FOR years, Pakistan’s soaring population growth has been evident in increasingly crowded roads, malls, schools, hospitals, parks and communities across the country. No one is serious enough to understand the reasons until now. With 250 million people and counting, Pakistan’s population is growing quickly, putting it in risk of ranking among the four most populous countries in the world. Our population has grown by 57% at an annual rate of 2.4% since 1998, with the fastest growth rate in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (including erstwhile FATA) and Balochistan. However, growth in Punjab and Sindh has slowed compared to previous results. The female population has increased by about 1% over the past 19 years. The majority of people, 53 percent, still live in Punjab, but its share in the population pie has declined.
Pakistan’s growing population density and unemployment, particularly among young people, negatively impact quality of life. Housing strain and financial strain lead to poverty, while income inequality worsens due to unequal resource allocation. Inadequate medical facilities, high illiteracy rates and overuse of resources in agriculture cause problems. Urbanization and industrial growth lead to pollution, health issues and a lack of education. Addressing these issues is crucial for a more equitable and sustainable Pakistan. As per UNDP predictions, Pakistan’s population might exceed 403 million by 2050 if the country’s present growth rate is not addressed. Population growth at the rate of 2.4 percent has eroded fruits of higher economic growth for Pakistan.
In a ‘capital poor’ and technologically backward country, rapid growth of population reduces output by lowering the per capita availability of capital and diminishes the availability of capital per head which reduces the productivity of the labour force. As a result, income is reduced and capacity to savings is diminished which, in turn, adversely affects capital formation. Due to higher population growth rate, investment requirements are beyond its investing capacity in the country. Rapid growth in population increases the requirements of demographic investment which at the same time reduces the capacity of the people to save. This creates a serious imbalance between investment requirements and the availability of investible funds, hence the entire investment is absorbed by demographic investment and nothing is left for economic development.
We need to understand that a fast growth in population means a large number of persons coming to the labour market for which it may not be possible to provide employment. In fact, in a country like Pakistan, the number of job seekers is expanding so fast that despite all efforts towards planned development, it has not been possible to provide employment to all. Unemployment, underemployment and disguised employment are our common features today. 2.4 percent annual increase in population means more mouths to feed. Being an agricultural country and despite all our efforts, good or bad apart, for raising agricultural production, we are not able to fully feed our population. Food scarcity affects economic development, inadequate supply of food leads to undernourishment of the people which lowers their productivity. It further reduces the production capacity of the workers and the deficiency of food compels them to import food grains which places an unnecessarily strain on their foreign exchange resources.
It is agreed that rapid growth of population is largely responsible for the perpetuation of vicious circle of poverty in developing countries like Pakistan. With their higher population, people spend major part of their income on bringing up their children which results in maintaining the savings and rate of capital formation at least level, reduction in per capita income, rise in general price level leading to sharp rise in cost of living. Pakistan being declared a welfare state in the constitution is pledged to meet social needs of the people adequately and for this, the government has to spend a lot on providing basic facilities like education, housing and medical aid but rapid increase in population makes the burden all the heavier.
More important than any other is that population explosion is the key reason for illiteracy in Pakistan. People prefer to engage their children in economic activities, rather than providing them education. The government cannot ignore or shelve the problem of population explosion, for it is a rot and the entire development of the country depends on how effectively it is stemmed. Although Pakistan has witnessed higher economic growth in the previous years, it is unable to adjust its economic structure. Higher population growth has implications for natural resources. Pakistan could not replicate the industrial countries’ transition because of its inability to modernise agriculture or develop an industrial base. In Pakistan this high-rate population growth is a cause for poverty, environmental degradation and high debt levels. Pakistan has to control population explosion for various reasons. Pakistan has socio-religious problems which are hampering its development efforts.
To lessen the exclusion of marginalised communities from opportunities, social and economic policies must be integrated with population policies. This covers spending on skills, health, education and export-driven growth. Governments ought to support literacy, contraception and youth engagement in national issues. The irony is we do not own any ministry at federal level but a Trust called National Trust for Population Welfare (NATPOW) headed by a DG working under the Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination. Scope of NATPOW is limited in absence of sufficient budgetary allocation, minimal assigned targets and insignificant organizational structure, thus, its performance is far below requirement. It is high time that the government, both federal and the provincial, should seriously activate and engage population departments, adopt official programme to build public opinion in reducing birth rate so that the population can fit in well with the evolving pattern of our developing economy.
—The writer is PhD in Political Science and visiting faculty member at QAU Islamabad.
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views expressed are writer’s own.
