ISLAMABAD – Pakistan is projected to require between 62,660MW and 70,720MW of additional electricity generation capacity by 2035 to support anticipated economic growth of up to 6.4%, according to the revised Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025–35.
Thereports suggested that the long-term energy roadmap has been prepared by the Independent System and Market Operator in collaboration with the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) and other stakeholders. It outlines planned expansion in both power generation and transmission infrastructure across the country, including the K-Electric system.
Based on three GDP-linked growth scenarios—low (3.52%), medium (4.95%) and high (6.37%)—the estimated capacity addition requirements stand at 62,657MW, 66,459MW and 70,720MW respectively.
Officials say the projections are driven by expected economic recovery and rising industrial demand. However, current data shows a decline in electricity consumption due to economic pressures and increased adoption of rooftop solar systems.
The plan highlights that the national load factor has declined from 70–73% to around 58–60%, indicating underutilisation of existing generation capacity. Distribution companies have also reported reduced reliance on the national grid as consumers shift towards alternative energy sources.
Despite the slowdown, planners consider the trend temporary and expect demand to recover gradually. They aim to improve system efficiency through demand management measures, targeting a load factor of around 70% by 2035.
The IGCEP also outlines a significant shift in Pakistan’s energy mix towards domestic and renewable sources. By 2035, hydropower is expected to contribute 34% of installed capacity, while solar and wind together will account for 27%.
In contrast, reliance on imported fuels is projected to decline, with furnace oil expected to be eliminated entirely, while imported coal and RLNG will contribute 7% and 13% respectively.
The plan includes major capacity additions across different technologies, including 21,400MW from hydropower, up to 13,200MW from solar, and as much as 11,500MW from wind. It also incorporates 8,224MW from RLNG, 4,730MW from nuclear energy, and smaller contributions from local coal, gas, and bagasse-based plants.
The total investment requirement for generation capacity is estimated at $46 billion to $54 billion, while transmission system upgrades will require an additional $4.6 billion to $6 billion.
The revised framework also introduces flexibility to include strategic projects under a least-cost deviation mechanism, particularly large hydropower and solar schemes, while accounting for the growing share of distributed generation. Net metering is expected to contribute around 8,120MW by 2035.
Power supply from the national grid to K-Electric is projected to increase to 3,456MW by 2035, compared to the current 2,050MW, reflecting deeper system integration needs.
The energy planners say the strategy is designed to balance baseload and renewable generation to manage variability.
However, the experts caution that the success of the plan will depend on whether actual demand aligns with projections, warning that slower growth could lead to excess capacity and higher costs for consumers.
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