested interests.
Fortunately, forces of convergence outplayed forces of divergence and worked jointly to reach a durable peace agreement. The government of Pakistan and its defence forces once again played a decisive role to bring Taliban on the table of dialogue and negotiations. The US Taliban and Pakistan have been three key players to end bloodshed in Afghanistan. Pakistan has now become “equalizer” in the region by undermining the role of India in Afghanistan. Taliban attacks have now again steadily increased. US and NATO airstrikes have responded to some of the Taliban attacks and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper insisted that troops withdrawal beyond the first phase is “conditional” and could be halted. But the conditions have not been spelled out in public, so America’s resolve is unclear. And the Taliban continue to attack.
Absence of promised electoral reforms to ensure a better future is still missing. Empowerment of women would be a serious issue in the future step. Secretary Pompeo has threatened to cut off $1 billion of aid. He is right to insist that Afghan leaders must find their own solution. In the meantime, the essentially selfish behaviour of Afghan leaders is doing nothing to benefit the Afghan people. Both leaders need to rethink their responsibilities to their people and their place in history. Perpetual ongoing political chaos is seriously haunting the government and establishment of Pakistan. India is fuelling the fire with its lavish funds and various conspiratorial schemes against Pakistan due to which anti Pakistan feelings are again getting momentum in Afghanistan especially in Northern Alliance region.
Axis of India and Afghanistan is now launching systematic water terrorism against Pakistan by building various dams on the banks of Kabul River which has serious repercussions for KP province and the country alike. The government and establishment of Pakistan are in the state of flux on the issue of strategic depth policy towards Afghanistan which needs to be dismantled immediately. Pakistan should seriously pursue a balanced approach towards the installed governments of Afghanistan and does not try to put all eggs in one basket. Concrete efforts should also be initiated to establish good and friendly posturing towards Northern Alliance. Matter of financial economy of Afghanistan needs to be thoroughly studied and amended in the future. Repatriation of Afghan refugees should be first and foremost policy of Pakistan.
—The writer is Director, Geopolitics/Economics Member Board of Experts, CGSS.
