ISLAMABAD – Pakistan’s exports are picking up, yet the import bill is moving even faster. In just three months, the gap between what Pakistan sells abroad and what it buys from the world has widened to $10.79 billion, putting renewed focus on the country’s foreign-exchange position.
The merchandise trade gap reached $10.79 billion during July-September 2026, compared with $9.37 billion in the same period last year, marking an increase of around 15%. September numbers showed the pressure building, with the monthly trade deficit climbing to $3.56 billion, up approximately 6% from the $3.35 billion recorded in September 2025.
Pakistan’s exports delivered a significant improvement during September, rising 17.6% year-on-year to $2.94 billion. But the export surge was overshadowed by a much larger import bill. Imports jumped to $6.49 billion in September, an increase of around 11% compared with the same month last year. The monthly trade gap also expanded by approximately 8% from August.
The first-quarter figures tell a similar story. Exports increased by around 11% to $8.42 billion, but imports climbed nearly 13% to $19.22 billion. As a result, the country earned substantially more from merchandise exports but still faced a widening gap because import demand remained stronger.
Trade deficit nearly doubles from 2024 level
Pakistan’s latest trade figures look considerably different from the position two years ago. In September 2024, exports stood at around $2.84 billion, while imports were approximately $5.13 billion, leaving a deficit of about $2.29 billion.
By September 2025, the deficit had surged to roughly $3.34–3.40 billion, representing an increase of around 46%. The deficit has now reached $3.56 billion in September 2026.
The quarterly comparison is equally striking. The trade gap increased from approximately $7.05 billion in Q1 FY2024-25 to $9.37 billion in Q1 FY2025-26, before reaching $10.79 billion in the opening quarter of FY2026-27.
| Period | Exports | Imports | Trade Deficit |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | ~$2.84bn | ~$5.13bn | ~$2.29bn |
| September 2025 | ~$2.50bn | ~$5.85bn | ~$3.34–3.40bn |
| September 2026 | $2.94bn | $6.49bn | $3.56bn |
| Q1 FY25 | ~$7.90bn | ~$14.95bn | ~$7.05bn |
| Q1 FY26 | ~$7.60bn | ~$16.97bn | $9.37bn |
| Q1 FY27 | $8.42bn | $19.22bn | $10.79bn |
Despite the widening deficit, the export numbers offer a significant positive development. After declining during the previous fiscal year, exports have returned to stronger growth in the opening months of FY2026-27.
The improvement has been supported by Pakistan’s major export industries, particularly textiles and other merchandise categories, while rice and other products could provide additional momentum if international demand remains favourable. However, maintaining the current pace will be crucial because a sustained increase in exports is needed to narrow the country’s structural trade imbalance.
The growing import bill remains the central concern. Petroleum and other energy products, machinery, industrial raw materials and consumer goods are among the categories that can push imports higher.
While the headline numbers remain significant, the pace of deterioration has moderated. September 2026 trade deficit increased by roughly 6% year-on-year, compared with a jump of around 46% in September 2025. At the quarterly level, the deficit expanded by approximately 15% in Q1 FY2026-27, against a much sharper 33% increase during Q1 FY2025-26. This means the trade gap is still expanding, but the rate of deterioration has slowed considerably compared with the previous year.
Pakistan posts record $34.75 billion trade deficit in 11 months
International energy prices could have a major influence on the trade balance in the coming months. A sustained increase in global oil prices would raise Pakistan’s import bill and potentially widen the trade deficit further. Meanwhile, a decline in energy prices could provide some relief.
Pakistan’s ability to manage the widening trade gap will also depend on external financing and continued progress under its IMF programme. IMF disbursements, bilateral financing, external borrowing and other foreign-exchange inflows can strengthen reserve buffers and help meet external obligations.
