ISLAMABAD – Like last month, above-normal rains and temperatures are expected in Pakistan during September 2025.
In August 2025, Pakistan received above-normal rains during August 2025 with three spells of light to heavy intensity, including a few isolated episodes of very heavy rainfall. These triggered severe urban and flash flooding, particularly in the northern and northeastern areas.
Temperatures remained near normal to slightly above normal across much of the country, with a maximum positive anomaly in Gilgit-Baltistan.
The state of the global earth system suggests that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently in a marginally negative phase, is expected to persist in this state during the forecast month.
Similarly, the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also likely to continue through September.
September Rains:
Near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country, with maximum departures in northeastern Punjab and southeastern Sindh. In contrast, the northern parts of the country, including northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and adjoining areas of Kashmir, are expected to receive below normal rainfall.
Temperature:
Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal over mountainous regions in the northern and western parts of the country. The plain areas of eastern Punjab are expected to experience near-normal temperatures during September 2025.
Impacts:
Isolated extreme rainfall events may lead to urban flooding in the first fortnight of September. Although temperatures are decreasing, a short warming episode or an extreme rainfall event may still trigger GLOFs in Northern Pakistan, necessitating vigilant monitoring and disaster preparedness.
Due to the normal to above-normal rainfall, farmers are advised to follow periodic agro-meteorological bulletins. Sufficient availability of water in reservoirs will provide a positive impact on irrigation and power generation. A dengue outbreak is also likely in inundated areas.
