Pakistan on the brink
INTERNATIONAL scholars, political analysts and historians have often referred to Pakistan as a failed state, collapsing state or weak state.
A careful analyses of the existing data on Pakistan very conclusively proves that Pakistan is neither a failed state nor a weak state but a deeply “Troubled sate” that is at grave risk due to the political and social instability, religious extremism, military adventures, and repeated dictatorships.
Renowned Indian Muslim scholar and nationalist Musalman Maulana Abul Kalam Azad predicted in 1946 “Pakistan when it comes into existence will face conflicts of religious nature.
As far as I can see people who will hold the reins of power will cause serious damage to Islam. I feel that it will not be possible for East Pakistan to remain with West Pakistan for any considerable period.
There is nothing common between the two groups except that they call themselves Muslims. After the separation of East Pakistan whenever it happens Pakistan will become a battleground of regional contradictions and disputes.
The assertion of sub national identities of Punjab, Sindh, Frontier and Baluchistan will open the door for outside interference.
It will not be long before international powers use the diverse elements of Pakistani political leadership to break the country on the lines of Balkan and Arab States.
Maybe at the stage we will ask ourselves, what have we gained and what have we lost? I feel right from its inception Pakistan will have some very serious problems”
We cannot deny the veracity of the political predictions of Maulana Azad. Pakistan today is saddled with extremely incompetent political leadership.
East Pakistan is gone, there is a heavy burden of foreign debt, there is internal unrest and regional conflicts, repeated take overs by military dictators, loot of national wealth by the neo rich, a society steeped in religious extremism and bigotry, permanent conflict with neighbouring countries and the conspiracies of international powers to control the country.
The world at large changed dramatically after the tragedy of 9/11 and Pakistan is one country that faced the impact very significantly.
Pakistan since after 9/11 has faced a decisive phase in its history in combatting the threat of terrorism, religious extremism and the instability along its borders with Afghanistan.
The obscurantist and extremist religious group called Taliban are back in the driving seat in Afghanistan and the Pakistani leadership is bending backwards to extend all possible support to the new rulers in Kabul.
This pro-Taliban policy has been adopted because the Pakistani military and political authorities claim that the US largely stopped supporting us after the cold war.
There is enough data and evidence available and today it can be safely stated religious terrorism in Pakistan is a by-product of the Pakistan’s support and training of the Afghan Mujahedeen groups during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Furthermore, this can also be attributed to the mushroom growth of religious seminaries or Deeni Madaris all over the country and the state patronage of religious jihadi groups to fight a proxy war in Kashmir.
The weakness or strength of a modern nation state is judged from the GDP growth to rule of law to human rights abuse to rights of minorities and freedom of the press.
Weak states are defined as the countries with a lack of essential capacity to fulfil four sets of essential government responsibilities.
Firstly fostering an environment conducive to sustainable and equitable economic growth. Secondly establishing and maintaining legitimate, transparent, and accountable political institutions.
Thirdly securing their population from violent conflict and keeping their territories calm and peaceful, and finally meeting the basic human needs of the citizens.
Pakistan of today is a weak state because of its political instability, denial of human rights, freedom of speech, administrative flaws, corruption, greed, despotism, religious extremism and bigotry, sectarian conflict and the use of proxies to fight wars. Police and judiciary have been politicised or are now controversial.
Terrorist organizations can operate with impunity because of the weakly governed state. Somalia, Afghanistan, Sudan and Pakistan are the countries from where Al-Qaeda has operated and is still active.
Somalia since the last ten years has been on top of the failed states list because of an ineffective govt piracy, and militant extremism.
Similarly, Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Libya, Burundi, and Congo are the countries with civil war or foreign invasion.
North Korea is a weak fragile state because of its leadership’s isolation policies and grave human rights violations.
Pakistan was at number thirty-three in 2008 and jumped to top ten fragile states in 2014 because of terrorism.
The country improved to number thirteen in 2015 yet remained a high alert state due to its political instability
.In order to prevent the horrors and stigma of a failed state the political and military leadership of the country needs to realise the vital importance of rule of law and strengthening our political institutions and developing a dynamic and sustainable economic growth.
The country has to eliminate corruption, provide timely justice, enhance employment, control the population, resolve ethnic, sectarian and religious fault lines and above all achieve the separation of religion and state.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.